Actually, the winds will be 15 km coming from the northeast. Should be more than enough.

Trav.

I didn't bother posting about the weather conditions until about 2 days before the given day since the expected weather conditions change frequently prior to that period.

EXCELLENT hot summer weather conditions will prevail this weekend, starting tonight into tomorrow, and throughout the next week.

The forecast is calling for very hot temperatures. About 30-33 degrees. With the help of the sun, I would estimate an additional 3 degree boost to the initial amount. However, I believe there is a slight chance of isolated showers throughout the day. I suspect that convection will be strong because of the hot, moist and humid airmass. This may cause instability during the day and perhaps the evening, but that's very slight, 30%. Whether or not anything happens, just keep in mind that the ingredients are there and it's favorable to further developments, but not a guarantee, as these storms are very sporadic. Saturday seems to be the only threat, for now.

As for the wind, we'll continue to have a southerly flow bringing moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, courtesy of high pressure. It's still a little hard to say what the actual wind speeds will be at this point in time, as they're variable. I'll have more on this later. In any case, it's going to be the complete opposite of what we've experienced last weekend. Most definitely.

Anyways, BRING ON THE HEAT!!!!!!!!!!!!! Oh yes, make sure you all wear sunscreen!

Trav.

Greetings,

I've received the latest conditions for tomorrow. All I can say, as I was telling Jerome, it that the airmass will be "juicy." This means that there will be high dewpoints and a great capacity for water vapor in the atmosphere. This being said, there will also be a weakened cold front that will come through providing additional convection, but a weak updraft. Don't worry about temperatures cooling down the following day because this is a weak cold front. It won't do anything substantial like major cold fronts do and thus the hot and humid weather will continue throughout the week until I don't know when.

The forecast is calling for a 40% chance of storms in the afternoon, but sizzling hot with highs between 32-35 degrees Celsius, as long as we have solar energy. The winds will be moderate at 20 km coming from the West. It will also be hazy and humid, obviously.

The good news is that we still don't know the evening conditions for tomorrow, but it will probably be the same idea, but with a diminished risk as a result of a loss of daytime heating. Who knows, perhaps it will be calm, but just remember that the air will be convective tomorrow and the ingredients are there to make it favorable to the developments. But remember, they wouldn't necessarily happen since they're very isolated. That's why it has a 40% figure on it. It's hard to tell where and when they can happen, but just remember that conditions are right and the possibility exists.

I'll get an update on the evening forecast later today. In the mean time, perhaps you all have other sources that say otherwise. However, I suspect that they all agree.

Post your updates here.

Regards,

Trav.

Just to update, it's a 30% chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Do you guys have any idea how hot it is tomorrow?

Trav.

As I promised, very hot weather conditions today and the rest of the week until who knows.

However, the threat remains, though slight, but still favorable, particularly this afternoon around 2:00-3:00.P.M and throughout the early evening hours. After that they will die down in the later hours. This is all because of intense humidity and extremely high dewpoints. This means that it's very convective out there. Also, there will be a weakened cold front that will pass through his afternoon that will increase the convection process. The greastest risk at seing severe storms are in southern Quebec and eastern Ontario, but, once again, not a guarantee, as the storms can happen anywhere, not everywhere, and thus a 30% figure is given for this evening and this afternoon. The evening will be a give and take chance. I'll have to keep an eye on the dewpoint and the amount of heat that's retained. But the main threat is this afternoon throughout the early evening.

Just to play it safe, I'm going to bring an umbrella, even if they drop the chance.

In the meantime, enjoy what Summer is all about!

Trav.

Well, I don't know about you guys, but it's raining here along with some rumbles of thunder. Once again, as I said before, because of convective energy and the passage of that weak cold front.

Still, to play it safe, bring an umbrella.

Trav.

There's a lot clouds here. But it hasn't rained. I highly doubt it will rain tonight. But I'll take your advise and bring an umbrella, just in case.

Hey Enkil,

I'll be leaving in about an hour or so. Anyways, yes, the storm just moved out. I know it's a slim chance of anything happening, but then again, it was a slim chance, 30%, of it happening this afternoon and it happened in my area.

I'm not saying it will happen, as I said in my previous posts, but just remember that conditions are favorable for further developments. But, I agree, there's a strong chance that nothing will happen, but don't be surprised if anything does. This is why it's best to play it safe and be prepared, although it's a rather small chance.

I was storm watching today and I wasn't surprised that something happened. I just saw so many cumulus clouds developing just after 2:00 and lots of them were just blossoming.

Other than that, it will be FAR warmer than it ever was last time. It was just terrible for me last week.

Trav.

Hey guys,

We should be fine for Saturday, though much cooler, but at least no rain.

High pressure will dominate this weekend, so it will be more clear with a cooler airmass because of that cold front that's going to pass through tomorrow (Friday) and bring in a fresh and stable airmass by Saturday. Winds will be coming from the SE at about 10 km/h followed by variable cloudiness and an associated 30% probability.

