Greetings,

First, let me say that I’m pleased to have recently become an official severe weather watcher volunteer member for Environment Canada. My job is simply to report any active (namely severe) weather on days where the potential exists for ominous conditions to develop. More specifically, it is important for me to look out for signs of severe weather well in advance of the main storm itself, should it occur, and report them using precise meteorological observations and data collection based on moisture, temperature and wind patterns, among other parameters. In short, I’m basically the eyes and ears for EC in my region, and since I already normally do some storm chasing in late-Spring to Summer, this task will be rather fun. I suppose my reports provided here on the forum will occasionally be supplemented by some of these observations in the event of a severe thunderstorm watch and/or warning occurring in conjunction on the days of fireworks displays, just so to make things a little more tenacious and accurate when making my assessment.

In any case, welcome to yet another Summer season, where it’s possible to witness periodic heat waves, thunderstorms of all types, long periods of fair/cool weather or just boring persistent low pressure systems. Interestingly, the moderate-strong La Nina that was present during this past Winter and Fall has weakened considerably since mid-March, as shown by the extensive warming recovery of the sea-surface temperatures off of particularly the NW coastal region of Peru. My prediction was for a generally prolonged delay in Summer-like temperatures, and this has, so far, been clearly the case with their absence throughout virtually all of May and so far for the first few days of June. I’m expecting the more warm-hot temperature threshold to slowly be attained as we get closer to mid-June (as what we will shortly be witnessing this coming weekend) and onwards, so I don’t think we’ll have to be anymore patient. Regarding storms, there is a fair chance that we could see some particularly vicious thunderstorms this season following mid-June (we’ve already seen one 3 days ago), and I am generally expecting a moderately active t-storm frequency up till September in Southern Quebec and Ontario due to the jet stream’s average configuration associated with a weak La Nina. La Nina itself is expected to continue to weaken and gradually reach a neutral state during the heart of Summer, suggesting the upcoming months to be near normal, or just slightly above normal in average temperature. This also means that precipitation will follow a below to near normal trend, which is again consistent with what has been going on during the month of May. Hurricane season is also expected to be an above average one.

Anyhow, I’m sincerely hoping that none of the 10 displays will be influenced by the risk of storms, heavy moisture (unless winds are at a favorable speed to take care of smoke accumulations), unfavorable wind direction, and persistent strong winds, although there tends to be at least one participant per year (with the exception of 2005) that fall victim to either of these situations. Even if the probability of precipitation is at a greater percentage rate, or if winds are expected to be strong on some presentation nights, perhaps our usual 10:00-10:30 p.m. “weather-proof barrier” will kick in until the show is over.

You’re all more than welcome to report weather conditions some time before the day of presentation of each display. However, I advise not to provide updates no more than 2-3 days preceding the performance date as things become increasingly uncertain prior to that time frame in the models. Be sure to sometimes pay attention to dewpoint (moisture) and wind speed/direction, in addition to temperature and the risk of precip.

And just out of interest, I'll be sure to share a picture of that funnel cloud extending from that supercell (severe t-storm) I spoke of from 3 days ago in the afternoon. The storm produced pea to marble sized hail with radically heavy rain and brief strong gusts of wind in excess of 90 km/h. The picture was taken from Southwestern Pierrefonds, which is in the West Island.

Now then, let the weather watch of Summer 2008 commence. I've got a feeling it's going to be an interesting year weather wise.

Trav.

I apologize for the delay of providing the photo of that funnel cloud that I had seen back on June 2nd. I just got my internet running again after some time moving into my new residence. Anyhow, here it is:

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/DSC00839.jpg

*And here's a couple of photos of the mighty supercell that roared through a couple days ago:

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/DSC00875.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/DSC00874.jpg

Notice the stacked layered shelf cloud there - this is indicative of powerful updrafts, windshear and the possibility of a tornado touching down.

This storm produced hail as large as baseballs, flash flooding rains, frequent lightning, periodic wind gusts in excess of 110 km/h and an unconfirmed report of a tornado. We had it pretty strong in the West Island, but just not as powerful as what was seen in the South shore. I personally don't think the t-storm gave birth to a twister because based on what I saw to the Southeast, the winds were downbursting in a straight line as they pushed up the debris ahead of the rain core, so it is to my belief that this was indeed a microburst. Also, I didn't spot many sightings of distinctive lowering, nor of a wall cloud formation to suggest a persistent mesocyclone, although it's definitely possible that some may have developed later on as the storm tracked NE. In any case, large trees were snapped and there were many reports of property damage as a result of powerful winds. Large 50 foot trailer trucks were overturned on the Champlain bridge, too - some nearly falling into the river. Severe weather was also reported near the U.S border.

