I hope to avoid the rain tonight (at least, during the show), especially that it will be my 125th in-park Montreal competition display!

The radar doesn't look too bad - it will start to rain shortly but should stop in less than an hour.

Fred, you have me beat! Tonight will be my 123rd in-park display, for a total of 148 displays seen in total, the closing show being my 150th.

Paul.

The bands that are coming through currently are virtually decayed thunderstorm cells, and as they move in this direction, they fizzle out substantially, leaving us with nothing but a few light rain showers, for now.

Following this large widespread cloud, we will be entering a brief dry slot. As the front gradually advances, new cells will begin to emerge like popcorn on radar (this is the case in Southern and Eastern Ontario currently), so that's why we have the chance of showers and thunderstorms (some heavy) for the remainder of the day up until later tomorrow afternoon - it has nothing to do with this current cloud cluster. However, I can't help but wonder why the various forecasts say straight showers and/or storms...it's merely the chance of showers and storms tonight and this evening.

Anyhow, keep an eye to the sky.

Trav.

As the front gradually advances, new cells will begin to emerge like popcorn on radar (this is the case in Southern and Eastern Ontario currently), so that's why we have the chance of showers and thunderstorms (some heavy) for the remainder of the day up until later tomorrow afternoon -

True, but the cloud cover we have had for several hours has limited the daytime heating and surely this greatly reduced the possibility of convection leading to cell development this evening? I can see that storms will pop up tomorrow if the day starts out sunny but I would think the chances are diminished for this evening. At least, that's what the optimist in me is saying I've noticed the forecasts have been far too pessimistic recently - even for Canada's display (not your forecasts though Trav)

Paul.

Hi Paul,

I'm impressed. What you say is true with regards to the limits of daytime heating, but because we have a large amount of moisture currently present in the atmosphere, it easily compensates for this loss. If we get even small amounts of sun appearing elsewhere, as is the case in Eastern Ontario, it does also provide assistance to the already buoyant airmass. Notice the cells starting to already emerge, even though we're into the late afternoon hours.

Regardless, with cold fronts, they simply wedge up the warm moist air ahead of it and condense it rapidly into showers and possibly powerful thunderstorms. However, because of the fact that we're now getting into sunset, and therefore losing the sun, it limits thunderstorms from reaching severe criteria, or at least the chances of them reaching that level. This isn't always the case, though, because severe weather can still emerge during the evening/overnight hours depending on both the strength of the front and the amount of moisture out ahead of it (this is one prime reason behind frequent lightning). Cold fronts, in general, enhance instability because they supply a continuous flow of cool air at mid levels of the atmosphere, so this does generate persistent thunderstorms/thundershowers and convective rain cells to emerge pretty easily. In this case, this is a fairly strong cold front (not exceptionally strong, but strong nevertheless) and it can still generate some decent cells to develop.

As for the forecasts, I know they've been fairly pessimistic, but when we work with thunderstorms, it is often mostly associated with a "chance" or "risk", even if they say straight thunderstorms and what have you. This is because it is often difficult to predict precisely where thunderstorms will hit, as compared to straight showers. Notice that forecasts are often more accurate in the Winter in predicting snowstorms as compared with the unpredictable nature of thunderstorms. For me, predicting Canada's forecast was pretty easy merely because of the movement of the system.

And the cloud cover we've been seeing for most of today is not so much to do with the front itself - it is more of a "pre-frontal" system.

Edit: I'm sort of in an opposition with some of the forecasts mainly because of the sporadic behavior of these cells, and hence my issuing of the risk of showers and thunderstorms for tonight, as opposed to them being persistent. I'm expecting those winds to become moderate this evening as well at times.

Trav.

What can I say? Once more, unsettled weather still remains a key player for the next little while. With respect to China's presentation day, a system coming in from the US midwest will eventually merge with this almost stationary low that has been plaguing us with persistently unstable weather since the American performance. Exiting Southern Ontario by the early afternoon hours, this newly combined low will create instability for Eastern Ontario, Southern Quebec and the Western Maritimes come Saturday into most of Sunday, and so showers and thunderstorms are certainly going to pop up. Fortunately, I'm not really expecting the persistent type of rain associated with this, nor am I so much anticipating as many storms to be reaching severe limits as compared to previous times under these kinds of conditions (although there will be some popping up remotely), but for the most part, cells will be in the form of relatively widespread showers and light-moderate t-storms.