The good news is that this cooler air is temporary, as temperatures willl rebound into the mid to high 20s by Monday and even Sunday. More on this later.

Tomorrow will definitely be unstable since it's going to be hot and humid, but very wet and thundery, perhaps maybe even some heavy to severe thunderstorms can pop up. The potential is there, but no guarantees.

In all, it appears like it's going to be the same scenario like last year's Canada Day. We had one stronf storm in the morning and they kept popping up on and off throughout the day. Same kind of thing this year.

Well, what do you expect, it's Canada Day! It always rains, just like it has for Canadian displays in the competition back in the 90s!

Trav.

This evening should be comfortable with temperatures around 21C. The winds should be light to moderate gusts, but mostly stable at 10 km/h coming from the West.

I was just in downtown earlier today watching the parade on Rene-Levesque and the winds were pretty breezy and do make it feel slightly cooler. If anything, just bring a windbreaker, in case.

In all, not nearly as warm as it was last week, but at least it's still pleasant, unlike the Australian display's weather.

Enjoy the show.

Trav.

Everything looks fine for Saturday, until further notice. It will be rather warm to hot conditions. More details as Saturday gets closer.

Trav.

Guys,

Despite what was excellent conditions from what I said 3 days ago, it appears that tomorrow will be wet, courtesy of the remnants of Cindy. The rain should start sometime overnight while the clouds associated with it are apparent as we speak. The rain should continue to fall all afternoon tomorrow with some decent amount of precipitation followed by an 80% chance. The temperature will be seasonally cooler by at least 4 degrees Celsius, resulting in an expected high of around 23. The winds should be relatively light during the day at 10 km/h, but as in typical low pressure systems, they can be variable and can be gusty at times, but generally, it shouldn't be wild. They'll also be coming from the North and the West.

I've been tracking this system since it hit the southern U.S and it was pretty tricky in the way it was travelling. It was going in a fixed position at an East, Northeast (ENE) fashion for some time, but it started shifting in a more northerly fashion while maintaining an eastward motion. This is why I didn't post the latest conditions. I figured that the storm would stay well South of the border and go over the Northen New England states and hit the southern coastlines of Nova Scotia. If anything, the most I would have suspected would be that it would barely skim Montreal with it's bordering wall clouds in the outer sections, but it was hard to say.

Anyhow, we still have some hope. We don't know the evening forecast just yet and still I feel that this system is still skimming us, just with rain fall. And judging from it starting overnight tonight, chances are that it will move out by the evening hours, hopefully. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if they change the conditions from straight light rain to scattered showers and thus a 40% chance. According to some maps, it's still hard to tell on even some of the later models.

I'm still not exactly sure on the speed of the system. I'll work on that. In the meantime, if anyone knows its speed, you could tell me. It will help me make an assumption of when it could leave.

It's rather amusing, though frustrating at the same time. From Sunday onward it's going to be hot. Prior to Saturday it was relatively dry and pleasant, despite that big thunderstorm that gave torrential rains and flooding back on Tuesday.

Regards,

Trav.

Smoke,

It just changed to 60%

I don't think we should take it very seriously.

If you take a look at this satellite image, you can clearly see that the system isn't big. But it's moving slow!
http://edition.cnn.com/WEATHER/NAmerica/sat.anim.html

And notice it says "Près de 5 mm". That's nothing big.

Well, I predicte that it will be clear with a few clouds, but it will warm and a bit humid as the temperature rises.

Enkil,

Yes, I just saw the update. It is, indeed, 60%, though it is slighly higher tonight and tomorrow morning. But yes, 5 mm is nothing too big, but if we get steadier rain at any given time, I would put a 5-10 mm figure on that, though that's still not significant.

The satellite image link from CNN is comprehensive enough to see the dynamics of the storm, but it has less detail since it's on smaller scale. I've also checked with other models and you can see that classical counter-clockwise spin. It seems well defined, too. Though it isn't such a big system, it isn't small either and it does, indeed, seem to be moving slow, for the moment. Given it's size and speed, it's still hard to speculate, but I suspect that even if it clear out by the evening hours, we could still expect, possibly some lingering sporadic showers. In essence, the slower it moves, the longer it will "feel" for it to leave.

But, I agree with you. I'm also staying with my earlier prediction and saying that it could still clear out, like you said, but it could also remain overcast, but no rain. That's usually how it works with these kinds of systems.

Anyhow, it's best if we wait for the evening forecast, which should be released in a few hours.

Regards,

Trav.

Well, I got an update for tomorrow evening. It appears my prediction was right. It will be maily cloudy cloudy with a 30% chance of precip. The winds should be good enough to blow smoke away. As I also predicted, the perciptation amounts have changed to 5-10 mm. Also, the temperature has dropped to about 21 and should stay there during the evening, so it should be sustainable and pleasant.

But don't rule out the chance of rain just yet. More updates as we get closer.

This is good news, in any case.

Regards,

Trav.