It seems that June is closely following the predictions I stated earlier, though the vicious thunderstorm appearances have started a little earlier than expected. Temperatures are following the expected trend as well, so far.

I'm sure there's still a few strong storms yet to come, as I had previously mentioned in my last post, so stay loose.

Trav.

Only FIVE DAYS before the launch of the 2008 competition! Of course, some displays are more anticipated than others, especially when a winning contestant is back. However, the opening one is always special for me, the first to be enjoyed after several months of deprivation.

Unfortunately, it appears that the cost for a contestant to start the competition is high: from 1992 to 2007, only one opening display (6%) has been awarded by a Jupiter, in opposition to 10 "closing" display (63%). This is what social scientists call a statistically significant difference.

About the weather, I just love the MétéoMédia forecast available this morning for next Saturday: sun with some clouds, 30%, 25 degrees. I cross my fingers that forecast will remain the same!

Fred

Hi Fred,

I, too, cross my fingers in hopes that the weather will remain fixed the way it currently is. Once that cold front comes through today (the 16th), a cool airmass will follow behind it and persist for the remainder of the week, as well as being unsettled. In the meantime we're under the risk of some pretty hefty t-storms for the next 12 hours. I am, however, expecting a returning South-Southwesterly flow by ending Friday and onwards with returning humidity, but at the same time this may run the slight risk of on and off thunderstorms on Saturday in both Ontario and Quebec as the warm moist sector of air advances into the region. We'll keep an eye on it, though, since the speed of this coming system is everything.

And yes, Fred, I, and everyone here I'm sure, am always in high anticipation when the competition is set to begin, as well as hearing that first boom. 10 months is much too long of a wait - virtually a year's time.

Trav.

Good day,

As I mentioned earlier, the weather forecasted for Saturday (the 21st) is a little tricky, but being consistent with my last post a few days ago, the risk of on and off rain showers still exists, as well as the isolated chance of non-severe thunderstorms.

What has been happening for the last little while and what will be occurring for the next few days is that the jet stream has produced a persistent "cut-off" low pressure system that has constantly been spawning low after low and subsequently creating trough waves one after the other, creating continuous instability, and hence the dreary weather - the clouds have been generally dark, low, dense and boring-like for the last while. This redundant pattern persists because the system is also being blocked off by high pressure to the Northeast, so it's almost as if this area of low pressure has been going nowhere - on the precipitation weather maps, it looks like a real mess in the East because lows are constantly replacing old ones in the same area.

Fortunately, for the most part, this will be widely isolated and hit and miss rain showers scattered all about on Saturday. Sunny breaks are certainly possible, but cloud will usually tend to interfere. Temperatures sharply rebound, though, compared to what they are presently and what they were for the last couple of days. However, with the sun out at times this weekend along with the warm moist Southerly flow returning, it will help provide enhanced instability needed for rain and even t-storms to develop ubiquitously. This is the kind of pattern we're dealing with, and it will persist throughout virtually all of Eastern Canada over the next 72 hours before it breaks. The only thing that's different is the warmer temperatures on the way.

My main concern is again later in the day on Saturday as the new system moves in this direction, so I'd like to still keep an eye on that. Either way, things will still be unsettled, but perhaps we'll get some breaks during the evening hours, or at least during 10-10:30 p.m, especially since we're dealing with isolated showers and storms. If anything is expected to occur during these hours, then I would estimate a 40-60% probability.

I'll provide more updates as we get closer to the day, but you get the idea of what the atmosphere is and will be like.

EDIT: Btw, tomorrow is the first official day of Summer. It arrives at 7:59 EDT.

Trav.

Good morning,

First, let me just wish everyone a happy first day of Summer. I noticed I forgot to add in the official time of its arrival in my edit, but it arrived at 7:59 p.m. EDT yesterday (the 20th of June). So, I welcome you all to the first full day of Summer, which entirely means that today has the longest daylight period of the year.

Regarding the weather, everything what I had mentioned previously in my last post still stands firmly. Again, the day today will be predominantly fair since the showers and thunderstorms are widely isolated from now up till the overnight hours.

From now until the early part of the evening, we run the risk of light to moderate thunderstorms, but the reason as to why they are not forecasted in the evening, in general, is because we're losing daytime heating, so if anything does occur, it will be likely in the form of rain showers. Seeing that the sun has been out for some time, it will help develop those showers and storm sporadically. However, the more severe weather is expected and more confined in Southern Ontario due to lake breeze convergence.

The good news is that we will be getting some breaks this evening before the next system arrives from the SW. Further to the West and Southwest, there is a much greater risk of thunderstorms and showers this evening as the new low tracks East-Northeast, which is why I wanted to watch the evening forecast for Montreal. These showers and possibly light t-storms will near us during the overnight hours.

