Greetings,

GREAT NEWS!!!! The weather will be cooperating! I just received the latest update and everything has changed for the best.

The new and improved weather forcast is calling for mainly sunny skies with a 0% chance of precipitation. The winds remain the same at 15km/h, so that's good.

Now, I agree with Enkil. I say this because I do know that a strong upper level low is approaching from Ontario in a southwest and west fashion. This is also going to be associated with a weak cold front which will act as a trigger to activate the showers/thunderstorms. From what I see in this system, it's got a lot of moisture and lift with it, so this will give way to thunderstorms on Thursday. However, this being said, I have a feeling that this system may push in to the southern Quebec region during the late P.M hours of Wednesday. I've checked several weather maps of the trend of this system and it appears that at the velocity this system is travelling, it could arrive at that time. So, in essence, we could still be spared. The rain may hold off until overnight.

I've also got some other reasoning for this. I've taken a glimpse at Ottawa's forcast for tomorrow and they're reporting a 70-80% chance of thunderstorms, all day. This is the same scenario for other adjacent cities. That's why I wouldn't take out the chance. Plus the speed that it's moving at!

Don't get me wrong. We still don't know tomorrow's evening forcast. The day is looking sunny with a warm 25-28 degrees Celcius. The only thing I'm concerned about is the evening hours, which I will monitor closely. I have a feeling that the most we could expect during the evening is a 30-40%.

Alan, just to play it safe, bring an umbrella with you and try to find a place to get shelter, in case of anything. I could be wrong. Maybe we'll just experience more clouds in the evening. It depends.

I guess we can't complain. The weather has significantly changed. I also have this gut instinct that Holland might be spared, despite what I've said!

Anyways, I'll still inform you all if anything changes. Anything is possible!

Regards,

Trav.

Well, just got another update.

Now it says a 40% chance of thundershowers in the afternoon. Everything else is still the same. I guess the system is coming faster than I thought. I fear the same for the evening hours.

Everyone, just bring an umbrella and jacket, in case of anything. At least the chances are lower than what it said for the past few days! It's 80%/2!

Alan, make sure that you bring the proper gear tomorrow. The chance may greater in the evening. Sigh... We can only hope for the best for the evening.


Sorry about boosting your spirits.....and my own.


Trav.

well, we will very soon get Wednesday's evening forcast (im scared! lol)

heres my last perdication

Environment Canada says "Becoming cloudy in the afternoon followed by showers. Risk of a thunderstorm" for Wednesday

so in the afternoon the clouds will enter, now, u cant quickly expect rain to come depending if the system is strong

now, it will really depends how strong this system is, once it comes in

were lucky that the system isnt entering sooner than predicted

this is very interessing, we still have hope, we must MUST get a 40% or 60% for the evening (fingers crossed)

Are there any other reasons for cacelling besides excessive winds? I have a 300+ mile trip to make to get to La Ronde Wednesday, and I'd rather not make it if it gets cancelled because of some rain. Should I go or not?

George

Enkil,

I know what you mean. I still agree with you. The system is looking like it's moving at a steady pace. As I said before, it's a strong upper level low with a lot of moisture in the atmosphere with it, so therefore, it will provide some descent rains and possibly ignite some strong thunderstorms in sounthern Quebec and southern Ontario. The system is also associated with a weak cold front, which plays a role in triggering possible thunderstorms in the afternoon tomorrow. The system itself won't arrive here until the later hours of the day, meaning overnight and possibly the evening. That's my prediction. The chances may become greater as the day goes on, especially as night time approaches. The thunderstorms during the day are just the first parts of this system and are strenghtening because of daytime heating and humidity.

The reasons behind the thunderstorms are because of the of the humid airmass that we're in today and the latter part of tomorrow. The humid airmass will coincide with the cooler air along the cold front and trigger the storms. This is usually the case with the storms. All you need is the solar energy, moisture and humidity and you've got them poppping all over the place. This is a similar case for tomorrow's weather. Another main problem is if it rains during the day and the sun comes out, it can lead to a series of "chain storms" or, if you prefer, convectional precipitation. that's another problem. i've seen storm clouds grow rapidly with the energy from the sun.

Anyways, so yes, it is a relatively significant system on the way coming from the southwest and west from Ontario. For sure, the signs of it coming are usually associated with increased cloud cover, so there's an indicator. Hopefully that's the case and as you say, hopefully the chances will remain at least at 40%. The speed and time it takes to get here totally depends on its velocity and volume. This one is strong and is moving at a descent pace. This is why I predict a stronger chance of rain during the evening hours, although it may not happen, I hope!

The system is quite big. And you can see that the next couple of days are warm, but wet/thundery.

And George, I would tell you to come! The winds aren't a big issue tomorrow. The heaviest of rain shouldn't arrive so early. So, it's safe for you to come. Don't worry about it. It's not like there's severe weather enough to cancel flights in and out of Montreal!

I'm also keeping my fingers crossed. I'll post an update of the weather for the evening for Wednesday, as soon as I get it.

Regards,

Trav.

MORE GOOD NEWS!!!!

The weather (for now) is really cooperating tomorrow evening! The forcast is calling for variable cloudiness with a comfortable low of 22 degrees! Plus, the chance of rain is 20%! Great for Holland!

However, for some reason, I still don't trust this forcast. I've observed Ottawa's evening forcast and they're having straight rain and thunderstorms with a 90% chance.

It's still possible to change, that's all I'm saying.

