Greetings,

I'm sorry about the title. I meant we could expect possible threatening weather for the display on Saturday. Don't be alarmed!

Anyways, I've been keeping my eye on the weather for the last couple of days, and so far the forecast for Saturday, June 12th, it's going to predominantly be overcast with showers and thunderstorms, followed by a 70%chance of precipitation, but it will be quite humid and hot with a high of 28 degrees with relatively calm winds.

I'm not trying to discourage everyone. This is still quite a long period of time until Saturday. There's still a pretty strong chance that the weather could, in fact, change, as it usually does. I'm sure it will change for the best. The good news is that we still don't know the actual forecast for "Saturday evening" just yet. However, if it does rain prior to the display, it can potentially cause some problems during the show.

Now please, don't worry too much about the weather. This is just what it says so far and I'm just informing you.

I will continue to monitor the weather forecast and make updates if they're any changes, whatsoever.

It's pretty ironic that the weather is threatening a Canadian display, once again!

I really hope that it changes!!!!

Trav.

Hello again,

I just got an update on the forecast for Saturday and it's good news!!! Just as I suspected, it did change for the best.

The forecast is now calling for a 30% probability of precipitation followed by cloudy periods. The temperature now droped to roughly 22-25 degrees. The winds will still be relatively light in nature and the humidity has also droped, so it won't affect the fireworks. The winds, on the other hand, should be strong enough to clear the smoke quickly.

Just forget about what I said before! Ampleman will have a perfect day forecast for their presentation.

However, I don't want to jinx anything, as the forecast has a chance to change again! I will still continue to watch the forecast and notify you guys if they're any changes.

Regards,

Trav.

unfortunatly i wont be able to attend the show, i have exams next week, a roller coaster ride for me

but things wont get better, i have bunch of families coming from around the world to our house, for vacation, althro its not confirmed

this is bad for me, cuz the car wont be around, it will be difficult

plus the metro Henri-Bourrassa closed, doesnt help

ill see, i will try to attend as much as i can

Enkil,

Long time no see.

I have to admit, but that really sucks! However, your exams are important. I finished school about a month ago, so it's not a bother, for me.

I really hope you could attend, somehow, but from looking at the type of situation you're in, it doesn't look like it.

Really, it would be more fun if you could show up, because this way we could get your opinion in addition to everyone else here, about the display. This is a very special year, after all.

Anyways, I hope you'll be able to see the majority of them. I really don't want you to miss out!

Regards,

Trav.

Hello everyone,

I just have an update on the weather for Saturday, June 19th. So far the weather is stable, but with possible scattered showers, followed by a 40% chance of precipitation. The winds will be relatively moderate and coming from the west. The skies should stay faily cloudy with some sunny breaks and the temperature will be comfortable, ranging from anywhere between 22-25 degrees. Temperature could be higher, though, providing there's enough solar energy.

In summary, Spain should be safe. As always, I will continue to monitor further changes and inform you guys if needed.

Trav.

Italy looks like it's getting a beautiful hot summery day with lots of sun and calm winds followed by a 0% chance of precipitation and a wonderful high of 27-30 degrees celcius! Finally!

I know that for Marutamaya and Igual, it was perfect, but down- right chilly! It looks like an improvement for this coming Saturday!

Regards,

Trav.

Hello,

Just to inform you that there's a 40% probability of precipitation tomorrow, in the form of thunderstorms. Should be relatively warm, but not like IPON, unfortunaltely. Winds will also be moderate, and dewpoints should be high, which should give way to some heavier humidity, which should help the humidex values in terms of temperature.

Shouldn't be that bad, plus this isn't the evening forcast.

Trav.

toomorow's night weather forcast is now up: no rain, just clouds, the moon and 20% cha. of rain

i was checking multiple sources, on tv, EC, etc, some r saying 60% (afternoon)

but theres no big clouds coming, and u can see Sunday its sunny, its prolly just a destalized system
the risk is there, but even if it rains, it could rain heavy (at times) but it wont last, for sure!

i know this, since ive learned weather stuff when i was a kid

anyways, i say, just go out there every one and enjoy, i have a feeling this Spain display will be tight!

Smoke, i will look carefully where i stand toomorow, and i will let u know

Yes, I know quite a bit about the weather myself. I do know that if it does rain heavy, you know right away it can be, most of the time, heavily associated with a thunderstorm because thunderstorms produce heavier rains, and as a result, thunderstorms are often short lived and bingo, rain should end soon, even if there's no thunderstorm. Heavy rain ends rather quickly, but different story for lighter precipitation of this form. However, a heavy rainstorm can flare up again, as long as there's enough moisture, humidity, and of course, solar energy, followed by high dewpoints, creating high humidex values. As long as they're these factors, the risk is there, once again. That's convectional precipitation! This usually happens in chains, although it doesn't look like that's the case today, from what I observe out there! Plus, humidity is not that high! That should prevent the trigger and lift! Whew!