There will be a decent amount of moisture present, and temperatures will likely be reaching no more than 26 C. I expect North-Northwesterlies occasionally to surface according to the isobars in the models, so this may have a tendency to cause some smoke to sometimes blow towards the audience at La Ronde - I'll keep an eye on this though. Other than that, I've got a feeling it's going to be another night to have your umbrellas and jackets (moreso in case of rain and also this time because it may be a touch on the cool side) on standby.

With this kind of forecast, it makes 8/9 competitors having the risk for showers and thunderstorms this season - Canada being the only one, so far, with rains during their display. I hope the heavy rains and storms we had in the West Island didn't go off to the greater Montreal area and disrupt any of the setup process at the fireworks site for team China. Today, it's more of the same with showers and the risk for thunderstorms to develop during the day into the evening hours.

Anyhow, that's the way the weather should work over the course of the next 72+ hours.

Edit: As mentioned in the USA review thread, be sure to look out for footage of the stunning total and partial solar eclipse - quite something to see.

Trav.

Once again the weather was much better today than the pessimistic forecasts we've being seeing from Environment Canada and MeteoMedia. I did read somewhere that Environment Canada, in particular, is suffering poor forecasts because budget cutbacks means they can't keep their computers up to date. It seems that they are having trouble forecasting more than 1 day ahead with any degree of accuracy. Perhaps this is because there's more energy in the system now due to global warming or maybe it's just a La Nina artifact. Either way, the accuracy the past few years has got steadily worse.

In terms of media-based forecasters, I find Pascal Iovakis to be pretty accurate most of the time. He's on RDI and CBC radio 1 in the mornings.

Paul.

Once again the weather was much better today than the pessimistic forecasts we've being seeing from Environment Canada and MeteoMedia

Ah, the challenges for the meteorologist during this season. They've both issued the risk of showers and thunderstorms, and it's understandable as to why they did given the airmass. However, I agree that both organizations have the notion of being pessimistic with their forecasts during the Summer (as do all, in general), but again this is mostly due to the very unpredictable nature of convectional rains and thunderstorms - it has always been some of the greatest challenges in the realm of forecasting to predict precisely where t-storm cells, in particular, will occur only until they actually begin to develop and give off heat signatures that are detected by satellite as cloud tops - this is one reason we have storm chasers out there conducting research to study the behavior and dynamics of severe weather to maximize warning times for public safety.

As mentioned before, days that are usually unstable tend to be overall pleasant and at the same time you commonly see those clouds starting to swell up in the sky - possible the best proof of instability. In today's case, indeed it was a beautiful today, but that doesn't necessarily mean that storms weren't out there at all - they are all around us currently, even as I write this, and even since before noon (because of daytime heating and moisture). The fact is again that it is difficult to predict this kind of weather, and hence the reason behind issuing the chances or risks (usually associated with a "watch box" encompassing the most favorable areas ) - today was another example of just that. In one instance, if one is to say that there's a 40% chance of a thunderstorm in Montreal, this means that in any random location within the forecasted region has the chance of seeing a thunderstorm - we've seen that kind of behavior quite a bit this Summer on the island of Montreal or around the island itself. Of course, they may not happen at all, but there's always that risk.

Perhaps this is because there's more energy in the system now due to global warming or maybe it's just a La Nina artifact

I don't think global warming has anything to do with it since most models are designed to accomodate for a changing climate associated with a gradual rise (or decline) in temperature, in addition to predicting radical daily fluctuations in temperature, particularly during the Winter. Plus, the effects of global warming won't have much influence on a daily basis since they are relatively miniscule on such a small timescale as compared with more long term predictions over the next 5-10 years, for example, in which case, global warming is significant. Maybe not so much La Nina either since it has weakened considerably and reached a neutral state during early July.

In any case, before constructing my own forecasts, I tend to first carefully review all the available precipitation, helicity, and dewpoint models and then run a series of simulations that directly attempt to predict future forecasts for the short term - I then take the average of these simulations (like an ensemble forecast) and state the best estimated predictions. Another method I employ is simply to assess all the forecast outputs given by several large meteorological networks, and then sort of build on that while overlooking the obvious large margins of errors seen in their estimations. It's amazing to consider the sheer difficulty, especially with today's sophisticated tehchnology, although the forecaster's tools have advanced sharply in just the last 10 years.

I find it interesting that EC is experiencing budget cutbacks. Do you have the link(s) to this?

Trav.

