Unfortunatley I won't be attending this one guys,

It's sucks but I know. I have a concert to attend, because not only am I a consumer pyrotechnician who set's a bunch off and get's paid, but I am also a musician! So while I'll be playing some Led Zepplin, La Ronde will be giving a tribute to the king of Pop. I am a great fan of the pop of what they had back in the days that I danced to when I was 5 such as (Jackson 5, Michael Jackson, Prince, Madonna and more 80's music even though I'm 15 and I now listen to Rock and Metal). If I had a choice I'd still go to rock, my heart is rock, and I was brought up by music of my mom's time. I know it will be a pleasant display, and I hope you all enjoy! Trav, I recommend you filming this display, you might get thousands of views in the next few weeks!

Pat

To elaborate on what I had mentioned before, here are the results of those Ontario storms:

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/090820/national/tornado_warnings

Please refer to my previous post for more details about this system.

Trav.

The forecast for the final evening of the competition still remains identical to what I had stated in my last update. However, the models have shifted somewhat in terms of the speed of the systems in the East, so I'll have to make some adjustments.

Firstly, temperatures are still expected to remain into the low 20s C for the evening tomorrow (likely around 22 to possibly 24 C in the metropolitan area). Humidity levels are to be at relatively high values, even though the cold front has come through already. As a result, with the humidity, it will feel close to the mid 30s C in the afternoon tomorrow and the very low 30s C in the evening.

The winds are something to look at as they will likely be quite light at speeds of about 4 to no more than 8 km/h. Directional tendency is actually shifting from the SW during the day to the Northeast to North-Northeast (NNE) by the evening hours, so smoke may appear to be moving off very slowly to your left for folks at La Ronde. I guess any possible smoke accumulations won't be so bad considering that this is only a 10-11 minute performance. I'll post an "EDIT" should the predominant direction shift tomorrow in the later model runs, so check back with me from time to time tomorrow, just in case.

Finally, although the cold front has pretty much moved through, a trough associated with the same low is lingering in Ontario and Quebec, and is setting the stage for unsettled weather later in the day for these regions. The trough is actually drawing in moisture from Hurricane Bill, so that's in part why we're still getting overall high levels (not very high, like earlier today) of moisture still circulating in Southern Quebec. We're looking at partly to mostly cloudy skies, in general, for the later afternoon period and into the evening, but I wouldn't rule out the possibility for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop along this trough during these times (30-40% P.O.P if anything). Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy skies for the evening.

Hurricane Bill is expected to hit Nova Scotia, extreme Southern New Brunswick and Eastern P.E.I. as a borderline category 1-category 2 storm, bringing with it as much as 200 mm of rain (especially with the moisture enhancement from this past system), winds up to 140 km/h and significant storm surge and coastal erosion. Newfoundland will also likely receive the storm as a category 1. Had it not been for the trough in the polar jet, this storm would have affected Eastern Ontario, Southern Quebec and the Northeastern U.S instead of being deflected to the NE.
------------------------------------------------------
And so concludes the weather reports for 2009. It was quite a busy one during both June and July and thus certainly had me often vigilant. At the same time, however, it was a pleasure to try to make sense of the weather we dealt with every Saturday as well as in between. Though the season is over, I'll be more than delighted to take any requests for personalized forecasts, so feel free to give me a shout - you know where to find me. Also, if there are any weather-related curiosities, please don't hesitate to send me your questions - I'd more than love to address them.

Other than that, I'll probably continue to post any major weather events of interest or even space news in the near future and the upcoming months, especially as activity around here starts to wane in the dark months of both Fall and Winter.

Again, I'm hoping that my prediction will come true with us getting away with an overall mild Winter this year with hopefully an Indian Summer. So far, my prediction for August has pretty much come true in terms of storm activity in the East and with respect temperature trends. Hurricane season, too, got off to a slow start likely due to El Nino.

