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Weather Cooperation (or not)

 
 
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Author Smoke
Member 
#1 | Posted: 6 Jun 2004 16:11 
Greetings,

I'm sorry about the title. I meant we could expect possible threatening weather for the display on Saturday. Don't be alarmed!

Anyways, I've been keeping my eye on the weather for the last couple of days, and so far the forecast for Saturday, June 12th, it's going to predominantly be overcast with showers and thunderstorms, followed by a 70%chance of precipitation, but it will be quite humid and hot with a high of 28 degrees with relatively calm winds.

I'm not trying to discourage everyone. This is still quite a long period of time until Saturday. There's still a pretty strong chance that the weather could, in fact, change, as it usually does. I'm sure it will change for the best. The good news is that we still don't know the actual forecast for "Saturday evening" just yet. However, if it does rain prior to the display, it can potentially cause some problems during the show.

Now please, don't worry too much about the weather. This is just what it says so far and I'm just informing you.

I will continue to monitor the weather forecast and make updates if they're any changes, whatsoever.

It's pretty ironic that the weather is threatening a Canadian display, once again!

I really hope that it changes!!!!

Trav.

Author Smoke
Member 
#2 | Posted: 7 Jun 2004 14:55 
Hello again,

I just got an update on the forecast for Saturday and it's good news!!! Just as I suspected, it did change for the best.

The forecast is now calling for a 30% probability of precipitation followed by cloudy periods. The temperature now droped to roughly 22-25 degrees. The winds will still be relatively light in nature and the humidity has also droped, so it won't affect the fireworks. The winds, on the other hand, should be strong enough to clear the smoke quickly.

Just forget about what I said before! Ampleman will have a perfect day forecast for their presentation.

However, I don't want to jinx anything, as the forecast has a chance to change again! I will still continue to watch the forecast and notify you guys if they're any changes.

Regards,

Trav.

Author Enkil
Member 
#3 | Posted: 8 Jun 2004 15:03 
unfortunatly i wont be able to attend the show, i have exams next week, a roller coaster ride for me

but things wont get better, i have bunch of families coming from around the world to our house, for vacation, althro its not confirmed

this is bad for me, cuz the car wont be around, it will be difficult

plus the metro Henri-Bourrassa closed, doesnt help

ill see, i will try to attend as much as i can

Author Smoke
Member 
#4 | Posted: 8 Jun 2004 17:25 
Enkil,

Long time no see.

I have to admit, but that really sucks! However, your exams are important. I finished school about a month ago, so it's not a bother, for me.

I really hope you could attend, somehow, but from looking at the type of situation you're in, it doesn't look like it.

Really, it would be more fun if you could show up, because this way we could get your opinion in addition to everyone else here, about the display. This is a very special year, after all.

Anyways, I hope you'll be able to see the majority of them. I really don't want you to miss out!

Regards,

Trav.

Author Smoke
Member 
#5 | Posted: 17 Jun 2004 07:39 
Hello everyone,

I just have an update on the weather for Saturday, June 19th. So far the weather is stable, but with possible scattered showers, followed by a 40% chance of precipitation. The winds will be relatively moderate and coming from the west. The skies should stay faily cloudy with some sunny breaks and the temperature will be comfortable, ranging from anywhere between 22-25 degrees. Temperature could be higher, though, providing there's enough solar energy.

In summary, Spain should be safe. As always, I will continue to monitor further changes and inform you guys if needed.

Trav.

Author Smoke
Member 
#6 | Posted: 30 Jun 2004 13:25 
Italy looks like it's getting a beautiful hot summery day with lots of sun and calm winds followed by a 0% chance of precipitation and a wonderful high of 27-30 degrees celcius! Finally!

I know that for Marutamaya and Igual, it was perfect, but down- right chilly! It looks like an improvement for this coming Saturday!

Regards,

Trav.

Author Smoke
Member 
#7 | Posted: 9 Jul 2004 07:59 
Hello,

Just to inform you that there's a 40% probability of precipitation tomorrow, in the form of thunderstorms. Should be relatively warm, but not like IPON, unfortunaltely. Winds will also be moderate, and dewpoints should be high, which should give way to some heavier humidity, which should help the humidex values in terms of temperature.

Shouldn't be that bad, plus this isn't the evening forcast.

Trav.

Author Enkil
Member 
#8 | Posted: 9 Jul 2004 21:16 
toomorow's night weather forcast is now up: no rain, just clouds, the moon and 20% cha. of rain

i was checking multiple sources, on tv, EC, etc, some r saying 60% (afternoon)

but theres no big clouds coming, and u can see Sunday its sunny, its prolly just a destalized system
the risk is there, but even if it rains, it could rain heavy (at times) but it wont last, for sure!

i know this, since ive learned weather stuff when i was a kid

anyways, i say, just go out there every one and enjoy, i have a feeling this Spain display will be tight!

