Things seem to be, unfortunately, falling into place with my last report. A severe thunderstorm watch is currently in place for virtually the entire island of Montreal. There is a great amount of windshear currently in the the Southern Quebec region, and moisture levels are, as mentioned before, rather high, so I'm not surprised in the least that Environment Canada prompted the watch. I also believe that the East end experienced a strong storm with reports of a funnel cloud in that area, perhaps about an hour and a half ago. Most of the cells out there are light to moderate in nature, but as I had predicted, quite a few impressive isolated and clustered cells have already ignited within the last few hours, one of which hit the Eastern part of the Island. I've been picking up some mean-looking cells coming from the expected S-SW direction since just before noon, and hence the recent t-storm watch.

This watch is in effect until the early evening hours, though the timespan could extend itself because of the high moisture values continuing into the evening - I'll keep an eye on that, but most of these cells should lose their punch after sunset anyway.

Equipt yourselves with light jackets - not so much because of the air being periodically a tad on the cool side (it will stay fairly humid anyway), but rather because they will come in handy in the event of rain, or whatever form of showers. These storms are hit and miss, which is why there's the chance for rain and storms all day, but the steadier rainfall will come later this evening, most especially into the overnight into most of tomorrow (and hence the larger P.O.P).

Fortunately, winds are coming out from the SE currently and again will be at an ideal speed while maintaining that direction (sometimes Easterlies as well), so even light rain showers, should they occur, won't do much in the way of ruining the show. Winds, however, serve virtually no purpose under heavier rain conditions.

Anyhow, that's the way the weather works. This is probably the longest episode of consecutive days with instability I've seen in a long time.

Trav.

Travis - thank you very much for the update.

I was wondering if you could give us an idea about how persistant you expect the rain to be. Do the odds indicate that if it rains, we will see it continue for extended periods or is it more likely that we see isolated, on again/off again rianfall?

Watching the radar there seems to be a line of storms moving along the St Lawrence from Kingston and another set over the Adirondacks to the south. Hopefully they'll get themselves over and done with before 10pm - like happened last night. The good news is that it's been pretty dry for the final day of setup so everything should be OK even if it rains early this evening.

Paul.

TRae,

Before the overnight hours approach, the rain and thunderstorm cells along the low's warm front will be widely isolated, but following this time frame, that rains will become increasingly persistent, and there's the possibility that it could begin into the later evening hours as well.

As Paul mentioned, there are/were some strong cells pushing in from the South onto highway 401 between Cornwall up till Trenton (warnings are in place for several counties at this point). However, because of the system's position and motion, and because of the general counterclockwise circulation around low pressure, we need to moreso pay attention to the cells developing towards the South and the extreme Southwest direction. At this point, due to the current movement of rain bands, everything else being constant, there's a reasonable chance that we may just encounter mainly cloudy conditions for the evening (with the risk of thunderstorms or showers), but these bands are also showing some signs of curving gently towards the NW even though they are predominantly moving out towards the NE, which is why I'm still keeping an eye out.

In short, showers and thunderstorms are developing in clusters and will do so up till most of this evening while behaving in an isolated manner. The more persistent bands of precipitation are most likely to commence overnight, but possibly during the late evening as well. If they do occur this evening, then I personally believe that they will be persistent given the very nature of warm fronts.

The weather watch still remains, but it's clear that most of the severe weather is in Eastern Ontario.

Trav.

There's a line of thunderstorms coming through right now. Take a good look at the storm structure and its distinctively shelf cloud - this is indicative of powerful updrafts and possibly large hail, and of course, the chance for a weak tornado developing.

I was just out storm chasing for a little, but I beat the storm back to Montreal.

Trav.

A low pressure system, this time coming in from the Prairies, is going to be quickly pushing Eastward and making its way into the Eastern portion of the country. Because of the shifting jet stream pattern by end week, the system will slow down and eventually become temporarily blocked off. As a result, once again, atmospheric instability will be set in place and thus will create clusters of isolated showers and thunderstorms across mainly Southern Ontario, as well as here into Southern Quebec - some of these cells could once again reach severe limits due to increasing atmospheric moisture and a steady Southwesterly flow. Temperatures are also expected to increase towards the higher 20's while the SW flow will usher in a little more additional moisture, so things will get more onto the sticky side.

Unlike the system that affected Canada last night, these are not expected to be persistent rain showers, but rather the risk of thunderstorms and convective rainfall throughout the day, including possibly the evening and overnight hours as well. This pattern holds true for Sunday as well.

A further update will come later tomorrow, but I'm confident that the atmosphere will behave in this manner. Fortunately, days like this tend to have a fair amount of sunshine. But if ya like it hot and humid, then this weekend's your weekend!