Take care,

~Trav.~

Hi guys,

I just had wanted to share some neat pictures of a rainbow that I had taken on the late afternoon of September 23rd following a brief thundershower that went through our area:

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG1914.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG1910.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG1913.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG1915.jpg

T-shower closing in:

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG1907.jpg

Sunset following the storm:

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG1923.jpg

The rainbow was actually a perfect arc splitting the sky. The fainter secondary bow that had accompanied it during a couple of moments when the sun illuminated brightly on the horizon additionally was showing off in all its glory. The thundershower was in association with an approaching cold front, which is why today and yesterday are quite cool and drier compared to the humid and very warm weather seen prior to the front's passage.

Warmer weather on the way for the weekend with this incoming system from the U.S, though it will become increasingly unsettled by very late Saturday and on and off thereafter as we get into the work week. As the deep trough continues to develop in the polar jet in the East, an organized and quickly developing low will take form out West as it collects moisture and as its circulation increases - this may provide some possibly gusty Northerlies and Northwesterlies as we get into Tuesday. Because of this deepening trough, the winds around the associated low are strengthening and helping to usher in a colder airmass by the time we reach Tuesday, so it will feel like typical October for the first few days of the month, unfortunately. September has been pretty good overall, though this one ranks as one of the driest on record - we barely picked up 20 mm of rain so far this month and the monthly average is closer 100 mm, making September usually the wettest month of the year.

I'm also keeping an eye on a developing ridge in the West - if the ridge holds strong as it travels East, it may boost our temperatures back into the very low 20's C by next weekend or more likely into the work week (still have to wait on newer model projections, though). Should that be the case, there's a chance that we may see a nice small stretch of pleasant weather taking place close to the Thanksgiving weekend.

Trav.

Hi guys,

As the Fire on Ice displays are starting off soon, I thought it would be appropriate to give a brief analysis as to what sort of weather can be expected for the first display taking place this evening (the 5th of December). In general, aside from the cold and relatively gusty winds or inconvenient wind direction, weather isn't as much of an issue for the fireworks during the latter part of Fall and through the course of the Winter as compared to the Summer time since, primarily, the atmosphere is governed with very poor moisture content. The actual prediction of weather conditions is also somewhat an easier task at this time of year for reasons I won't go into (unless you're interested, that is ).

Seeing that high pressure is beginning to advance in Ontario and Quebec, we should see a little more in the way of sunny breaks for next number of days. Temperatures, however, are dropping behind the low that brought us so much rain Wednesday night. Winds should begin to change direction from Westerlies to gradual Northeasterlies, but will generally be calm to light (no more than 8 km/h during the evening). Close proximity to the water, however, may invite some occasionally higher speeds, but should still remain, overall, light in nature. The ambient temperature is likely -3 to as chilly as -5 Celsius during the evening depending on cloud cover extent, along with a very slight windchill of -6 C (winds are too light to generate a significant wc factor). Dress accordingly, especially since evening-overnight temperatures are now starting to exhibit a more sub-zero tendency.

To close, let me say that this past November was most impressive with its relatively high monthly temperature mean (possibly the third, or even second warmest on record). Slightly above seasonal weather should continue more and less for the next few days or so, although you can already feel that Wintery transition settling in.

Trav.

I did forget to mention in my previous post, but we could be potentially facing our first Winter storm later on this week in Ontario and Quebec. Still days out, but the trajectory of this system is the key factor to consider as this determines whether or not we get any real accumulating snow, as well as what the predominant type of precipitation will be. I'm personally hoping to avoid the system altogether.

Trav.

I'm hoping that the storm spares you Trav but I'd love to be waist-deep in snow next week.

Thanks, as always, for the weather updates. I hope to make it for Ampleman tonight.