Aside from that, the weather is looking very nasty out there, in my area, in the west island. I don't know about you guys.

Currently, the rain is or was falling very heavy! As I said before, it ended up being short lived, so it's moved out.

Anyways, I've checked in with the weather updates and it looks like this evening is going to be just fine, with comfortable temperatures to back it up and also, relatively stable winds. It wouldn't be like IPON's weather, though. The winds should be good enough to clear up the smoke quickly. This also followed by a 10-20% chance of precip. And yes, I do agree. Most of the weather sources I checked with say the greatest chance of precip. is in the afternoon, 60%, which did happen in the form of heavy rain, which lasted for about 1/2 hour. It was a big soaking, though!

As for where you stand, remember I stand right next to the traffic light on the median at De Lorimier and Notre-Dame intersection. You can see pretty much all the low level effects, too. Just make sure that you stand on a higher slope and angle, so this way, it's to your advantage. The best view is still the steel gate on Notre-Dame, but you'll have to go early.

Enkil's right, don't worry too much about the weather, although this afternoon looked deceiving! Don't let it fool you. Enjoy what Spain has to offer tonight!! Remember......THIS IS SPAIN!!!

BTW, will the earlier rainfall cause problems during the display?

Best Regards,

Trav.

no Smoke, the rain never causes problems, cuz the fireworks r protected with a bag (those blue bags)

anyways, im going tonight, theres no rain tonight, i check again

Yeah, I guess you're right, Enkil.

I'm sure that the smoke build up was weather-related, though.

However, the main threat of rain still very much persists for Holland's show!

The forcast is currently saying, and has been for a while, that heavy thunderstorms and overcast skies will prevail for the day. This also followed by an 80% chance of precipitation.Winds will also be moderate at 15-20km/h, coming from the southeast, but there will be heavy humidity, which may very well give the lift needed to activate the storms. This hasn't changed for a while now! Hopefully, that wouldn't be the case!

The good news is that we still don't know the evening forcast, just yet. However, if high levels and percentages of humidity continue to be constant and at high values, this could also affect smoke build up, making it thicker, but providing there's enough wind!

As always, I will make further updates, if anything changes.

Regards,

Trav.

Keep us informed - I hope the weather doesn't delay air travel - our plane is supposed to get in at 5:30 - I figured that would be plenty of time for the 10;00 show, but now I'm getting nervous.

It still doesn't look like much has changed. I think it's just going to stay that way.

Still showers and thunderstorms with an 80% chance. However, don't let that dampen your spirit. I wouldn't take out the possibility just yet! Still a chance of changing! Plus, as I said before, we still don't know the evening forcast!

Regards,

Trav.

i think soon we will need a miricle (toomorow is the last day), it has to change!

i have a good news and a bad news

good news: Environment Canada is reporting 60% with mixed sun and rain for Wednesday

bad news: Thursday, constant rain, that most likely means, Wednesday night the clounds and rain will come and stay constantly

what we could hope is to get a break Wednesday night, like 40% or maybe 60% of rain, in this case it would be ok to go, but if its 80% then theres a problem

i wish i could do something lol

So if it is storming, from what I've heard the show will go on. Any hints on that (besides appropriate storm gear)? We will go, rain or shine, but might need a recommendation of a good place to go warm up and dry out after the show. We'll be travelling by Metro.

Alan

Greetings,

GREAT NEWS!!!! The weather will be cooperating! I just received the latest update and everything has changed for the best.

The new and improved weather forcast is calling for mainly sunny skies with a 0% chance of precipitation. The winds remain the same at 15km/h, so that's good.

Now, I agree with Enkil. I say this because I do know that a strong upper level low is approaching from Ontario in a southwest and west fashion. This is also going to be associated with a weak cold front which will act as a trigger to activate the showers/thunderstorms. From what I see in this system, it's got a lot of moisture and lift with it, so this will give way to thunderstorms on Thursday. However, this being said, I have a feeling that this system may push in to the southern Quebec region during the late P.M hours of Wednesday. I've checked several weather maps of the trend of this system and it appears that at the velocity this system is travelling, it could arrive at that time. So, in essence, we could still be spared. The rain may hold off until overnight.

I've also got some other reasoning for this. I've taken a glimpse at Ottawa's forcast for tomorrow and they're reporting a 70-80% chance of thunderstorms, all day. This is the same scenario for other adjacent cities. That's why I wouldn't take out the chance. Plus the speed that it's moving at!

Don't get me wrong. We still don't know tomorrow's evening forcast. The day is looking sunny with a warm 25-28 degrees Celcius. The only thing I'm concerned about is the evening hours, which I will monitor closely. I have a feeling that the most we could expect during the evening is a 30-40%.