In any case, when there's the risk of thunderstorms or isolated showers, most of the day tends to be pleasant, but just know that they're out there. This evening should be alright with a nice temperature of 19-21 C along with a few cloudy periods and variable cloudiness - isolated showers are again still possible in the early evening, though, especially seeing that there's the risk in Ottawa and Cornwall. I'm expecting the thunderstorm risk to end towards the ending afternoon. Also note that it will feel more humid, thanks to the returning SW flow bringing in more moisture from the Gulf, and the winds should stay steady from the SW at 10-15 km/h. As I told Enkil, I'm confident that we'll surpass the daytime high of 22-23 C, mainly because of the warm and stronger Southwesterly flow. It's already just that out there currently.

You can always equipt yourselves with a small umbrella, if you've need of it, but we should be alright by the time 10 p.m rolls around.

Trav.

Thanks so much for the info Trav.

I'm sure we will do our collective best to fight off any rain once again this season!

Hello,

Just briefly, but I had wanted to state that there's the risk for isolated showers and thunderstorms for this coming Saturday as a merged low moves slowly from the West and Southwest - there's a fair circulation of moisture also coming in from the Gulf for the next little while. As the system pushes in this direction, it will generate instability throughout the day, but particularly later in it, so I'm finding myself waiting for the late afternoon-evening forecast yet again for this coming Saturday. If anything, I'm not really anticipating all day rains, just on and off showers and, as always, the possibility of thunderstorms due to daytime convection. On the other hand, it's still a tough call in some sense, too, since the jet stream is showing signs of slowing or altering the course of this complex system in the models.

In any case, regarding t-storms, at this point in time, I don't think they are expected to reach severe limits, but I'll know more on that as we get closer to the day.

Given the layout, however, most of the day should be pleasant when the risk of showers and storms are present.

Trav.

Good morning,

Being consistent with my last post about a couple days ago, this merged low pressure system is well on the way from Western and Southwestern Ontario. However, the low has become much better organized just recently and the jet stream is not doing so much in altering its course, mainly because of it being so enlarged after combining. In any case, as mentioned before, these will be predominantly widespread rain showers and thunderstorms for most of the day Saturday, but as we approach late day into the evening-overnight hours, we could see periods of rain and a better chance for thunderstorms as the associated cold front nears.

The only thing that sways away from my last post is that while the thunderstorms are mostly non-severe in nature, there is a good possibility that some among them could attain severe criteria as the cold front approaches later in the day, so we'll have keep an eye on that. Thunderstorm risk will persist in the evening-overnight regardless of the loss of daytime heating, merely because the cold front will continuously provide the instability needed.

The forecast itself is calling for a "soupy" airmass, where there will be quite a bit of humidity tomorrow, much like today and yesterday, and hence the risk of severe thunderstorms with the passage of the front. Most of the showers and storms will begin to develop in the afternoon with daytime heating convection. The majority of these are commonly associated with a 40-60% probability since they are relatively ubiquitous in nature.

The evening is where it gets tricky. During the evening, I'm anticipating anything from a 40% P.O.P to as much as a 70% since increasing cloudiness will develop by then and in the afternoon. Again, showers and storms are possible. I assure you that temperatures will be very warm, ranging from the mid to high 20s depending on how much sun we get heating the ground. Winds will be coming out from the SW and at times the SE before the front comes through. The speeds should be adequate to get rid of smoke accumulations - remember that there will be a lot of moisture, so we need favorable windspeeds.

Again, note that most of the day tomorrow will be fair with variable cloudiness with the chance of showers and storms. Also note that once the cold front comes through, it will do little to take away the humidity, and hence the continued warm temperatures following tomorrow. This trend looks to be continuing up till Canada Day, although, as is normal for that festive day, the risk of t-storms exists. Today (the 27th), the risk for storms is there as well, though this is the result of pure daytime heating.

Anyhow, I'll provide a final update sometime tomorrow morning, but this is the way the weather will likely work over the next 48-72 hours - there's a lot of available convective energy for storms to develop in this period. Of course, I very much recommend having your umbrellas at your disposal moreso than last week Saturday. As TRae said earlier, we'll do our best to fight off any rain threats this season!

EDIT: Just realized that I crossed over 2000 posts! Yahoo!

Trav.

Trav,

any chance you could do me a personalized forecast for Sunday 29th for Knowlton/Lac Brome? I'm putting on the Canada Day fireworks at 9:30pm in Lions Park - it will be a pyrodigital show for anyone that's interested in coming to see a show scripted by me

Paul

Paul,

The weather pattern for the Eastern Townships, including the area for where you're firing your display, is quite identical to that of Montreal and most of Quebec this weekend. As the low pressure system tracks into Quebec tomorrow, we will get the chance of showers and thunderstorms, some storms of which could be severe. There have been some pretty nasty storms near the Sherbrooke area over the course of the last week to two weeks.