Tyler

Hi Tyler,

You may very well end up having your wish granted as most of the models are still projecting the storm to have an impact in Ontario and Quebec by later Wednesday. The only thing we really need to keep tabs on is temperature tendency since this determines what type of precipitation will be most pronounced - if temperatures are warm enough, it should prevent large amounts of snow from falling, although this seems to be the case for Southern Ontario moreso than in Southern Quebec, where temperatures are closer to freezing. Under the current scenario, we will receive measurable snowfall at first with occasional ice pellets (maybe thundersnow in between), then this may transition over to rain/wet snow, and then back to snow when temperatures drop off behind the low. If staying below freezing most of the time, then this could result in some 20 cm of snow. Winds are gusty, regardless, and, either way, it's looking to be a messy Wednesday and Thursday. Once the system departs, it will make way for colder temperatures to settle into the weekend as we're getting strong Northwesterly winds on the back end of the low. Anyhow, still a slight chance that we can avoid the storm if the jet stream keeps it South of here, but that doesn't seem too probable at this point.

Assuming that you attended, I hope you enjoyed Ampleman's display to an optimum extent. I'm particularly looking forward to Royal Pyrotechnie's display.

Trav.

Following up on the previous posts, as initially mentioned, colder air is funneling into much of Ontario and Quebec behind the vicious storm system that brought us so much snow yesterday and last night. Consequently, we will see temperatures that are a fair deal colder than what was witnessed during the display last week. Last Saturday, the low of -6 C arrived until the overnight hours once the clouds had cleared, leaving the evening with a relatively comfortable temperature of 0 to -1 C due to mainly cloudy conditions. Conversely, with a large area of high pressure moving in from the South, mostly sunny skies will likely dominate this Saturday with progressively diminishing winds to lighter standards by the evening, though breezier than last week at as much as 15-17 km/h (Southwesterly). With overall clear evening skies coupled with wind tendency, temperatures should fall in the -8 to -10 C range along with a windchill as cold as -17 to -20 C. Let's just say that Saturday is a cold one, especially in the early morning hours where temperatures are below -10 C. Tomorrow (Friday) is more and less the same.
--------------------------------------------
As far as the storm is concerned, the models did an excellent job predicting its trajectory, even as much as four days in advance when I had first introduced the possibility of a Winter storm. As anticipated, this ended up as more of a "snowstorm" than a Winter storm in the strictest sense, for it was all snow for us in Southern Quebec as compared to the variable precipitation exhibited in Southern Ontario (even thunderstorms were reported in Niagara). Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes also broke out in parts of the Southern U.S in association with the low, and the storm is blamed for at least 10 deaths in the U.S altogether. The storm was also once the size equivalent to a third of the contiguous U.S. Total snow accumulation from this storm is estimated at roughly 27 cm (nearly a foot) in Montreal, which seems consistent with some of my own individual measurements. Snow was accumulating at an average rate of 2 cm per hour following 10 a.m Wednesday morning, and the strongest recorded wind gust was roughly 68 km/h from the East.

Winds, in general, have been gusty out from the W/NW due to a strong pressure gradient existing between this upcoming high and the departing storm system. Oscillating wind direction between the West and Southwest today has resulted in many outbreaks of snowsqualls in Ontario generated off of Lake Huron - on the mosaic radar, this is shown as a looooooong band of snow that spans for about 700 km, affecting areas some distance to the Northeast, such as Montreal, causing periods of heavy flurries today interspersed by sunny breaks. As the high pressure system moves East as another low moves in from the West, I am seeing signatures in this setup resulting in temperatures going back up to seasonal into Sunday, or even a touch above freezing by Monday and Tuesday.

The bottom line is that those who were looking forward to a nice blanketing of snow in time for this Saturday's display got their wish granted by Mother Nature.

Trav.

