Weather Cooperation (or not) for Summer 2011.

Newest model simulations are still mostly adhering to what was specified above. As such, here is what to generally expect for Saturday, July 30th.

Temperature/Humidity

Temperatures will likely reach a maximum of 28-29 C during the mid-afternoon hours, and dropping off to 23-25 C in the metropolitan area by the late-evening. With the forecasted storms that came through (in association with a cold front) just recently tonight, humidity levels are on their way down and should drop to borderline low-moderate values for today, including the evening hours.

Precipitation

Again, precipitation is not expected by the evening hours. However, because of a secondary cold front from another low to the North, there is a chance (30%) for some scattered showers early in the morning towards lunch time, and perhaps stretching into the very early afternoon. Things should progressively clear as the day progresses, but there will still be some isolated clusters of cumulus clouds lingering, including the evening.

Wind

Models are still maintaining breezy NNW to NW winds for the day. Winds are first from the NNW during the morning hours at 16-19 km/h. By afternoon, sustained speeds increase slightly to 19-23 km/h (occasionaly gusts at 32-33 km/h) while from the same direction. NW winds present themselves by late-afternoon into the evening hours, and the speeds quickly diminish by evening to 12-15 km/h, and progressively to 8-11 km/h by late-evening. However, NW winds seem to still be shifting to WNW tendencies by late-evening, which would be pushing smoke towards the left end of the seating area, in particular, if present As such, I would like to verify the newer runs and weather progs to see if there would be any changes.

That's the way the weather should generally behave. To summarize, very warm temperatures, with mostly sunny conditions, especially beyond the morning hours. Scattered showers are possible across southern Quebec during mostly the morning hours due to a passing secondary cold frontal wave. Humidity levels are borderline low-moderate. Winds are breezy for most of the day but quickly die down by the evening, and they change from NNW to NW tendencies by evening, with the potential for WNW patterns by late-evening. In general, it is shaping up to be a pleasant day for our highly anticipated closing show. The UV, however, is high, so be sure to protect yourselves accordingly, if you plan to be outdoors for extended periods during the day, especially for the afternoon.

*I will post an additional update with respect to wind direction once I revise the newer model outputs. I will post an update regardless if there aren't any changes.

Also, a photo that I had wanted to share of a positive lightning discharge that I captured on the early evening of July 21st:

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG4327.jpg

Trav.

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Weather Cooperation (or not) for Summer 2011.

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	Smoke Member	#31 \| Posted: 30 Jul 2011 03:01
		Newest model simulations are still mostly adhering to what was specified above. As such, here is what to generally expect for Saturday, July 30th. Temperature/Humidity Temperatures will likely reach a maximum of 28-29 C during the mid-afternoon hours, and dropping off to 23-25 C in the metropolitan area by the late-evening. With the forecasted storms that came through (in association with a cold front) just recently tonight, humidity levels are on their way down and should drop to borderline low-moderate values for today, including the evening hours. Precipitation Again, precipitation is not expected by the evening hours. However, because of a secondary cold front from another low to the North, there is a chance (30%) for some scattered showers early in the morning towards lunch time, and perhaps stretching into the very early afternoon. Things should progressively clear as the day progresses, but there will still be some isolated clusters of cumulus clouds lingering, including the evening. Wind Models are still maintaining breezy NNW to NW winds for the day. Winds are first from the NNW during the morning hours at 16-19 km/h. By afternoon, sustained speeds increase slightly to 19-23 km/h (occasionaly gusts at 32-33 km/h) while from the same direction. NW winds present themselves by late-afternoon into the evening hours, and the speeds quickly diminish by evening to 12-15 km/h, and progressively to 8-11 km/h by late-evening. However, NW winds seem to still be shifting to WNW tendencies by late-evening, which would be pushing smoke towards the left end of the seating area, in particular, if present As such, I would like to verify the newer runs and weather progs to see if there would be any changes. That's the way the weather should generally behave. To summarize, very warm temperatures, with mostly sunny conditions, especially beyond the morning hours. Scattered showers are possible across southern Quebec during mostly the morning hours due to a passing secondary cold frontal wave. Humidity levels are borderline low-moderate. Winds are breezy for most of the day but quickly die down by the evening, and they change from NNW to NW tendencies by evening, with the potential for WNW patterns by late-evening. In general, it is shaping up to be a pleasant day for our highly anticipated closing show. The UV, however, is high, so be sure to protect yourselves accordingly, if you plan to be outdoors for extended periods during the day, especially for the afternoon. *I will post an additional update with respect to wind direction once I revise the newer model outputs. I will post an update regardless if there aren't any changes. Also, a photo that I had wanted to share of a positive lightning discharge that I captured on the early evening of July 21st: http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG4327.jpg Trav.

	Smoke Member	#32 \| Posted: 30 Jul 2011 17:37
		Just an update about the winds. The models remain unchanged in their simulations with respect to speed and direction. As such, the light (7-11 km/h) WNW winds would be pushing the smoke gently towards left sections of the audience at La Ronde and potentially, at times, towards those at the center (I believe that the center is referred to as the silver section - correct me if I am wrong), if westerlies occasionally take place. If NW winds are present in between, then the smoke would be pushing towards the extreme left of the audience. This should give an idea as to the tendencies for this evening in terms of wind direction, but the general direction is WNW, so, if possible, please avoid the left sections of the seating area. For everything else, please refer to my posting above. And so concludes the weather reports for the 2011 fireworks competition in Montreal. If anything, forecasting the wind was the challenge for many of this year's entrants! I leave you with nice storm video - a little bit of nature's fireworks at a distance near Montreal (best viewed at night!) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y5yvZsCpIHI Trav.