Greetings,

As most of you should and already know, the fireworks competition is heavily reliant on the weather, so it's good to know the latest conditions.

If any of you hear or know any new updates, you can post them here. So far, it's looking fine.

Regards,

Trav.

Saturday looks ideal:

http://www.weather.com/activities/travel/businesstraveler/weather/tend ay.html?locid=CAXX0301&from=search_10day[url=][/url]

The remnants of Arlene, the first low pressure system, should be here by tonight and stay throughout tomorrow and maybe persisting into some of Wednesday. Tempreatures will cool off somewhat, but it will still be fairly humid. We will get some descent amounts of rain with some thunderstorm activity, possibly.

However, the second low pressure system will be what changes everything. By the time the first exits, it wouldn't be too long before #2 gets in. This should bring us additional rain till Friday and continue to drop temperatures to the low to mid 20s, as I very well predicted 2 days ago. So far, it appears that Saturday will be spared the onslaught, for now, which is good news. Assuming this low pressure system takes more time to move, it should be gone by the end of Friday, or even Thursday, and thus leaving Saturday with mainly cloudy conditions, and maybe some isolated showers, with a 30% probability of precipitation.

All that said, it will be nowhere near as hot as we've experienced since June started, sorry to say. The expected temperature is 22 Celsius, which is far better than the exagerated temperature predicted before. I knew that couldn't be right. Now, the only thing we need to keep an eye on is on how long this low will stick around. Most likely we should be okay, but remember that this is a slow moving low, so persistency can be a problem. Lets wait and see what happens.

As for today, just remember that today is the last hot, humid and sticky day, so enjoy. What I really hate is when the meteorologists say that the low pressure systems will provide "relief" for southern Ontario and southern Quebec bringing fresh and cooler air. I hate that! That's not relief. This heat IS relief to me. I know many people suffer from smog and have asthma with other related problems, like heat stroke and fast dehydration because of high dewpoints, but considering what we went through in May and prior to that, we need these conditions as a reward. Also, the meteorologists fail to realize that it usually takes time before we can ever see such hot weather again, even during the summer. Sometimes we have to wait 1-2 weeks before something can happen and then a typical cold front would come through and ruin everything. Losing a month like May means that every other day needs to count. We're already almost half way through June, but this has been excellent, so far.

Despite that, Saturday is looking reasonable until further notice. The rest of the work week seems mostly wet. Enjoy the heat today, because sadly, it's coming to an end.

Regards,

Trav.

22 C is not enough. It's going to be very cold at night. I'll prolly end up going.

Do you remember last year's Pirotècnia Igual? It's was on June 19. I remember it was very cold, I was really freezing.. Do you remember the temperture?

Honestly, I'm glad that there's a cold front coming cause I have huge final exams this week and next week.
I won't be "dragged" into the summer feeling lol

Actually, it's going to be less than 22C now. The forecasted high is 16C for Saturday. Regardless if that changes, it wouldn't be substantial. In any case, it will be much cooler, thanks to that secondary cold front I spoke of a few days ago. In fact, the way that low was moving and its volume, I was so sure it would cool down things by Thursday onwards while it dumps rain. With it, there are a series of cold fronts which will push out the warm air by late Wednesday.

Also, Saturday, we may see some scattered showers along with a 40% chance. With a high of 16C, you'll need a jacket that evening. As you said, Pirotechnia Igual was really cold last year. I remember it perfectly when I had that jacket on. This year, it seems we'll get off to a similar start this year, unfortunately, despite what we've been experiencing in the past. Lets hope the rain will let off, at least. With the persistency of the second low pressure system, it's possible to witness some lingering showers, but chances are it can end by Friday.

Regards,

Trav.

Well, I got another update. It appears it will be cloudy with showers on Saturday with a 60% chance, but I suspect this prediction is a give and take type of scenario, as the second low pressure system is somewhat unpredictable in movement, but it is quite large, according to satellite imagery. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if it did change again.

However, even if it does indeed rain that day, we still have a chance at the evening forecast. Chances are the system will have moved out by then. In general, I suspect that whole low should be out of here by Friday-Saturday. But you can't rule out the chance of rains on Saturday, regardless.

As you can see outside, it is raining. This is because of the remnants of Arlene, which is now a regular area of low pressure, as I explained in the other thread. The second low pressure system, following this one, will be the bigger one that will cool off the place some more and bring more rainfall. We could get some sunny breaks in between, if we're lucky, but it looks mostly wet until Friday into Saturday, possibly.