Greetings,

The forecast for tomorrow, the 19th of December, is calling for continuing bitterly cold conditions, though a slight improvement from what temperatures were yesterday (-15 C as a daytime high). The primary forces behind this prolonged outbreak of cold Arctic air is because of a persistent jet stream pattern, where high pressure has been common Northwest towards the Hudson Bay while strong areas of low pressure have been present over the Atlantic, bringing particularly Newfoundland round after round of good measurable snows. The result of this setup has led to the ushering and migration of deep, cold Arctic air from the West (who of which experienced the cold to a much, much greater magnitude over the course of the last week) Eastward into much of Ontario and Quebec since Wednesday, bringing daytime highs into the minus teens and overnight lows close to, or below the -20 C threshold. Windchills have also been quite harsh with values of -25 to -30 C in the early morning and overnight hours. Brrrrrrr

This Saturday's weather is no exception to the rule and is expected to exhibit similar conditions, though with slightly "warmer" temperatures for daytime highs i.e. closer to -10 than, say, -15 C. The evening-overnight period, however, is still rather cold with temperatures of below -10 C (likely around -12 to -13 C by 8 p.m - definitely below -10 C). Winds are generally calm and variable for most of the day and evening, but will gradually increase to lighter and eventually moderate speeds as the later evening and overnight develops due to an intensifying Nor'Easter as it moves Northward along the Eastern seaboard of the U.S. Wind speeds, then, should be roughly in the range of 7 to no more than 10 km/h during the evening before reaching closer to the 20 km/h mark during the overnight and, given the position of the Nor'Easter at the time, directional tendency is in the form of North-Northwesterlies (NNW) to straight Northerlies. The resulting windchill factor is then between -16 to -19 C. The intensification of this low, coupled with high pressure to the Northwest (which is promoting mostly clear skies) will invite temperatures to drop off relatively fast. However, though the low itself will not be affecting Southern Quebec directly, it may bring in some occasional cloudy periods during the late evening and overnight, so this may, in this case, actually maintain temperatures and keep them from dropping quickly through the night. With the wind tendency, smoke should be moving off slowly towards your left. Similarly, as the winds are coming in mostly from your right (nearly at right angles to your viewing), tilting yourselves away enough to the left when watching the fireworks will somewhat help to avoid the breezes blowing completely in your face. All in all, dress accordingly - it might be wise to additionally equipt yourselves with some double-layered clothing, especially for the more cold-sensitive areas of the body.
-------------------------------------------------
This trend should persist for the weekend and linger on into the beginning of the work week next week, though to a lesser extent as an area of low pressure may be passing through and giving way to possibly more unsettled conditions. Temperatures could be regulating themselves to more seasonal (potentially above) standards as the week unfolds towards Christmas.

On a side note, as we're hitting the Winter solstice in approximately three days, we should start recovering some daylight VERY slowly once we cross December 21st, but you probably won't notice much of a difference in daylength until mid-January. At least there is some good news.

So, are we getting fed up with the season yet (even though it isn't officially Winter)?

Trav.

Despite all of the information I put into the previous post, I still did forget to mention one important thing, and that is the possibility of another Winter storm having an influence by the night of Christmas Eve into Christmas Day for both Ontario and Quebec, which seems a little fitting given the timing. I don't think, however, based on the prognostic models, that this storm will, should it have an impact, be at the same magnitude as the one we received back on the 9th, but it may bring with it a variety of precipitation, including measurable amounts of snow (temperature dependent, of course). This system, along with other previous small disturbances, are largely responsible for the temperatures gradually rising back up to seasonal (or above) by end-week. In any case, if the storm is expected to continue its projected development and trajectory, then you'll begin to hear more about it as the days progress.

And just to elaborate on a point from the last post related to cloudy periods, I'm thinking that there is a fair likelihood that we could see some partly cloudy skies tomorrow evening (Saturday) associated with that same Nor'Easter, so this will serve, if large enough in coverage, to maintain temperatures and keep them from falling quickly through the night (-12 to -14 C instead of -18 to -20 C). The Nor'Easter itself is expected to hammer much of the Northeastern states with loads of snow accompanied by dangerously gusty winds for many areas. Had it not been for this area of high pressure in place over Ontario and Quebec, then this storm would have been paying us a visit as well, bringing with it easily a foot of snow.

Dress warmly out there tomorrow evening, guys, and enjoy Royal if you plan on attending. For everything else, please refer to the post above.