Smoke, i will look carefully where i stand toomorow, and i will let u know

Author Smoke
Member 
#9 | Posted: 10 Jul 2004 12:37 
Yes, I know quite a bit about the weather myself. I do know that if it does rain heavy, you know right away it can be, most of the time, heavily associated with a thunderstorm because thunderstorms produce heavier rains, and as a result, thunderstorms are often short lived and bingo, rain should end soon, even if there's no thunderstorm. Heavy rain ends rather quickly, but different story for lighter precipitation of this form. However, a heavy rainstorm can flare up again, as long as there's enough moisture, humidity, and of course, solar energy, followed by high dewpoints, creating high humidex values. As long as they're these factors, the risk is there, once again. That's convectional precipitation! This usually happens in chains, although it doesn't look like that's the case today, from what I observe out there! Plus, humidity is not that high! That should prevent the trigger and lift! Whew!

Aside from that, the weather is looking very nasty out there, in my area, in the west island. I don't know about you guys.

Currently, the rain is or was falling very heavy! As I said before, it ended up being short lived, so it's moved out.

Anyways, I've checked in with the weather updates and it looks like this evening is going to be just fine, with comfortable temperatures to back it up and also, relatively stable winds. It wouldn't be like IPON's weather, though. The winds should be good enough to clear up the smoke quickly. This also followed by a 10-20% chance of precip. And yes, I do agree. Most of the weather sources I checked with say the greatest chance of precip. is in the afternoon, 60%, which did happen in the form of heavy rain, which lasted for about 1/2 hour. It was a big soaking, though!

As for where you stand, remember I stand right next to the traffic light on the median at De Lorimier and Notre-Dame intersection. You can see pretty much all the low level effects, too. Just make sure that you stand on a higher slope and angle, so this way, it's to your advantage. The best view is still the steel gate on Notre-Dame, but you'll have to go early.

Enkil's right, don't worry too much about the weather, although this afternoon looked deceiving! Don't let it fool you. Enjoy what Spain has to offer tonight!! Remember......THIS IS SPAIN!!!

BTW, will the earlier rainfall cause problems during the display?

Best Regards,

Trav.

Author Enkil
Member 
#10 | Posted: 10 Jul 2004 16:19 
no Smoke, the rain never causes problems, cuz the fireworks r protected with a bag (those blue bags)

anyways, im going tonight, theres no rain tonight, i check again

Author Smoke
Member 
#11 | Posted: 11 Jul 2004 22:46 
Yeah, I guess you're right, Enkil.

I'm sure that the smoke build up was weather-related, though.

However, the main threat of rain still very much persists for Holland's show!

The forcast is currently saying, and has been for a while, that heavy thunderstorms and overcast skies will prevail for the day. This also followed by an 80% chance of precipitation.Winds will also be moderate at 15-20km/h, coming from the southeast, but there will be heavy humidity, which may very well give the lift needed to activate the storms. This hasn't changed for a while now! Hopefully, that wouldn't be the case!

The good news is that we still don't know the evening forcast, just yet. However, if high levels and percentages of humidity continue to be constant and at high values, this could also affect smoke build up, making it thicker, but providing there's enough wind!

As always, I will make further updates, if anything changes.

Regards,

Trav.

Author UBlink
Member 
#12 | Posted: 12 Jul 2004 09:24 
Keep us informed - I hope the weather doesn't delay air travel - our plane is supposed to get in at 5:30 - I figured that would be plenty of time for the 10;00 show, but now I'm getting nervous.

Author Smoke
Member 
#13 | Posted: 12 Jul 2004 13:55 
It still doesn't look like much has changed. I think it's just going to stay that way.

Still showers and thunderstorms with an 80% chance. However, don't let that dampen your spirit. I wouldn't take out the possibility just yet! Still a chance of changing! Plus, as I said before, we still don't know the evening forcast!

Regards,

Trav.

Author Enkil
Member 
#14 | Posted: 12 Jul 2004 15:17 
i think soon we will need a miricle (toomorow is the last day), it has to change!

i have a good news and a bad news

good news: Environment Canada is reporting 60% with mixed sun and rain for Wednesday

bad news: Thursday, constant rain, that most likely means, Wednesday night the clounds and rain will come and stay constantly

what we could hope is to get a break Wednesday night, like 40% or maybe 60% of rain, in this case it would be ok to go, but if its 80% then theres a problem

i wish i could do something lol

Author UBlink
Member 
#15 | Posted: 12 Jul 2004 20:37 
So if it is storming, from what I've heard the show will go on. Any hints on that (besides appropriate storm gear)? We will go, rain or shine, but might need a recommendation of a good place to go warm up and dry out after the show. We'll be travelling by Metro.

Alan

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