Greetings, fellow enthusuasts and welcome to June 1st and thus the start of a new year of the competition.

I just decided to post this in reminder that the competition draws near as it is in 17 days.

We've been through a lot, especially when it comes to killing time since last August. It's hard to believe time has expired since then, again.

And what fabulous weather we've had in the fast 3 days, despite the thunderstorms, and taking into consideration that only about 10-15% of the month of May was adequate. Lets just hope it will stay like what the forecast is telling me.

Anyways, we can use this thread as a countdown. Also, if anyone knows anything new about the competition, let me know here.

In the meantime, bring on the heat.

Best regards,

Trav.

Summer is certainly here. I fired my first display of the season this past Saturday and the weather was perfect. Let's hope that it will continue for the next two months!

Cheers,

Paul.

Bad news.
http://www.meteomedia.com/meteo/14jours/pages/CAQC0295.htm

Don't worry. That 14 day trend graph they have has been consistently wrong the past few weeks and certainly didn't predict the past few days' heat.

Cheers,

Paul.

lol, Meteomedia is the worst weather channel I've ever seen in my 26 years whole life. He can't predict the weather for tomorrow, so imagine for 14 days...

Enkil and Paul,

As Paul said, do not worry about that new feature they have. The 14 day trend is simply giving us an idea of what "could" happen around that time. However, since the release of this new graphical analysis, it has been proven wrong more than 90% of the time.

I've constructed my own graph that symbolizes the initial predictions that were displayed on the TWN graph respectively. I then followed into the given week and it was quite the opposite. The initial prediction for the week, 2 weeks ago, was that we could expect below normal temperatures with abundant amounts of rainfall. I kept that prediction and then made my own graph of the real temperatures and conditions. And my, what a difference when I compared the 2. When this week came, or since June started for that matter, it has been amazinly hot with above normal values. I enjoyed every minute of it and enjoyed contradicting the other predictions. In my opinion, it's a rather useless model. Since the day it came out, I've been consistently checking it and the outcomes of the given days, but it's not something to really rely on.

The graph just gives us a brief hypothesis or interpretation of what could possibly happen. If you look at the graph in consecutive days, it can have big variations and floctuate enormously at times.

Anyways, Enkil, did you get my email? And did you and Paul hear or see the thunderstorm this morning at about 5:00 and 9:30 a.m? It wasn't too bad. I've actually seen 7 storms this year so far.

As for your display, Paul, I'm very happy to know that you had perfect weather to launch it successfully. And yes, I'm sure the weather will cooperate like last year's incredible record of excellent conditions, but that's no guarantee. It'll be tough to beat a weather record like last year. Ironically, it happened on the 20th anniversary.

Actually, I'll be posting regularly, like last year, about the latest weather conditions for each display as they get closer. Don't worry, you can count on me and Enkil for weather conditions.

Regards,

Trav.

The graph has already changed, but it still indicates below normal temperatures at that time. But there's still time for improvement.

Take a look:

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/weather/14day/pages/CAQC0363.htm?CAQC 0363

Trav.

I think it's cold front that will hit us for a week. But who knows it might spare us.

Smoke, I've sent you an email days ago check your email box.

Enkil,

Well it seems that a cold front is an apparent reason, especially since the graph is still indicating that the temperatures will start to drop as of June 14th and slowly decrease to below normal values on the following day and onwards. Or maybe it's a big area of low pressure that's going to be persistent for a while. But still, we'll have to wait and see. I'm going to keep a close eye on it. I'm not going to say that the graph is right just yet as it is too early, but chances are...

Anyways, my graduation ceremony is later this afternoon, but there is a slight risk of a thunderstorm this afternoon and this evening.

As for the email, no, I haven't received it. Do you think you can send it again? Hopefully it will get through this time.

BTW, how is all the studying going?

Trav.

Smoke, you 2 emails, which one do you want me send it to?

It will defently going to be cold next week end. Horrible, 11 C Imagine how cold it will be at night.

We won't hit 30 C for a week!

I don't believe the forecast for a moment. A week ago, this weekend was supposed to be cool and rainy; same two weeks ago for last weekend. Meteomedia is hopeless at long range forecasts - and even short term ones. Look at last summer - they were wrong most of the time. I find the Environment Canada forecast is more likely to be correct:

http://weather.ec.gc.ca/city/pages/qc-147_metric_e.html

Anyway, I hope I'm right in that it will be fine next Saturday evening.

Cheers,

Paul.

It might change, but I doubt we will hit 30 C cause there's defently a cold front coming. They've been announcing it for a week now

I wish they could push back the schedule if that's the case lol
This sucks big time, I want a weekend like this one.

Guys,

After a sizzling start to June till now, we have been under a hot, hazy and humid, the 3 Hs, airmass that has been rather unstable and producing heavy and severe thunderstorms in many isolated areas, including a couple not far from Montreal. Ever since June started, we have been blessed with hot weather which is courtesy of high pressure in the Atlantic Ocean delivering warm, moist and humid air from the Gulf of Mexico and thus giving a nice ridge in the jet stream while flooding most of eastern Canada with this summer weather. This is the reason why it has been so hot, which I'm not complaining about. I mean, I have been comfortable outside at night since June began. After a terrible May, except for 2 or 3 days out of 31, it was one of the worst Mays on record! Today, the mercury rose to 33-36 Celsius. In the past few days, we had temperatures reaching over 30C which is offically declared as a heat wave. Once you have 3 or more consecutive days of temperatures hovering at 32C or more, that's a heat wave. With all the instability in the atmosphere in southern Ontario and Quebec, we could expect day time and nocturnal thunderstorms because of rediculously high dewpoints (more than 20 Celsius at times, yes, 20) and heavy humidity. All we needed was a trigger.