Good afternoon,

My last report for our final competitor. Everything still stands firm from my last analysis a couple days ago. As a quick recap, the weather is widely unsettled. Now let me make it clear that "unsettled" doesn't automatically mean rain - rather it means that the atmosphere is unstable (just look at those clouds outside) and therefore is conducive for the potential for showers and thunderstorms to develop anywhere from Quebec City all the way SW to Hamilton, Ontario - a very buoyant airmass, something we are quite familiar with this Summer. Let's also not forget that days with instability heavily involve pleasant conditions for the majority of those particular days, despite how threatening the word "instability" may sound. Being consistent, I spotted a fairly strong storm cell in North-central parts of the island not too long ago - this is the pattern across many regions in Ontario and Quebec.

In any case, this evening's/afternoon's forecast is calling for the risk for thunderstorms and convective showers to continue to develop, persisting for the remainder of the day tomorrow. The cells are coming out from S-SW due to the configuration of the system - almost similar to Canada's weather). Temperatures are going to remain into the low 20's (around 21-23 C) with some mild humidity. The only thing I'd like to change slightly are the winds - they are predominantly out from the E, but may occasionally shift towards the North. The speeds are fairly light as well at about 10 km/h, which is a little bit of concern with respect to smoke accumulations due to humidity.

That's the way the weather should work, but again it would be good to have your umbrellas on stanby, as well as a light jacket or light sweater.

Still got to watch that forecast for Wednesday - it is currently a tricky one because of the jet stream, but I'll provide more details on that as we approach the day.

Edit: In addition to the above, there are several severe thunderstorm watches in place for Eastern Ontario and in Southern/Eastern Quebec. Montreal is not included in this, but I wouldn't be surprised if the city becomes a part of it later on. Either way, severe weather will settle by this evening.

Trav.

Just one last update, but it looks like we may get some slightly occasional moderate winds (at about 10-15 km/h - occasional breezes crossing over 20 km/h), although still variable between the East-Northeast. Of course, with thunderstorms, the winds do briefly pick up due to downdrafts, but again, we're under the risk for decent storms this evening.

For everything else, please refer to my post above.

Trav.

Good evening,

Wednesday's weather is a little complicated since it involves a combination of things, but what is mainly going to happen is that the precipitation associated with a warm front from a system moving Eastward South of the Canadian/American border is combining with another system's cold front that is affecting us to the N-NW - these two will merge to become one. There will be on and off steady rains and embedded thunderstorms developing with this coalesced low beginning through the overnight period tonight into the mid-late morning and gradually picking up through the afternoon Wednesday. The evening is a little tricky because yet another system is slowly developing and could merge quickly with this already combined low. This could very well be a problem, but of course it will depend on how fast these two systems become a larger single system - I will certainly keep an eye on this. Overall, though, the risk for rains and thunderstorms exists during Wednesday's evening hours regardless if this merges on time or not.

Temperatures this week are expected to be a little on the cool side due to the introduction of more Northerly-Northeasterly winds, but moisture levels will still definitely remain high. I have a feeling that jackets (especially with the slightly cooler air) and umbrellas may once again be needed to close off this year's competition.

Trav.

Keeping track with the last update, rains and possibly embedded thunderstorms (there is some electrical activity associated with some of these cells) are well on the way tonight (just momentarily within the next hour or so) through to tomorrow afternoon. Some of these bands of precipitation are capable of producing 3/4 of an inch of rain to over an inch (~25 mm+) in less than an hour's time, so prepare yourselves for a wet start to the day into a fair portion of the afternoon.

Regarding the evening, I'm expecting the winds to drop off a little bit from their more slightly gusty nature during this afternoon. The wind direction is a little tricky to forecast, but I'm personally anticipating a gradual shift in direction from the NE-ENE, much like it is now and has been throughout yesterday (Tuesday). With respect to speeds, I think they will be relatively light as we get into the later evening hours, but there could be occasional moderate breezes reaching close to 20 km/h

Temperatures will be unseasonably cool with highs reaching the high teens into the low 20's (18-21 C) - quite steady through the day (evening included). Moisture levels will remain high, but with respect to rains, by the time the later evening rolls around, I personally believe that we will be facing mostly overcasted conditions with some lingering on and off light rain showers (nothing like during the day, fortunately), as well as the risk of a thunderstorm.

That's the way the weather should work. Again, umbrellas and jackets are necessary. If I notice any changes in wind behavior, I'll post a report solely covering that.

What a wild and busy season this was - 90% of the performances had the threat of unsettled weather. Fortunately, the setup days for Panzera weren't too bad, but I'm more concerned for today's schedule.

Trav.

