Hey guys,

Well, as most of you already know, we need to pay close attention to the weather this year as there has been quite a bit of rainfall in the past (and for much of the East), which may be because of La Nina. In addition, the weather is the most important factor for the fireworks since it is heavily reliant on it. In any case, the conditions for Saturday seem ideal with highs of 22-24 Celsius (if the sun remains out for a long time) along with a Southwesterly light wind of 10 km/h. As for sky conditions, well, it looks more like cloudy periods for now, but this can always change, as does the temperature regime. I'll give further updates of probability as the days go on.

It's a shame that we haven't been getting much nice weather for much of May and June, though the best of the weather was at the very end of May, but that came to a rapid close and we haven't gotten heat like that since. So far, June is nothing like it was last year.

Regards,

Trav.

but dont worry next saturday its far , i just hope if not rain, that it

Hi Jerome,

Yes, let's hope not, though I suspect it won't, but things always change with our atmosphere, which is why we always need to pay attention to it frequently.

Perhaps a return flow of heat around this weekend.

Trav.

yeah i promise nice day from meteomedia

24c max
15c min
partially cloudy
30 % chance of shower
south-west wind of 10km/h

i alway hope for a hot and beautifull day

You're certainly right, Jerome, except, now they're expecting 25 to possibly 27 C while all other factors remain constant. The Southwest wind is always a key player here since it allows for moist warm air to flood in from the Gulf; I think the warm up will begin mid day Friday. It's too bad we had a mostly rotten June so far, which was the case for most of the country as well.

In other news, I don't think tropical storm Alberto will be bothering us (unlike Arlene last year) since the expected track seems fixed adjacent to the New England states along the coast and perhaps eventually hitting Nova Scotia as it continues its Northeast track, but, like everything else, that can always change. Personally, it's not an impressive storm, especially with the rotation along the center, but you can see the spin of low pressure. Right now, it's expected to hit parts of Northern Florida within an hour or 2 and then haed out over the Atlantic. It's roughly 4 mph away from reaching hurricane status. The surface water temperatures are also remarkably warm for this time of year (28 C).

Just a little update on that since the remnants of these storms can hinder the crew member's hard work for the setups as well as it influencing the actual latter shows, or even during the displays, which is the worst of all. It's a shame that Australia, and especially Sweden, fell victim at the time last year when Arlene and Cindy arrived.

Trav.

Hey guys,

There has been an update with the weather forecast for Saturday as well as some pattern changes as well. I've been paying close attention to the report details from now until Saturday night, but things may be somewhat tricky. Indeed, the forecast is saying that we're going to have excellent weather, but it is quite possible that in the very late afternoon throughout the night time hours, there is the risk of convective ubiquitous thunderstorms, some of which could be severe. However, keep in mind that this is not a tremendous chance. Probabilities will possibly range from 30-40%. (Not to say that it won't happen).

My personal prediction of the forecast remains the same as in the past few days, except with the slight chance of storms in the respective hours, which can be, once again, potent.

We will still get a humid day of 26-28 Celsius (this may fluctuate to higher values) along with a slight increase of wind (15 km/h) still coming from the Southwest along with some cloudy periods. Dewpoints will be high as well.

I'll be sure to monitor the weather very carefully throughout the day Saturday and from now. Should the risk diminish, I'll be sure to let you all know. In the meantime, any other reports are very much appreciated.

Trav.

Guys,

Despite my last forecast and personal prediction, the threat of severe thunderstorms remains intact later in afternoon (providing we get periods of solar energy in between the rains). The problem is now a higher chance of rains and storms. They do cover up the fireworks, right?

Winds are now breezy from the same direction at 25 km/h. Temperatures will still be quite warm at 26-28 Celsius, that is, once again, providing we get the sun. The forecast is now calling for overcast conditions with showers along with periods of rain in the morning. However, chances are that the rains won't be completely all day (meaning they'll be on and off along with the threat of storms).

To play it safe, bring an umbrella tomorrow night, just in case. There's no doubt that tomorrow will be unstable given the humid airmass. Even if the forecast for the evening looks better, I still wouldn't rule out the chance of storms.

In some respect, I'm under some suspicion that the present straight showers scenario with an 80% probablity will rather become a "chance of thunderstorms" or "scattered showers along with a 40% chance. If someone sees contradictory information, please let me know. I'll be keeping my eye out for the weather today as well since the chance of storms exists today, too. I'll also be paying attention to a more detailed synopsis throughout the day as well as some satellite imagery. However, satellites can sometimes be useless for detecting convective storms ahead of time since they develop so rapidly. In any case, this feels like a repeat scenario of what happened to this team in 2000, unfortunately.

