Hi guys,

As today marks 12 years since the beginning of the historical ice storm event of 1998, I thought it would be interesting to share some footage and statistics regarding it, especially seeing that it's now 2010.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YfcNRWefEEU&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cv8eij9loVQ&feature=related

This ice storm is by far the most significant natural disaster that Canada has ever known, and it is very likely nothing will come even close to matching the awesome power of the event in the years to come in this nation. The storm, lasting from January 5th to the 10th, brought with it an excess of 80 hours worth of freezing rain/drizzle in many areas spanning from Eastern Ontario all the way to Western New Brunswick, as well as in Northern New York towards the central parts of Maine. 57 communities in Ontario and over 200 in Quebec were declared a disaster. Insurance claims numbered to roughly 800,000 in both Canada and the U.S, more than any other event in the history of the world. In Eastern Ontario to Western New Brunswick, roughly 4 million were without electricity resulting from the estimated 120,000 km of downed power lines (more than 1,000 collapsed hydro pylons) and telephone cables, and 30,000 to 35,000 wooden utility poles. 130 major transmission towers were knocked down and millions of trees collapsed under the weight of the ice - roughly 5,000 of the trees at Mont Royal had to be cut down, while 80% of the park's trees had some form of damage inflicted to them by the ice. 14,000 troops were dispatched to the three affected provinces to provide assistance. By the 11th, the skies had cleared and temperatures began to drop quickly, forcing people to abandon their homes and seek shelter. In the end, the storm left as much as $6 billion (2005 US dollars) in material damage, $2 billion of which was reported in the province of Quebec by itself. A reported 35 people died and nearly 1,000 injured from this storm.

***The source of these figures is derived from TWN (The Weather Network) and Environment Canada.

This was really something to live through and to be able to tell the story year after year is rather thrilling. I recall our residence (and nearly 150,000 others) not having power restored until nearly the end of the month. Interestingly, with a little irony, the meteorological setup that led to the outrageous amounts of freezing rain shares some resemblance to the setup that recently brought us a week of enduring periods of snowfall since two days before this past New Year's Eve. This Nor'Easter, as it was known, that affected the Maritimes with as much as a foot (30 cm) of snow remained virtually stationary there for nearly a week due to an unusually strong area of high pressure situated East into the Atlantic, blocking the regular Eastward passage of storm systems. Consequently, the storm persistently delivered periods of snow to many areas Westward due to its somewhat slow retrograde movement - here in Montreal, we received about 25 cm worth of snow bit by bit, the bulk of which fell within the first three days of this month (ironically with several hours of freezing drizzle today). The storm has also indirectly led to dramatic snowsqualls (some areas locally receiving close to a meter of snow) in Southwestern Ontario coming off from particularly both Georgian Bay and Lake Huron.

Now, with an area of high pressure moving in from the West, this will be inviting some quite cold conditions this weekend and perhaps into the first couple of days into the work week. The Arctic air is also reaching as far South into Florida with its icy grip, causing concerns of damage to citrus crops there due to possible frost forming tonight and the next couple of nights/mornings. Bangladesh, South Korea, China and Europe have also been witnessing some very unusual harsh Winter weather.

Trav.

Hey there again, guys,

I just wanted to provide a site (CNN) that has a list of useful links to organizations (Red Cross, C.A.R.E, UNICEF, etc.) where you are given the opportunity to donate money to help the people in Haiti during the aftermath of the powerful 7.0 magnitude earthquake that had struck near the capital, Port-au-Prince, yesterday afternoon (January 12th). The situation is simply catastrophic, and I can only pray that the death toll does not rise to the number that they are currently projecting. Fortunately, the weather is cooperating for continuing search efforts, mostly because the Caribbean is now in its dry season. It is also very fortunate that this event did not occur during hurricane season.

In any case, your donation means a lot.

Edit: Here's a link to a wider selection of organizations to which you may make a donation:

[url=http://www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/2007/impact/
]http://www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/2007/impact/
[/url]

Trav.

Hi guys,

I thought it would be interesting to post my personal weather outlook/predictions for this coming Spring, especially since the season is expected to officially commence in just a little less than a week's time (March 20th, at 1:32 p.m. EDT).

The reason for my prediction of a mild Winter this past year is simply because of the building El Nino signatures that were present since last Summer - in fact, this El Nino event turned out to be significant enough to become the 4th strongest since 1972-1973 once it reached its peak in early January. An El Nino event often causes extreme global weather anomalies when the signal is particularly high, as was the case for the last couple of months. Most notable events was the persistent dry weather in Australia (as well as the great flood and hailstorm in parts of Queensland recently), the record-breaking snowfall in the Northeastern U.S, frequent powerful Nor'Easters, numerous flooding events in parts of South America (such as in Argentina), severe wind storms and snowstorms in Europe, drought in parts of the Caribbean, frequent cold spells in the Southeastern U.S (particularly in Florida), a very inactive previous hurricane season, and an early start to tornado activity in the U.S Midwest. Just recently, too, there has been a severe windstorm as well as flooding in the Northeastern U.S. With respect to Canada, the story has been the persistent mild to warm weather combined with very little snow for most of the Winter across much of the country. As such, the polar jet stream was shifted further to the North during the Winter, allowing for steady flows of warm moist air to enter much of Canada, strengthening storm systems and making them numerous while keeping them South of the border, namely South of Eastern Canada.