Alan, just to play it safe, bring an umbrella with you and try to find a place to get shelter, in case of anything. I could be wrong. Maybe we'll just experience more clouds in the evening. It depends.

I guess we can't complain. The weather has significantly changed. I also have this gut instinct that Holland might be spared, despite what I've said!

Anyways, I'll still inform you all if anything changes. Anything is possible!

Regards,

Trav.

Well, just got another update.

Now it says a 40% chance of thundershowers in the afternoon. Everything else is still the same. I guess the system is coming faster than I thought. I fear the same for the evening hours.

Everyone, just bring an umbrella and jacket, in case of anything. At least the chances are lower than what it said for the past few days! It's 80%/2!

Alan, make sure that you bring the proper gear tomorrow. The chance may greater in the evening. Sigh... We can only hope for the best for the evening.


Sorry about boosting your spirits.....and my own.


Trav.

well, we will very soon get Wednesday's evening forcast (im scared! lol)

heres my last perdication

Environment Canada says "Becoming cloudy in the afternoon followed by showers. Risk of a thunderstorm" for Wednesday

so in the afternoon the clouds will enter, now, u cant quickly expect rain to come depending if the system is strong

now, it will really depends how strong this system is, once it comes in

were lucky that the system isnt entering sooner than predicted

this is very interessing, we still have hope, we must MUST get a 40% or 60% for the evening (fingers crossed)

Are there any other reasons for cacelling besides excessive winds? I have a 300+ mile trip to make to get to La Ronde Wednesday, and I'd rather not make it if it gets cancelled because of some rain. Should I go or not?

George

Enkil,

I know what you mean. I still agree with you. The system is looking like it's moving at a steady pace. As I said before, it's a strong upper level low with a lot of moisture in the atmosphere with it, so therefore, it will provide some descent rains and possibly ignite some strong thunderstorms in sounthern Quebec and southern Ontario. The system is also associated with a weak cold front, which plays a role in triggering possible thunderstorms in the afternoon tomorrow. The system itself won't arrive here until the later hours of the day, meaning overnight and possibly the evening. That's my prediction. The chances may become greater as the day goes on, especially as night time approaches. The thunderstorms during the day are just the first parts of this system and are strenghtening because of daytime heating and humidity.

The reasons behind the thunderstorms are because of the of the humid airmass that we're in today and the latter part of tomorrow. The humid airmass will coincide with the cooler air along the cold front and trigger the storms. This is usually the case with the storms. All you need is the solar energy, moisture and humidity and you've got them poppping all over the place. This is a similar case for tomorrow's weather. Another main problem is if it rains during the day and the sun comes out, it can lead to a series of "chain storms" or, if you prefer, convectional precipitation. that's another problem. i've seen storm clouds grow rapidly with the energy from the sun.

Anyways, so yes, it is a relatively significant system on the way coming from the southwest and west from Ontario. For sure, the signs of it coming are usually associated with increased cloud cover, so there's an indicator. Hopefully that's the case and as you say, hopefully the chances will remain at least at 40%. The speed and time it takes to get here totally depends on its velocity and volume. This one is strong and is moving at a descent pace. This is why I predict a stronger chance of rain during the evening hours, although it may not happen, I hope!

The system is quite big. And you can see that the next couple of days are warm, but wet/thundery.

And George, I would tell you to come! The winds aren't a big issue tomorrow. The heaviest of rain shouldn't arrive so early. So, it's safe for you to come. Don't worry about it. It's not like there's severe weather enough to cancel flights in and out of Montreal!

I'm also keeping my fingers crossed. I'll post an update of the weather for the evening for Wednesday, as soon as I get it.

Regards,

Trav.

MORE GOOD NEWS!!!!

The weather (for now) is really cooperating tomorrow evening! The forcast is calling for variable cloudiness with a comfortable low of 22 degrees! Plus, the chance of rain is 20%! Great for Holland!

However, for some reason, I still don't trust this forcast. I've observed Ottawa's evening forcast and they're having straight rain and thunderstorms with a 90% chance.

It's still possible to change, that's all I'm saying.

Anyways, you may think I'm a let down, but we have to consider the possibilty. I will monitor it closely.

I hope that the forcast I'm seing before me right now is what stays for the next 24 hours!

Regards,

Trav.

OMG!

the evening: 20% chances!!!!! no rain!!

i hope it stays that way! no surprise plz! lol

we must look at this carefully! its a miricles! damn we got the luck is with us!

Well...for what it is worth, I just checked the QPF charts at the NOAA Hydrometeorological Prediction center, and as of now, Western Quebec shouldn't get much more than a sprinkle or a light shower through the 10PM timeframe. Their charts dont show measurable precip until between 10 and midnight. Hopefully the system will keep slowing down, as it appears to be doing. This does not, however, rule out a stray thunderstorm, but at least that could be waited out if necessary, the bulk of the constant stuff could hold off until afterwards.