Well, it's like I said, our atmosphere is always changing. One day they tell you it will be beautiful, the next it's just foul. In this respect, even simple daily forecasts can prove to be quite the challenge.

*Edit: I just listened in on some details, but it appears that the rains may, or should, subside in the afternoon as the warm front passes through, though the risk of storms are still there. Most of the rains, or showers, will be earlier in the day. Anyhow, I'll see what happens as the day progresses. In any case, I don't think the storms will be as severe anymore due to the fact that they are single-cell air mass "pop-up" storms. If it were a cold front on the way, things could be more severe.

Trav.

Alright, we should be fine tomorrow night along with clear skies and high dewpoints, which will cause a humidex of 31 Celsius. I was also right about the forecast change of the "cloudy with showers". Now it's simply isolated showers along with the risk of thunderstorms (due to instability). Though not guaranteed, there is still a chance that they may establish a risk of storms or showers for the evening, but so far so good. Winds will be breezy at 20-25 km/h from the same direction.

All in all, I think luck is on our side and for this team, too. As usual, I will notify any new updates. Finally, in some contradiction, I want you all to be aware that there could be some severe isolated storms tomorrow since there will be enough instability for cloud tops to do so, so be aware during the day. Not to say that they will happen for sure, but the key word here is "isolated". I will be like a hawk for the next 24 hours.

Trav.

Though the risk is minimal, we should bring our umbrellas, but I'm not going to make you feel compelled. Just remember that some isolated showers and storms are still possible.

Enjoy the show, guys.

Trav.

Hi guys,

It looks like we're going to get a nice day with some cloudy periods and a 30% probability of precipitation. Winds should be enough to clear the smoke at 10km/h from the East. Although there is a chance of rain, these are pretty much very isolated, so I think we'll be ok, that is, until further notice.

In any case, the temperature should be in low to mid 20s in the evening hours, but we're looking at a high of 25-26 Celsius fpr tomorrow. Not too much humidity in the way, so things should be pleasant, though I love the humidity.

Edit: The newest update says 26-27 Celsius and mainly sunny with no chance of rain. I suspect the same for the night time and early evening. In any case, a nice day for Soldi.

Trav.

Hey guys,

I think we may have a "possible" problem for tomorrow since the risk of thunderstorms persist while the winds may be quite strong (40 km/h in the afternoon), but from the Southwest. There will be a return flow of moisture, which will provide a humidex of about 30 C. Actual temperatures will be around 26 C.

Today is much the same, though we may get periods of rain tonight while convectional storms in the afternoon are certainly possible. I've already seen some towering cumulus this morning, which suggests instability.

In any case, I'm still waiting for tomorrow evening's forecast, but even is we chance of storms clear out, we still have to keep an eye on the wind velocity.

I'll provide more details as the day goes on. If anyone sees contradictory forecasts, please don't hesitate to post them here.

Trav.

There is the possiblity of nefarious storms tonight into the morning as a warm front and later cold front associated with a vigorous low (causing a trough in the jet stream), will be moving through, so be sure to have your umbrellas if you're heading for the fireworks tonight.

Tomorrow's weather is unstable during the day, but appears to be stabalizing for the evening hours with temperatures of 22-24 Celsius under clear skies. Winds are not as strong like they are in the afternoon. They should be steady at 25 km/h (or more) in the evening, but I still need to pay attention to this more actively tomorrow. In any case, we should be ok for tomorrow evening, but the chance of storms are still a threat tomorrow.

In any case, I'll be on the lookout tonight and tomorrow and will definitely provide any newer updates. I believe the more active hours will be into tonight into the morning to noon.

Edit: It will also be humid tomorrow with the passage of the warm front, but then later dry out with the secondary cold front. Just be prepared for a windy day tomorrow.

Trav.

I'm just hoping that the winds will die down to the level that they're specifying for this evening (20 km/h from the southwest). Temperatures are now between 21-23 Celsius under mainly clear skies. Just the possibility of sporadic sprinkles out there with the odd thundershower. Most of the action may be established in southern Ontario for today.

Other than the winds, this evening looks fine, but I'm still skeptical about the wind speeds.

Trav.

Trav, I hope me too that wind will be weaker tonight. MeteoMedia actually (at 3pm) indicates that it goes at 37km/h with some 56 km/h gust. This may detract the choregraphy of the Argentinian show...