And btw, guys, the funnel cloud that I had touched on briefly yesterday (the 23rd) actually touched down and became a tornado, except over the water, so we call this a waterspout instead. Take a look at these stunning images here:

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/your_weather/photos_your_weather/0

I particularly like the picture with the twister seen in the distance while you can see the good old Jacques Cartier bridge as well. Excellent shots and video footage. I also have some video of today's impressive storm cloud if anyone is interested - I'll be uploading it real soon.

Trav.

As always, being consistent with my last report for tonight's display, I believe that this will be another night to have your umbrellas handy.

To briefly reiterate what was said before, a soon to be pesky large Prairie low pressure system, who's center in situated well to the North, will eventually slow down due to modifications in the jet stream pattern - the system has already been very slow moving, as a result. More to the point, accompanying the low is an upper level trough extending well down South into Southern Ontario and Ohio and eventually through to Southern Quebec. Troughs, like frontal systems, act to enhance atmospheric instability and therefore providing the necessary lift for severe thunderstorms to develop from Southwestern Ontario all the way up to the Eastern Townships. The risk in Southern Quebec will arrive moreso into the afternoon hours and through the evening as moisture levels are definitely going to remain high. Severe weather also exists in part because there is decent windshear in the atmosphere over the course of the next 24 hours.

May I remind you that these are not persistent bands of precipitation, as what was seen during the system coming up from New York during Canada's display. This is rather isolated clusters of thunderstorm cells and convective rainfall forming in a ubiquitous manner throughout the day. I suspect that Environment Canada will issue t-storm watches sporadically today in both Ontario and Quebec, but again, most of the severe will die off by around sunset and following that point. However, decent thunderstorm activity is still very well possible during all of the evening hours and the early overnight hours.

In the end, it is best to have your umbrellas handy, as well as a light jacket. The jacket is moreso handy in the event of whatever rainfall, not because of the air frequently being cool - the complete opposite, in fact. Convectional rains are often heavier than just regular persistent rain showers, so do keep that in mind, should they occur. Again, highs will be in the very high 20's, possibly cracking 30 C (depending on how much sun we get), and it will be more humid than it has been for some time (humidex values still well into 30's in the evening), courtesy of the abundant moisture present. Winds will most likely be coming out of the S and mostly SW given the positioning of the isobars in the models. Speeds should be ideal between 15-25 km/h, but please note that they will be a little gusty during the day (some gusts reaching closer to 40-45 km/h).

Other than that, the UV index is relatively high tomorrow, so do take the necessary precautions if you're expected to be outdoors for extended periods.

We'll keep an eye to the sky during the day - it is shaping up to be one of those July severe weather watch days.

Trav.

Well, we had some steady on and off convective rainfall, along with some embedded thunder and lightning, from that first wave of preciptation associated with the upper level trough. The next wave moving in from Eastern and Southern Ontario is to do with the associated cold front, so there's still the chance for some rainfall and thunderstorms to move in the next few hours once the front advances closer to the region. Most of the severe weather is state's side, but there are some cells behind this upcoming cluster of clouds and embedded cells that are worth watching - these clouds will be making an entrance momentarily. There's a chance that we could see mainly cloudy conditions, but the risk of storms and rainfall is there, of course. Fortunately, however, behind this cluster, things are clearing out substantially, so we may actually be alright in time for the fireworks once this secondary wave comes through. Still though, isolated thunderstorms are possible till midnight and just slightly into the overnight.

Notice the temperatures have dropped off quite a bit following the rain, as well as the winds dying off quite a bit - such is to be expected, but the humidity will return during the evening. Winds will be lighter at about 10-15 km/h as opposed to the 15-25 km/h (this is due to the increase in speed of the front). The direction remains the same.

Unfortunately, Wednesday's forecast is another risky one since another system is coming up from the U.S midwest. As usual, we'll keep an eye on it.

Trav.

Referring back to my closing comment from before, Wednesday's forecast is calling for returning unstable weather. We're still dealing with a somewhat zonal jet stream pattern, and this is partly why it has been such a heavily convective July across many regions of Northern North America. In any case, this coming Praririe system is quite organized and will be easily propelled due to this configuration, so in essence the models are currently suggesting that at this speed, the risk for once again isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the cold frontal boundary by late morning in Southern Quebec and persist up until early overnight.

I suspect that most of the day will be dry given this type of atmospheric scenario, but as the front advances, convective showers and t-storms will develop sporadically along and well out ahead of it for the afternoon and evening. With this sort of weather pattern in mind, we will see a fair bit of sunshine for most of the day, and winds will likely be in the form of Southerlies and Southwesterlies. Although it's not suggested as much yet in the models, I believe that winds will be a little gusty at times (from the same direction(s)) as the front gradually moves into the region through the day, perhaps identical in speeds as what we have seen back during Austria's display and through that day.