December was likely the more Winter-like month, even though the harshest conditions happened to fall at the end of Autumn. However, the month was still above normal with respect to temperatures and possessed our only snowstorm (roughly 28 cm worth), so far, since November (November being one of the warmest on record). The two major cold spells occurred just past mid December and at the very end of January into the first few days of February. January was generally very warm, including a day possessing a daytime high nearly attaining 10 C (January 26th). Overnight lows very scarcely went below the -20 C threshold for the month (the coldest night being -21.6 C). Nearly 33% of the month had daytime highs above freezing. February continued on being as much as 3 degrees Celsius above average (both daytime highs and overnight lows) with very little snow - remember that large expanses of grass were exposed for the vast majority of the Winter. March has been stellar thus far with a real taste of Spring this past week - the feeling enhanced by the longer days and a stronger sun. Interestingly, this March may also not, for the first time in recorded history, have a single day where the temperature was below 0 C for daytime highs - I'm sort of crossing my fingers for that, especially since the weather could be briefly cooling down to seasonal standards once we advance past the arrival of Spring.

To put our accumulated snowfall (in Montreal, a city known for its snow) into perspective, using the 1971-2000 climate averages, our mean snowfall amount running from October to April is 217.5 cm, or ~7 feet. This year, we've only received 148.6 cm (shy of 5 feet), some 68 cm (just over two feet) less than the yearly average. However, the 149 cm value is a little deceiving as we need to remember that temperatures additionally were usually well above average, and so the actual snow depth on the ground never exceeded 20 cm (2/3 of a a foot) from December up until this point in time - this signals that much of the snow that did in fact fall was, more often than not, in the form of heavy wet snow. In that regard, daily maximum temperatures have been as much as 3-4 degrees Celsius above monthly averages while overnight lows seldom went below -15 C (certainly not a combination that is conducive to adequately freezing major bodies of water to an ideal depth). Needless to say, this has been a great Winter, especially after the harsh two consecutive ones we came across over the last two years, possibly due to, in part, La Nina. Summer of last year, too, was one of the coolest on record, so this Winter is, ideally, some compensation for that loss. This is/was my kind of Winter...now if only every Winter season could exhibit conditions like this one...

As El Nino continues to dwindle slowly, I feel its lingering existence will allow for similar weather patterns across North America to persist this Spring, though with temperatures becoming milder, this should decrease the likelihood of major snowstorms (still very well possible, of course). Ideally, assuming a consistent jet stream pattern, this would cause our Spring in Eastern Canada to be overall dry in nature along with persistent mild conditions.

Summer is where it gets a little tricky, even though the models are exhibiting some similarities amongst themselves. I feel that this Summer may be quite the contrast from last year's with more incidences of hot and humid conditions, though an increase in severe weather/thunderstorms is also very possible in that regard due to elevated moisture content and warmer temperatures. Comparatively, however, although the Summer of 2005 was one of the hottest on record, there were surprisingly very few t-storms that erupted that year by contrast to 2006, which was also an El Nino year and a hot/humid one as well. El Nino is expected to significantly weaken by that point in time to likely neutral standards, but I pesonally feel that its effects will possibly continue to linger as a result of a delayed adjustment in global atmospheric circulation patterns to the changes in the Eastern equatorial Pacific. All in all, it is with a fair likelihood that we should witness a normal to above normal Summer this year with respect to temperatures. Assuming a warm, but dry Summer, my only concern, then, is that this may result in drought-like conditions since we've had so little snow this Winter and possibly below average rainfall for this Spring. Water levels, too, could remain at lower levels in that regard.

I also suspect that a weak El Nino could possibly continue into the Summer as opposed to completely dissipating, as illustrated in some of the models. Should that be the case, there is a chance that this will cause hurricane season to be below average/delayed in activity by the time we hit August. Other models suggest neutral conditions, favoring normal hurricane activity. It should be easier to make an assessment on hurricane activity by June.

There is my analysis as well as my personal predictions for the course of the next several months.

And just a reminder, don't forget to put your clocks one hour ahead before you go to bed tonight.

Trav.