Good day,

Well, I was expecting a few sunny breaks on and off, and really, it is nice to see the place become so bright and pleasant. However, this does favor the development of more rainfall (and the risk for t-storms), as has been the case following the first appearance of the sun this afternoon. So far, we've accumulated almost 20 mm rain, which falls close to the range that was initially expected (much of which has fallen from the small thunderstorm early this morning). The reason why this area of low pressure is stationary is because it is being blocked off by a strong high pressure ridge North of Newfoundland, so that's why the periods of rain are persistent as opposed to just moving East-Northeastward as we commonly see in North America.

In any case, once more, I'm expecting mostly cloudy conditions this evening with the chance for some lingering on and off showers as well as the risk of a non-severe thunderstorm. Temperatures will remain in the range I specified before, so you'll need your jackets, as well as umbrellas (or whatever it is you use to shelter yourself) in the event of showers.

Finally, regarding the winds, because of the configuration of the system, I'm again expecting speeds to be predominantly light in nature - I ran a few simulations and the models are suggesting speeds between 4-8 knots, which is measurably anywhere from ~7 to 15 km/h. The wind direction itself, again because of the configuration of the system, is shifting from the ENE to a more WSW (this has been the case since 1:00 p.m. this afternoon), so at times there maybe some smoke blowing towards the audience at La Ronde. Similarly, because of the overall light winds and still persistent humidity, there may occasionally be smoke accumulations building up, particularly during the moments when the show becomes more active.

Looks like my business is done here for the season. Whew! What a Summer! Of course, if there are any major weather/space events down the line, I'll be sure to post them here briefly.

Enjoy Panzera, and let's hope we get the chance to scream our lungs out tonight, just like in the good old 90's!

Trav.

Once again the main weather forecast was overly pessimistic - they were forecasting rain to start last evening, yet it was gorgeous out (pity the show couldn't have been last night). And then it didn't really start raining until 5am and there was much less than the 40mm they were predicting would fall by this morning. So I'm going to stick with me own optimistic forecast that it will rain at some point this evening and then clear out ala China for the show this evening, though with much smoke

What a year - and a big thanks to Trav for his tireless weather detective work!

Paul.

Hi Paul,

it didn't really start raining until 5am and there was much less than the 40mm they were predicting would fall by this morning.

I know. I wasn't too sure why they established such a heavy load of rain to fall in such a small amount of time - I think it was under the assumption that the cells would remain strong and produce copious amounts of rain once they had moved in last night, but clearly these stayed well South of the border. I know that some of the cells were capable of dumping close to an inch of rain in one hour last night into the day today, and this was the case in some parts of Montreal and adjacent regions - some parts of the island and closely elsewhere have received over 50 mm (~2 inches) through the day today - parts of the West Island have received close to 40 mm as well, though just not falling by this morning as, I believe, Environment Canada had forecasted - this was a surprise to me as normally rainfall warnings would be given out under such expected amounts.

It sounds like you've got good reason to be optimisitic, so let's hope for Paul's forecast to become a reality, as I'm sure it will. Just the smoke accumulations (as well as occasional inconvenient direction) and the chance of showers that we have to look out. I'm mostly calling for, as mentioned before, overcasted conditions with the chance of lingering showers.

And really, it was no trouble attempting to make sense of the various forecasts and then coming down with my own personalized ones - I'm just glad to know that I was of service.

Enjoy the show, guys. I'm so anxious to know who the winners will be.

Trav.

If any of you are interested, take a look at the night sky tonight and over the next few weeks to find a planetary cluster composed of three planets: Mercury, Venus and Saturn. Venus is the easiest to see as it stands out as a very bright white-like star - locate that first. Mercury, which is to the right in the trio, is the hardest to spot as it is the dimmest, but once you locate Venus to the left, it should serve as a reference point to find the other planets in the cluster. However, if you do have binoculars, it may help to better see it. Saturn will be in the middle of these two planets, but will be in very close proximity to the right of Venus.

To see the cosmic spectacle, turn your focus to the low Western horizon and wait for the planets to emerge moments following sunset and beyond that point. Again, this will last for the next few weeks, but during this course the planets will appear to be slowly lowering towards the horizon night after night, after which they will eventually become invisible to us. Be sure that there are no obstructions, such as tall trees or elevated structures that can hamper your view. How much lighting is in your surroundings can also significantly affect your viewing. The weather, being the biggest factor, should be alright for tonight and this weekend as high pressure (something that was absurdly scarce this Summer) slowly builds in, but clouds may tend to occasionally interfere - be patient if that's the case.

The spectacle is fresh as it surfaced just last night (the 13th).

Trav.