With respect to Lac Brome on Sunday, most of the diurnal part of the day will be at times soggy and sticky with persistent rainfall and the risk of thunderstorms. Breaks of sunshine are also very possible, but this will tend to be interfered by clouds. Temperatures, however, will remain warm (mid to high 20s depending on how much solar heating reaches the surface) and it will be, like Montreal, humid there for the entire day, much like the way it has been for the last 48 hours. As the system continues to track towards the East-Northeast, there will be some lingering showers wrapped around on the back end of the low - these showers and storms are scattered all about during the evening hours, but there will increasingly be breaks in the clouds by this period in time before everything exits completely by the overnight.

Seeing the layout in the models, there's a better chance that you'll encounter breaks in the on and off rain showers during the evening compared to earlier in the day itself. Moisture levels are high, but winds will be light to moderate continued from the South-Southwest (could be a shift in direction in the early evening, though). Either way, you'll need your umbrella, just to be safe - hit and miss showers and storms are often hard to predict. If you require a latter forecast, let me know, but what I provided here is meant to give you a wide scope of the weather trend for Sunday in that region.

Anyhow, I think the majority of people living in Ontario and Quebec will be making good use of their umbrellas this weekend. Thankfully, it will be very warm, hazy and humid.

As for the display, it sounds really interesting, Paul. How long is it expected to last?

In the meantime, here in Montreal, tomorrow evening is a bit scary for Italy's show with that front closing in. Overall, tomorrow in its entirety is definitely a day to keep an eye on the sky - could even hear a crack of thunder when you wake up in the morning.

Trav.

Hey guys,

Nothing too much for me to report as everything I regurgitated in my posts over the last three days still stands firm. You'll notice the first bands of precipitation from the warm front moving in quickly from the Southwest bringing some steady rainfall along with some embedded thunder for the next few hours. Behind this cluster is what we call a "dry slot", so the sun may often make some brief appearances later this afternoon. However, this will energize the rising air currents as air molecules begin to collide frantically in response to solar heating.

Severe weather is still possible, but I'm expecting widespread watches and warnings to surface later this afternoon in Ontario and Quebec, especially if the sun gets the chance to shine.

To recap, a fair risk of showers and thunderstorms (possibly some reaching severe limits in the afternoon-evening hours). Temperatures will be warm, ranging from the mid to high 20's, especially if we get appearances of the sun, even if briefly. Dewpoints are high since moisture levels are soaring, but we should have light to moderate Southerly winds at 15-20 km/h - these winds can sometimes shift to the East. Finally, just to note, but when you read the probability of precipitation, such as 60-70%, this means that in any random area in the forecasted region, there's a 60-70% probability that there will be precipitation.

To close, let's just hope that we'll be alright by the time 10:00 p.m arrives, but the storms and rains will be out there all night tonight - it's just a matter of seeing them or not at that time. I'll keep a close eye on the various radar systems I typically use from now until I depart for the fireworks.

Trav.

Paul,

I noticed that there were some light rain showers and surrounding storms near the Sherbrooke area as the cold front went through around 9:00 p.m. Did the rain interfere with the display?

Trav.

We were incredibly lucky - there was about 1 minute of light raindrops around 6:30pm and then, despite lightning on the horizon and threats of strong winds, we started the display at about 9:27 - just in time as the wind became too strong about 5 minutes after showtime. We'd just finished cleaning up at around 11pm and then torrential downpours started - and it kept raining for at least two hours. So we were really really lucky! I may upload a video of the display later, but I was rather too close to film it properly.

Paul

Paul,

It looks like mostly everything played out accordingly, as expected.

Yeah, I was assuming that there would be some close calls around that time. I spotted the clusters of showers and storms moving in from the Southeast at least 2 hours before they pushed in your direction, so I got a bit nervous. However, it's good to hear that everything went well despite the fact. This is why it's often difficult to predict precisely where showers and storms will develop along a cold front, only until clusters of cells begin to form and push towards the given area within a small time frame, and hence the issuing of risks of steady rains and heavy thunderstorms in all of Southern Quebec.

It would seem that you faced quite the weather scenario - lightning in the far distance, strong winds and torrential downpours, but again I'm happy things worked out for the best. I'm not really expecting anything of the sort for this coming weekend since, at this point in time, a gorgeous high pressure ridge is building in, ushering in mild humidity, warm temperatures and fair skies. Assuming the models continue to cooperate with this trend, then I wouldn't have much to cover for the weekend for the first time this season. In the meantime, showers and storms along yet another cold front will make their appearances much later tomorrow evening-overnight into Thursday.

Anyhow, I hope to see the display on your video that you took!

Trav.