All in all, it's still tough to say what will happen, despite what the forecast is telling me.

Regards,

Trav.

aujourd'hui j'ai écouté météo média et il ont expliqué qu'il ferait
16 degré celcius avec quelque passage nuageux.et avec 40%
de chance de précipitation.la température seras froide mais je croit
que ca feras du bien d'avoir froid après les hautes température qu'il a fait la semaine passé.mais pour les frilleux...porter un petit
manteaux.

It appears Saturday can be a give or take kind of day, but you'll definitely need your jacket in the evening. We're still expecting scattered showers, not straight rain, with a 40% chance followed by a high of 21C, but we still have a go on the evening forecast. It will actually be the coolest day of the week.

This forecast seems to be changing everyday, but you can get the indication that the threat of rain is there, but the information that we need is when the best chance of rain is during the day. I'm still working on that.

I was hoping the weather would cooperate more with some warmer temperatures, but it appears we're getting off to a similar start to last year's first-2nd show, although it appears that Monday and onwards is getting back on the hot side again, for now.

The crew members for Saturday were probably having a difficult time setting up the display, especially yesterday and today. I feel bad for them, especially since they're the first ones going.

Regards,

Trav.

Here's some good news. For some reason, since my first prediction, I figured that the second low pressure system will move out by Saturday. Most likely, it will, according to some satellite imagery. It will be persistent throughout today and all day tomorrow, but we can expect improving conditions by Saturday. From the same system, we may get some isolated showers during the day with a 30% probability, but that doesn't mean anything for the evening. Even if the wholw thing is going to take its time to move out on Saturday, it should be well out of the area by the evening hours. However, it will be best if you bring a sweater or a thin jacket, as the night will get much cooler since the expected high is about 21C. Dewpoints are expected to be low, especially since those twin cold fronts went through, thus no humidity.

I'll keep checking the latest updates in case of any changes. The way I see it, it should move out in time, but low pressure systems can be tricky, particularly this one. We'll have a more definte forecast in the next 2 days, but my prediction remains the same.

Trav.

Yup, it shouldn't rain tomorrow night.

I don't think a manteau would be necessary. I'll just wear two pullovers with a jacket. It would be enough.

Hope to make it!

Yes, we should be fine by tomorrow night, though it will be rather cool throughout the day, so bring something to keep warm. The forecast is calling for a 30% chance of precip, followed by mostly cloudy conditions with an expected high between 18-20C. As usual, the evening temperatures will drop. As I said, low dewpoint values and pretty much low humidity. The coolest day of the week, unfortunately. The evening forecast has yet to be revealed, but it should be an improving scenario, as I've been saying for the past week, but cool.

Enkil, I should be able to make it, only my family keeps saying it will be cold. But at least we have a better chance of it not raining! We'll see what happens. You're going on De Lorimier, right? I'll be there at the usual time, around 8:10-8:15.

Regards,

Trav.

It's getting better

20% chances of rain. with a 18C with 20 km/h NE

Now the only problem is the temperature. Go up! Go up! GO UPP!! lol

Yes, we may get some sunny breaks in there. As long as we have soem solar energy, we should be fine. It could hit 20C. But the evening will still be the problem. It will be absurdly cool. The 20 km winds should be enough to get rid of smoke, too.

This is why I hate when meteorologists say that "this cold front is going to provide relief from all that hot weather, and bring cooler, cleaner and fresher air." I've reflected upon those words and see their idea of "relief." Look outside and tell me if that's relief. Look at tomorrow and tell me if that's relief. The heat and humidity is relief. I know smog is a MAJOR problem as well as the stagnant air mass, but that sure beats this cold! That's why I hate when cold fronts come in. It takes so long for the place to warm up by the time a sector of warm air is expected to comes in.

Trav.

I knew it!!

It's going to 16C tomorrow night.

The temperature won't get any colder tomorrow night cause the temperatures will be raising.

Yes, it will be 16C, but make sure to bring a jacket or something to keep you warm. I'm going to bring a sweater and some jackets, in case.

The winds should be about 20 Km, so that should help clear out the smoke quickly, but it will make the place seem cooler. The airmass is dry, too.

As for tomorrow, we should see improvements in terms of temperatures. Today is the coldest day of the week, well, next to yesterday.

Trav.