Trav.

So, are we getting fed up with the season yet (even though it isn't officially Winter)?

Not the least bit Trav - though I may be alone on that!

Thanks, as always, for the precise weather report.

Echoing Trav's sentiments, for all in attendance, enjoy Royal tomorrow night.

Tyler

Echoing Trav's sentiments, for all in attendance, enjoy Royal tomorrow night.

I'll be there

Paul

Hi guys,

First, merry Christmas to all. I hope that everyone is enjoying themselves to the highest extent with friends and/or family! Your Christmas forecast is calling for mostly pleasant weather with comfortable temperatures close to the freezing mark (on the minus side), though with cloudy conditions and gradually breezier winds by the later afternoon hours due to that approaching Texas low (the next Winter storm).

The approaching low pressure system, called a Texas low, will progressively make its way into Eastern Ontario and Southern Quebec by overnight tonight into the morning of Boxing Day. This storm is responsible for a large amount of snowfall in the U.S Midwest. As it tracks Northeastward, its warm front will initially bring in some small snow accumulations (2-4 cm) before transitioning over to ice pellets, then freezing rain and then to mostly rain by the late evening and overnight hours through most of Sunday. Once Sunday evening draws closer, temperatures will begin to drop slowly and the rain will change back over to snow with some additional accumulations into Sunday night and Monday. Winds will also begin to pick up once again and shift from the SW to more North and Northwesterlies. In the process, temperatures will, consequently, plummet again to below seasonal values (about -10 C by Tuesday).

With regards to the final display of the Fire on Ice event, temperatures will be fairly mild at close to the freezing mark between -1 to 1 C in the evening. With the approximate position of the storm system at the time, winds are between the East to nearly Northeasterlies, so winds should be coming from behind most spectators when viewing, and thus blowing the smoke directly away. Speeds will gradually increase and vary depending on where you are on the island, but the average is between 18-24 km/h, producing a windchill of no less than -6 C. The air is also more saturated/damp towards the evening, so the cold may feel a touch more piercing whenever the wind blows. Precipitation is a little tricky to predict by the hour because of the speed of the warm front and its relative position during the evening., but, as mentioned, periods of snow could start things off by the morning hours of Boxing Day, and by the evening or even mid afternoon, rising temperatures may prompt a Wintery mix, including a brief period for patches of freezing rain before everything changes over to predominantly rain/showers during the later evening, so be cautious of that if heading out. Temperatures may also rise fast enough that we skip the snow altogether and head straight to the Wintery mix. Fortunately, if any freezing rain, I don't think it will be quite as extensive as what will be seen in places like Ottawa, for instance. However, even a small amount of freezing rain is sufficient enough to be dangerous for drivers and pedestrians alike, so, once again, be careful.

On a side note, due to temperatures rising steadily, this will prevent large amounts of snow from pilling up and accumulating, as compared to the previous storm earlier this month and what will be seen in Northwestern Ontario at the back end of this system. Temperature determines everything!

Trav.

Just so to follow up on my previous post, I am detecting some slowing in the movement of this storm due to the influence of high pressure stationed over central Quebec, and this may, as a result, allow for a slightly longer period for freezing rain to endure into the evening - this observation seems consistent with Environment Canada issuing a freezing rain warning for Southern Quebec and Eastern Ontario tomorrow (Boxing Day).

The approximate timing of the period for both freezing rain and ice pellets (Wintery mix) still applies as what I mentioned previously. I still don't think, however, that it will be quite as extensive as in places like Ottawa, but still significant in accumulation nevertheless - close to 5 mm worth (or more depending on endurance), which is a good amount of glaze on any surface. Remember that freezing rain creates some of the most treacherous conditions, so take care if you're planning on heading out for whatever reason. I imagine that there will also likely be flight delays with the presence of freezing rain at Trudeau airport later tomorrow.

It's a messy Boxing Day for much of the East.

Trav.