Anyways, despite that resume of our weather since June started, Enkil is right. We are going to see a big change in the forecast for next week. The jet stream will be a key factor here, as it always is. The jet stream is going to sink south while it rises in the west. We're going to see a difference in the airmass by then. Temperatures will really drop and there's no way we will even get close to 30C, sorry to say. It's going to be the complete opposite, in fact. One major explanation for this will be the remnants of tropical depression Arlene, which is hitting the Florida Panhandle as we speak. It will track North to the Great Lakes by Sunday-Monday or possibly later as it could slow down. This IS going to play a role in our forecast. The other thing that will cool us down by Wednesday or later is a secondary low pressure system. This will bring in cooler and cleaner air, but it's too early to speculate where and when it's going to hit. There will be a cool down. In respect to the 14 day trend, I'm sorry to say that it was right this time. We will see below normal temperatures, although not too substantial, and some rainfall. In plain coincidence, it seems that June 18th is the worst day of all with an expected high of 12C. However, the remnants of Arlene may be done and over with well before the end of the week, but we can still expect below normal temperatures, most likely, but no guarantees. Then, as I said, there will probably be another system that we'll have to contend with after that.

I'm not drawing any conclusions for the 18th yet as it is still too early, and as Paul said, TWN, or Meteomedia, is lousy at long term forecasts, but I would say that they're usually accurate in short term weather. According to the 5 forecast displayed by Environment Canada, it's pretty much identical to that of TWN, give or take a couple of degrees.

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/weather/cities/can/Pages/CAQC0363.htm

If I had to predict a more profitable forecast, here's what I would say.

Travis' personal prediction and reasons:

1-It most likely wouldn't be 12C since that is a little exagerated. I'm pretty sure they would raise that up since this is long range.
2-Judging from Arlene's speed, it should be over well before Saturday. And I'm not saying that it will necessarily pass through here. It's still hard to predict.
3-It probably won't be an all day rain scenario. Chances are, since it's long term, it would probably be scattered showers or completely different conditions.
4-It's most likely that the temperatures will get much cooler than we've been seing thus far. I can't really disagree on that.
5-Even if it does indeed rain, we still don't know the evening forecast.
6-ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN IN 7 DAYS!!!

In respect to Saturday's forecast, we really can't make any speculations or interpretations on what "could" happen. We must remember that the weather is always changing, so I'm more than certain that many changes can happen till then. There's no right or wrong answer here. We'll just have to wait and see since the long range is all over the place more than 80% of the time. The 14 day trend was a good indicator for expectatons for this week for the past little while, unlike in recent past, but it is overly exagerated for predicting in terms of expected temperatures. This is why we can't trust what they're saying for that particular day. Ironically enough, that day is expected to be the worst day so far in a long time, even compared to all of May. I honestly can't believe such an extreme forecast.

In summary, it's going to get cooler, no doubt, for valid reasons, as I explained. In regards to Saturday, it's still hard to tell whether or not it's going to be good or bad. From what I can interpret, it will most likely be slightly cooler with possible precipitation, but that's a hunch. I'm not going to make radical statements since it is too far. We'll take ONE step at a time and monitor the weather day by day and see what happens. I'll be posting the latest conditions when I see them. One thing is for sure, it will not be like what we've experienced thus far.

In regards to thuderstorms, I was weather watching everyday since this muggy air flooded into here. The conditions were so setup nicely that I was expecting to see one, but I suspect we were missing the catalyst. We didn't see much of them here as they were hit and miss and very sporadic. Many of them were around Montreal and up towards Shawinigan and Gaspe yesterday. Lots of strong storms developed in southern, eastern and cental Ontario , too. For the most part, many storms encompassed our area in the past few days, but nothing too severe. I'm still going to be on the lookout for the next 2-3 days, before the cooler air sinks in!

Don't worry too much on the expected forecast, guys, anything can happen. Seriously, don't put yourselves down believing a week-from-now forecast. However, there's a rule I always follow: Whenever you get hot and humid weather like this for a long period of time, you feel that there's a catch and a price to pay for it! That's the way I usually feel. All in all, it would have been great if the competition started this weekend.

As for my email, Enkil, send it to: travis2@videotron.ca. As far as I'm concerned, that's my only email address.

Regards,

Trav.

Heh heh.....

For those of you who read my last post, you'll see what I meant by exageration in the forecast. You see? It did change. You cannot take this long term trend. However, lets not get too cocky as there is still a while before things can change. So, lets continue speculating till then. But it's good to see a massive improvement.

Take a look:

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/weather/cities/can/Pages/CAQC0363.htm

I'll be starting the new thread for the weather, like last year, so you can post any news about updates.

Regards,

Trav.