For now, an upper level trough is still providing the instability necessary for thunderstorms and showers to develop today, but tomorrow (Tuesday) is, courtesy of high of pressure, going to be quite fair with a mix of sun and cloud with relatively dry conditions, so if you don't like the extreme heat and humidity, then tomorrow's your day. Wednesday onwards it's back to that warm, moist and unstable atmosphere, which is my personal favorite kind of weather.

Another report will come either tomorrow or into early Wednesday, as well as, if needed, some following up on the tracking of cells on Wednesday itself.

Trav.

Thanks for the early update Trav. Hopefully the States will have Austria's luck and if it is to rain at 10:00 pm on Wednesday, it will be 2 minutes after the dislay has ended like this past weekend (that was amazing wasn't it?)

On the bright side (pun partially intended), The Weather Network's forcast makes Saturday the 2nd look to be a nice day for China's display - yes, it ought to be Sunny for Sunny (that pun was totally intended).

It would be nice to get back to worry-free weather after the conditions surrounding the previous two displays.

Tyler

Latest weather for tomorrow from Environment Canada is looking better:

Wednesday
Day: Sunny with cloudy periods. High 28. UV index 8 or very high.
Night: Cloudy. A few showers beginning near midnight. Low 19.



Paul.

Rocco's enthusiasm has perhaps rubbed off on Mother Nature.

Good evening,

Building onto what was mentioned before in my last message, a cold front, associated with a Prairie low, is quickly making its way Eastward from Southern and Eastern Ontario and closely entering our region towards the late evening and predominantly the overnight hours.

As the warm sector of air moves into Southern Quebec earlier in the day, moist warm air will gradually build in and instability will soon be prompted to develop. As a result, we'll be having a mostly sunny (with increasing cloudiness later on) and moderately humid day, along with temperature highs ranging between 26-29 Celsius. With the moisture content, it will feel more like the mid 30's during the afternoon. However, despite what most of the forecasts are illustrating, once that warm front comes through, I personally wouldn't rule out the chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop later tomorrow afternoon into the evening.

With respect to the evening hours, temperatures will remain between 23-25 C with lingering humidity, making it feel into the low 30's or high 20's - likely the latter. Seeing that the front is closing in, you will most surely notice the more partly cloudy-overcasted pattern along with more threatening looking clouds becoming more rampant in the sky by the early evening. This will also mean that winds will be breezy at times between 15-25 km/h coming largely from the S-SE. Through the day itself, you will notice large towering cumulus clouds also forming in the afternoon because of the instability present (and hence the "cloudy periods" that you're currently seeing in the various forecast outputs). Overall, though, the weather tomorrow will be nice, so enjoy it, but just be aware of these other little variables at the same time.

That's the way the weather should work. Fortunately, because of the front nearing the region during the evening, we are mostly dealing with the risk of thunderstorms and convective rains before they become more persistent in development during the overnight, in which case, it could be a noisy one tomorrow overnight. As a result, it would be good to have your umbrellas, once more, on standby, just in case of anything - it is very unstable at that time. I checked the atmospheric dynamics for tomorrow with regards to instability, and some storms in both Quebec and especially Ontario are potentially capable of reaching severe limations as well.

And as Paul quoted from EC, the UV index is very high tomorrow, but you guys know the drill when it comes to that.

TRae - Indeed, it would be most appropriate to have sunny weather for Sunny International, who is representing China this Saturday. I'm still watching the forecast models carefully, but it could be another unstable weekend. I suppose that in the meantime we should be of good cheer and say that we will have worry-free weather. It's amazing because only one display out of eight (South Korea) had their day of presentation completely free of any threats of rain whatsoever. I was right to say this Summer would be a busy one, weatherwise.

Trav.

Good afternoon,

Everything in my last post still holds true. The only little modification I'd like to make is to the winds. Mostly Southeasterlies to occasional shifts to Easterlies still remains, but the speeds are generally a little lighter in nature, ranging from 10-15 km/h, although I wouldn't rule out the possibility of seeing periodic moderate winds as the front gets progressively closer.

Now, the clouds, as expected, have already begun to creep into our region (although a little earlier than I initially thought), and there are large clustered convectional rain cells developing to our West and Southwest associated with the cold front, and are already moving in this direction. This means that we could see some on and off pesky showers and embedded thundershowers for within the next hour and onwards - it's already raining cats and dogs in Ottawa.

Oh yes, as large as my previous post was, I did forget to mention to also bring a light jacket, in addition to an umbrella, in case of rainfall. I'll continue to monitor the cells as the front nears. Temperatures will be from 22-23 Celsius, but it will feel a little warmer with the humidity.

Trav.

I hope to avoid the rain tonight (at least, during the show), especially that it will be my 125th in-park Montreal competition display!

Fred