Fred

Hi Fred,

I sure hope that things also die down some. I'm still recording gusts at 54 km/h from the West. They still say that they should drop off to about 20 km/h from the continuous Westerly direction.

The reason for this is simply because of a steep gradient force, but I have a feeling that they will diminish somewhat based on the movement of the low pressure system. However, the movement often varies from time to time, but many models suggest that the low itself will move off futher East by this evening (I hope I'm right).

This does indeed bring back memories of Kimbolton (England) back in the ending of 2003. Do you know the maximum wind velocity at which the fireworks can safely take place? The only problem here is the stronger gusts.

In any case, I will keep listening to weather updates via radio once I arrive there.

Trav.

Hey Trav,

Based on what I remember from last year, I believe the max is 30-35 km/h. Fred, correct me if I'm wrong. Looking forward to tonights show. However, the music doesn't look very promising. I might be wrong, though.

Dan

Hi Dan,

Thanks for the limitations on wind speeds. It seems reasonable, but tonight's gusts proved to be quite superior.

As for the music choice, it was quite enjoyable, especially in this type of approach, but some of the rhythm variations felt repetitive while the "Don't cry for me Argentina" soundtrack playing more than once was a little weird. Synchronization wasn't all the greatest either.

Trav.

The max wind speed is 40 km/hr, and the bombs are all covered with aluminum foil and plastic sheets, although sometimes water does manage to get in.

Hi guys,

Saturday is looking fabulous with mainly sunny skies, thanks to high pressure, and very warm temperatures. I think there will be humidity and moisture flooding back in since we're going to get a return flow from the Southwest. Temperatures will most likely cross the 30 Celsius barrier as they will for the coming week (for now). Winds shouldn't be a problem like they were for Argentina, but I hope for a slightly stronger wind to clear out the smoke effectivley, especially if there is moisture. This could be the warmest fireworks night.

And thank you, locker, for the wind specifications, but usually with anywhere between a predominant 30-40 km/h wind, I still believe the fireworks would be dangerous to fire since these types of winds are typically accompanied by stronger gusts ranging towards 60 km/h.

Trav.

Weather is simply fantastic with very warm conditions staying at 27-28 Celsius under mainly clear skies. There is also some humidity, which will make it feel like 32-33 Celsius, or possibly more since we're near the city.

My fears of wind speeds (being too slow) have subsided while we have a nice Southwest wind at 15-20 km/h, though the winds were breezy when I was at the parade in downtown a couple of hours ago. Moisture levels are moderate, so it will feel humid.

In summary, we're in for a perfect Summer's evening for this new country. Once again, all courtesy to high pressure. Heck, there's nothing much for me to comment on or to look out for besides the impeccable heat that we'll see today and throughout most of the week!

Enjoy!

Trav.

A little worrisome conditions are being reported by MétéoMedia for tomorrow night. There's a 70% chances of rain precipitation, which is a bit too high.

However, they're also reporting that it might stop by 9pm. Anyways, I'll keep on a eye on this.

Tomorrow night will be humid, but there are possible rains with a 60-70% chance. The reasons are practically to do with a well organized low pressure system coming from the Southwest from Southern and Eastern Ontario whilst travelling along the highway 401 corridor.

The track is understood, but it is showing signs of additionally moving in an extreme Southwest flow, but also with a distinctive Westerly tilt. I, too, have to watch this very carefully since it is rather ubiquitous. The rains may arrive later in the afternoon, especially since they will arrive in Kingston in the morning hours.

In any case, there are several implications at work here. First, it will be humid and there could be sunny breaks, which serves as a catalyst. However, sunny breaks help develop convective clouds, so we need to pay attention to that. Second, the system is quite massive on satellite and has some decent cloud top heights, which suggests embedded thunderstorms and thus copious amounts of rainfall, should they happen. Finally, this system carries a lot of moisture with it and this helps fuel the amounts of rainfall within actual clouds.

However, I believe Montreal and Ottawa will be on the edge of the whole thing, but moreso in the afternoon, so I suspect more of an overcast scenario, but there is still a chance for showers or steadier rains.

On a smaller scale, the winds will be from the East at 10-20 km/h (or higher) while temperatures will be warm and sticky at 24-26 Celsius, but feeling like 30-31 C with the humidex.

Regardless of the changes, I sincerely recommend that you all bring an umbrella. I also wouldn't be surprised if there is a little lightning here and there (kind of like yesterday's late afternoon). The more bad news with this is that it is more likely to have "possible" steadier rains in the evening-overnight hours, so this could actually be a wash-out display...that is, until I get further reports.