I'm not a meteorologist though, so no lynching if it actually does rain.

George

So far, so good.

The evening is looking relatively calm with winds exceeding no more than in the 15-20 km/h range. Temperature wise, it should stay at 22 degrees.

Now, I've checked several weather maps from different sources, and so far the strong upper level low system is still moving in the same direction, but with less velocity. However, this is not substantial.

Also, I wouldn't take out the possibility of rain during the evening hours, just yet, although it says 20% chance. I say this because the dynamics are still in the atmosphere tomorrow evening from daytime heating and humidity, which, in fact still makes the airmass quite unstable, giving way to precipitation in the form of rain and/or thunderstorms. Plus, this system carries a lot of moisture and is associated with a weak cold front, acting as a trigger once mixed witht the more humid air. Don't take my word for it! I'm just saying that it's still a possibility!

As for the speed of the system, you're right. It is showing some signs of slowing, which could be responsible for the 20% chance tomorrow evening, thus making it arrive later at night, but this decrease in speed is not that substantial. So, in essence, there's a good chance of being spared.

As I said before, though, I've also checked with some evening forcasts with adjacent cities, like Ottawa or even closer, Cornwall. Both are seing rain and thudershowers in the evening with high chances ranging from 80-90%.

I will closely monitor the evening for tomorrow and report any changes, if any. I hope that's not the case! Anything's possible!

Regards,

Trav.

Greetings,

I hate to say it, but it appears that I was right about the weather. It looks like the rain and thunderstorms will prevail this evening and through the afternoon and overnight hours. The chances of this are a high 60%. The evening temperature is staying at a balmy 23 degrees, but thundershowers, followed by winds blowing from the east at 15 km/h and humidity levels will be high at 60%.

I wish that the previous forcast had stayed there with that deceiving 20%, but I knew it was too good to be true! Plus, I knew that it would change because the airmass is still unstable during the day and night today and the dynamics are definitely there, I can feel it! This system has a lot of moisture and if mixed in with the other ingredients, it will make it favourable to the development of precipitation in the form of showers and possibly thunderstorms, depending on the volume of energy. And as I said before, the system may be slowing down, but this wasn't substantial. It's going to arrive early, anyways. Also, closer cities, such as Cornwall and Ottawa, were reporting rain in their neck of the woods. So, I actullay knew that it would change.

The good news is, there's a slight chance that it's still possible for it not to rain during the 10-10:30 P.M zone, if we're lucky. Usually when the threat of rain is there, we are sometimes spared during that time! Then, as soon as 10:30 comes, it rains like crazy!

Sorry for the bad news!

I hate this!

Trav.

Smoke, i dunno if u notices, but for the evening, it stats a "trace" of rain

and its so true when u say that "Usually when the threat of rain is there, we are sometimes spared during that time! Then, as soon as 10:30 comes, it rains like crazy!"

how many times does it happens like that! LOL!

my image of the evening is: strong humidity with plenty of clouds, a little bit of rain here and there
overall
we will either be under a strong rain or no rain at all or just a tiny little bit of rain

weather has changed to bad and to good

Bad news: now its less than 5mm rain (which really isnt that a big problem) with 60%

Good news: theyve added a moon on midnight with 60%, the moon signifies that it wont rain constantly (for me)

so if a moon is there, than the chances of rain is low (for me)

60% seems ok for me, its better than 70%

i might just talking stupid, but anyways lol

I have to somewhat disagree with the forcast in terms of how much precipitation is going to fall.

When they say 5mm, it can be more, especially if associated with thunderstorms. Thunderstorms usually produce vast quantities of precip. in such a short period of time than just regular showers, and also depending on the strength of the storm.

I hate the fact that it's still 60% chance. However, we must take into consideration the actual level of probability. I mean that when they 60%, it can mean that there's a 60% chance that in any random place in the forcast area, could get the given values of precip. This is not always the case, though.

Anyways, I agree with you, Enkil. It seems that there's a good chance that we may get heavy rain/thunderstorm or just no rain at all, or maybe just a sprinkle, which shouldn't do much. I also agree that there will be heavy humidity. This could be a problem, though.

The good news is, it hasn't rained at all yet! In fact it's gorgeous out there! Just a lot of cloud, but that usually signals something's probably coming.

Regards,

Trav.

its almost 5:15pm and still no rain!

the system is coming slow or the meteorologists r just wrong

i can even tell u here in Laval, i see sun under a cloudy sky

althro, im concerned about the strong wind, its not a good sign

i have a strong feeling that it wont rain at all (tonight) or a torrential rain is waiting for us

good news: Environment Canada is now reporting 40%

only Weather Network has to change its percentage of 60%