Anyways, you may think I'm a let down, but we have to consider the possibilty. I will monitor it closely.

I hope that the forcast I'm seing before me right now is what stays for the next 24 hours!

Regards,

Trav.

OMG!

the evening: 20% chances!!!!! no rain!!

i hope it stays that way! no surprise plz! lol

we must look at this carefully! its a miricles! damn we got the luck is with us!

Well...for what it is worth, I just checked the QPF charts at the NOAA Hydrometeorological Prediction center, and as of now, Western Quebec shouldn't get much more than a sprinkle or a light shower through the 10PM timeframe. Their charts dont show measurable precip until between 10 and midnight. Hopefully the system will keep slowing down, as it appears to be doing. This does not, however, rule out a stray thunderstorm, but at least that could be waited out if necessary, the bulk of the constant stuff could hold off until afterwards.

I'm not a meteorologist though, so no lynching if it actually does rain.

George

So far, so good.

The evening is looking relatively calm with winds exceeding no more than in the 15-20 km/h range. Temperature wise, it should stay at 22 degrees.

Now, I've checked several weather maps from different sources, and so far the strong upper level low system is still moving in the same direction, but with less velocity. However, this is not substantial.

Also, I wouldn't take out the possibility of rain during the evening hours, just yet, although it says 20% chance. I say this because the dynamics are still in the atmosphere tomorrow evening from daytime heating and humidity, which, in fact still makes the airmass quite unstable, giving way to precipitation in the form of rain and/or thunderstorms. Plus, this system carries a lot of moisture and is associated with a weak cold front, acting as a trigger once mixed witht the more humid air. Don't take my word for it! I'm just saying that it's still a possibility!

As for the speed of the system, you're right. It is showing some signs of slowing, which could be responsible for the 20% chance tomorrow evening, thus making it arrive later at night, but this decrease in speed is not that substantial. So, in essence, there's a good chance of being spared.

As I said before, though, I've also checked with some evening forcasts with adjacent cities, like Ottawa or even closer, Cornwall. Both are seing rain and thudershowers in the evening with high chances ranging from 80-90%.

I will closely monitor the evening for tomorrow and report any changes, if any. I hope that's not the case! Anything's possible!

Regards,

Trav.

Greetings,

I hate to say it, but it appears that I was right about the weather. It looks like the rain and thunderstorms will prevail this evening and through the afternoon and overnight hours. The chances of this are a high 60%. The evening temperature is staying at a balmy 23 degrees, but thundershowers, followed by winds blowing from the east at 15 km/h and humidity levels will be high at 60%.

I wish that the previous forcast had stayed there with that deceiving 20%, but I knew it was too good to be true! Plus, I knew that it would change because the airmass is still unstable during the day and night today and the dynamics are definitely there, I can feel it! This system has a lot of moisture and if mixed in with the other ingredients, it will make it favourable to the development of precipitation in the form of showers and possibly thunderstorms, depending on the volume of energy. And as I said before, the system may be slowing down, but this wasn't substantial. It's going to arrive early, anyways. Also, closer cities, such as Cornwall and Ottawa, were reporting rain in their neck of the woods. So, I actullay knew that it would change.

The good news is, there's a slight chance that it's still possible for it not to rain during the 10-10:30 P.M zone, if we're lucky. Usually when the threat of rain is there, we are sometimes spared during that time! Then, as soon as 10:30 comes, it rains like crazy!

Sorry for the bad news!

I hate this!

Trav.

Smoke, i dunno if u notices, but for the evening, it stats a "trace" of rain

and its so true when u say that "Usually when the threat of rain is there, we are sometimes spared during that time! Then, as soon as 10:30 comes, it rains like crazy!"

how many times does it happens like that! LOL!

my image of the evening is: strong humidity with plenty of clouds, a little bit of rain here and there
overall
we will either be under a strong rain or no rain at all or just a tiny little bit of rain

weather has changed to bad and to good

Bad news: now its less than 5mm rain (which really isnt that a big problem) with 60%

Good news: theyve added a moon on midnight with 60%, the moon signifies that it wont rain constantly (for me)

so if a moon is there, than the chances of rain is low (for me)

60% seems ok for me, its better than 70%

i might just talking stupid, but anyways lol

I have to somewhat disagree with the forcast in terms of how much precipitation is going to fall.

When they say 5mm, it can be more, especially if associated with thunderstorms. Thunderstorms usually produce vast quantities of precip. in such a short period of time than just regular showers, and also depending on the strength of the storm.

I hate the fact that it's still 60% chance. However, we must take into consideration the actual level of probability. I mean that when they 60%, it can mean that there's a 60% chance that in any random place in the forcast area, could get the given values of precip. This is not always the case, though.

Anyways, I agree with you, Enkil. It seems that there's a good chance that we may get heavy rain/thunderstorm or just no rain at all, or maybe just a sprinkle, which shouldn't do much. I also agree that there will be heavy humidity. This could be a problem, though.

The good news is, it hasn't rained at all yet! In fact it's gorgeous out there! Just a lot of cloud, but that usually signals something's probably coming.

Regards,

Trav.

its almost 5:15pm and still no rain!

the system is coming slow or the meteorologists r just wrong

i can even tell u here in Laval, i see sun under a cloudy sky

althro, im concerned about the strong wind, its not a good sign

i have a strong feeling that it wont rain at all (tonight) or a torrential rain is waiting for us

good news: Environment Canada is now reporting 40%

only Weather Network has to change its percentage of 60%