I've actually noticed this system since almost a week ago, but I knew it could present problems.

Trav.

If we are going to get rain tonight, it would be the first show under water since the Kimbolton's one in 2003.

Not particularly happy about that...



Fred

I don't think we should really worry that much. It appears to me that it's actually a weak part of the system that will affect us.

I was checking CNN's radar and it does seems to be directed this way, but if we get anything, it will only be light rain with a few beaks.

And according to MétéoMédia's website, the "biggest" rainfall will come between 8pm and 9pm, and after 10pm, things will get better.

We'll definitely be affected by the system, but we should be glad that it's nothing serious (well, hopefully).

The system itself is losing its punch as it moves East Northeast, but I think it is moving in a more Easterly fashion giving us an escape possibility as it moves more over New York and skimming the Eastern Townships of Quebec.

As Enkil said, I don't think it will be much of an event according to my sources and my perception and knowledge of the entire low since we may have more or less an overcast scenario. However, despite the fact that we won't see things as copious as what Southern and Eastern Ontario witnessed, we still nay get some moderate rains. Indeed, I think most of the rains will be in the form of light rain showers while will be possibly making their biggest appearance between 8 to possibly 10 p.m. I wouldn't take out any chances, so please bring your umbrellas with you.

Winds are still constant between 10-20 km/h from the East and South east with a 70% chance of precipitation. I'll have a few more reports as I get more information from TWN.

Trav.

Hi guys,

I'm rather happy to tell you that tomorrow night will be the hottest and most humid night so far with temperatures staying steady at 29-33 Celsius but feeling like the low 40s! Winds will be from the Southwest (obviously) at 10-15 km/h.

However, there is the possibility of heavy thunderstorms throughout the day because of the passage of a weak cold front that will move through as the day progresses. Because the gradient is strong between the hot humid air mass and the cooler air behind the actual front, storms can develop because of stronger enhanced convection.

Nevertheless, with the nature of storms, the idea is stochastic, so it's either you get them or you don't. Tomorrow maybe sort of a gamble, but if we do get thunderstorms firing up in the day, expect copious amounts of rainfall, depending on your location.

I'll keep an eye on the frontal movement, but it's important to look at radar and satellite imagery for either the actual cloud tops or the intensity of the embedded cells following the front.

I'll keep you all posted as often as I can, but you may hear grumbles of thunder throughout the day, even in the morning. Only right for the Canadian show! I believe this firm had some tough luck with the weather in 1998.

Trav.

Hi guys,

We should be alright for tomorrow evening (20% chance of anything), but I wouldn't rule out the chance of storms completely. I'm going to play it safe and bring an umbrella. However, regardless, it will be hot and sticky with temperatures staying between 28-30 Celsius, even at that hour. It may feel even warmer because we're in an urban area. The dewpoints will be high, so it will feel like 36 Celsius+ (my kind of weather). Winds will be light at 10-15 km/h, so hopefully the smoke will move away quickly.

Other than that, we should be alright, but pay special attention to cloud formations tomorrow; it will be wonderful to watch those clouds swell up! Should they happen, some storms could be potent, so beware.

Trav.

Well, as I thought, the risk of storms still remains for this evening with a 40% chance. All of this still has to do with that cold front, but the humidex values and temperature and wind speeds/directions are still constant.

Just remember that this a chance, not a guarantee. And just because it's 40%, doesn't mean it won't happen, so be sure to bring your umbrellas and to listen for updates prior to the show, that is, if you can. Storms are very well possible throughout the day as well. A storm synopsis suggests that we could see some stronger storms, too.

Oh yes, this cold front will not break away the stagnant humidity since it isn't a strong one.

So, enjoy the heat!!!

Trav.

Well guys, a perfect summer's evening for this display with temperatures staying at 25-27 Celsius with a little humidity. In all, a comfortable evening with light winds from the Southeast and clear skies.

Not too much for me to comment on for today.

Trav.

Guys,

We may have a problem for tomorrow evening since an area of low pressure is slowly advancing this way bring rains (90%) and possible embedded thunderstorms for tomorrow evening. Rains could be quite copious, too. Winds will be from the Northwest at 10-15 km/h while moisture levels will be moderate.

There could be some standard deviation, so I'll keep you all posted as the system approaches. Who knows, perhaps we'll be spared at 10:00-10:30 p.m.

Trav.