Here are some statistics (based on 1971-2000 averages) that I've tabulated to summarize some of what I've described in the above post:

December (2009):
Average snowfall: 48.3 cm
Actual snowfall: 56.4 cm (half of which fell during that snowstorm on the 9th)
Monthly average temperature (maximum and minimum averaged): -6.3 C
Actual monthly average (maximum and minimum averaged): -5.4 C
Average snow depth (by the end of the month): 13 cm
Actual snow depth (by the end of the month): 8 cm
Number of days at or above 0 C: 14
Highest temperature: 8.1 C

January:
Average snowfall: 44.8 cm
Actual snowfall: 52.5 cm
Monthly average temperature (maximum and minimum averaged): -10.4 C
Actual monthly average (maximum and minimum averaged): -6.4 C
Average snow depth (by the end of the month): 17 cm
Actual snow depth (by the end of the month): 3 cm
Number of days at or above 0 C: 10
Highest temperature: 8.4 C

February:
Average snowfall: 43.3 cm
Actual snowfall: 47.8 cm
Monthly average temperature (maximum and minimum averaged): -8.4 C
Actual monthly average (maximum and minimum averaged): -4.7 C
Average snow depth (by the end of the month): 18 cm
Actual Snow depth (by the end of the month): 2 cm
Number of days at or above 0 C: 14
Highest temperature: 4.6 C

March, so far:
Average snowfall: 36 cm
Actual snowfall: Trace
Monthly average temperature (maximum and minimum averaged): -2.3 C
Actual monthly average (maximum and minimum averaged): 7 C
Average snow depth (by the end of the month): 13 cm
Actual Snow depth (so far): Trace
Number of days at or above 0 C: All, so far
Highest temperature: 11 C

Also, one of the figures I provided in the previous post above is incorrect. February 2010's daily maximum average is about 2 C above the monthly mean and is nearly 6 C above the average monthly minimum (not 3 C for both, as I had erroneously stated before).

I hope that everyone has been well.

Trav.

Hi guys,

As Mars has been seen in the Northwestern skies yesterday evening, I just wanted to share a video I took of the planet in the way it shimmered at dusk:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pCFwstxNQhQ

Over the last couple of days, the planet has been in an opposition phase - that is, at a position that is opposite to the Sun relative to our home planet, Earth. Mars is, however, in the process of leaving this position. I therefore realize that the best nights to watch this event were actually the night of the 25th as well as the night before, when Mars was more in its true opposition phase. In addition, the crescent Moon was present two nights ago as well, though the entire spectacle was marred by overcasted conditions due to a sharp passing Arctic cold front (which brought temperatures down to well sub-zero standards yesterday).

Ideally, the celestial object continued to offer an excellent view yesterday evening, and the weather was simply perfect as the air was crisp and the skies virtually clear. I naturally, then, took the opportunity to get some video. At times, Mars appeared to be scintillating (called stellar/astronomical scintillation), but this is simply an optical effect that is likely generated when the casted light of a given celestial object (apart from the Sun and Moon) is being refracted at various angles (the air being turbulent in nature) when entering our own atmosphere before reaching the observer. Furthermore, though not to the same extent as stars, the scintillation of Mars was apparent due to constantly moving closer to the periphery of the horizon; this means that its light would have more air to pass through, and therefore be subject to further refraction. Apart from this, Mars additionally took on a salmon-like hue (the influence of the Sun) as it descended closer to horizon level.

We can similarly be vigilant for Saturn's appearance during the final evenings of March, though the weather may yet again become an obstacle as a Colorado Low begins to push Northeastward. In any case, Saturn, much like Mars, is also entering its opposition phase, and so you may look out for it in the East when dusk falls. As the evening progresses, it will gradually travel along the Southeastern skies and then towards the South, becoming more and more luminous between particularly 8-9 p.m as it gets higher in the sky. Because it is in opposition, the cream-like planet will be seen throughout the night until it sets in the West (dawn). To add to the spectacle, a moon phase (a full moon) will be present on the evening of March 29th (Monday), and so both objects will be seen close together towards the Southeastern skies and eventually towards the South - best time to catch this event would be 7:30-9 p.m EDT, weather permitting (mostly cloudy at this point). If you wish to see the rings of Saturn, you'll need a telescope. In our situation regarding the weather, the most ideal time to view Saturn would be this evening (Saturday, the 27th of March) as the weather continues to remain calm and mostly clear. Again, target the East when at dusk.
---------------------------------------------------------------------- ------
In reference to the post above, I discovered yet another incorrect figure in the March section. Where it says "Actual monthly average", it should read 2.7 C, as opposed to 7 C, for the first 15 days of March. The "7 C" was the actual average "maximum" temperature by that point in time. Similarly,"Actual monthly average" for each section is, of course, referring to temperature, which I forgot to stick in - I suppose that the temperature figures said it all, though.

Expect a nice rebound for temperatures this coming work week (a little unsettled, however) with perhaps a shot at our first 20 C by Easter (a gorgeous ridge building out West and gradually pushing East as the week unfolds). Spring, meteorologically, is commonly a roller coaster-like season in terms of weather because of a sharp contrast existing between warm air migrating Northward from the South and cold Arctic air still prominent to the North. As such, we're not entirely safe from Winter's wrath until we cross mid April - we've come to know that from the past.

Edit: Earth hour takes place tonight.

Trav.