Actually, the winds will be 15 km coming from the northeast. Should be more than enough.

Trav.

I didn't bother posting about the weather conditions until about 2 days before the given day since the expected weather conditions change frequently prior to that period.

EXCELLENT hot summer weather conditions will prevail this weekend, starting tonight into tomorrow, and throughout the next week.

The forecast is calling for very hot temperatures. About 30-33 degrees. With the help of the sun, I would estimate an additional 3 degree boost to the initial amount. However, I believe there is a slight chance of isolated showers throughout the day. I suspect that convection will be strong because of the hot, moist and humid airmass. This may cause instability during the day and perhaps the evening, but that's very slight, 30%. Whether or not anything happens, just keep in mind that the ingredients are there and it's favorable to further developments, but not a guarantee, as these storms are very sporadic. Saturday seems to be the only threat, for now.

As for the wind, we'll continue to have a southerly flow bringing moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, courtesy of high pressure. It's still a little hard to say what the actual wind speeds will be at this point in time, as they're variable. I'll have more on this later. In any case, it's going to be the complete opposite of what we've experienced last weekend. Most definitely.

Anyways, BRING ON THE HEAT!!!!!!!!!!!!! Oh yes, make sure you all wear sunscreen!

Trav.

Greetings,

I've received the latest conditions for tomorrow. All I can say, as I was telling Jerome, it that the airmass will be "juicy." This means that there will be high dewpoints and a great capacity for water vapor in the atmosphere. This being said, there will also be a weakened cold front that will come through providing additional convection, but a weak updraft. Don't worry about temperatures cooling down the following day because this is a weak cold front. It won't do anything substantial like major cold fronts do and thus the hot and humid weather will continue throughout the week until I don't know when.

The forecast is calling for a 40% chance of storms in the afternoon, but sizzling hot with highs between 32-35 degrees Celsius, as long as we have solar energy. The winds will be moderate at 20 km coming from the West. It will also be hazy and humid, obviously.

The good news is that we still don't know the evening conditions for tomorrow, but it will probably be the same idea, but with a diminished risk as a result of a loss of daytime heating. Who knows, perhaps it will be calm, but just remember that the air will be convective tomorrow and the ingredients are there to make it favorable to the developments. But remember, they wouldn't necessarily happen since they're very isolated. That's why it has a 40% figure on it. It's hard to tell where and when they can happen, but just remember that conditions are right and the possibility exists.

I'll get an update on the evening forecast later today. In the mean time, perhaps you all have other sources that say otherwise. However, I suspect that they all agree.

Post your updates here.

Regards,

Trav.

Just to update, it's a 30% chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Do you guys have any idea how hot it is tomorrow?

Trav.

As I promised, very hot weather conditions today and the rest of the week until who knows.

However, the threat remains, though slight, but still favorable, particularly this afternoon around 2:00-3:00.P.M and throughout the early evening hours. After that they will die down in the later hours. This is all because of intense humidity and extremely high dewpoints. This means that it's very convective out there. Also, there will be a weakened cold front that will pass through his afternoon that will increase the convection process. The greastest risk at seing severe storms are in southern Quebec and eastern Ontario, but, once again, not a guarantee, as the storms can happen anywhere, not everywhere, and thus a 30% figure is given for this evening and this afternoon. The evening will be a give and take chance. I'll have to keep an eye on the dewpoint and the amount of heat that's retained. But the main threat is this afternoon throughout the early evening.

Just to play it safe, I'm going to bring an umbrella, even if they drop the chance.

In the meantime, enjoy what Summer is all about!

Trav.

Well, I don't know about you guys, but it's raining here along with some rumbles of thunder. Once again, as I said before, because of convective energy and the passage of that weak cold front.

Still, to play it safe, bring an umbrella.

Trav.

There's a lot clouds here. But it hasn't rained. I highly doubt it will rain tonight. But I'll take your advise and bring an umbrella, just in case.

Hey Enkil,

I'll be leaving in about an hour or so. Anyways, yes, the storm just moved out. I know it's a slim chance of anything happening, but then again, it was a slim chance, 30%, of it happening this afternoon and it happened in my area.

I'm not saying it will happen, as I said in my previous posts, but just remember that conditions are favorable for further developments. But, I agree, there's a strong chance that nothing will happen, but don't be surprised if anything does. This is why it's best to play it safe and be prepared, although it's a rather small chance.

I was storm watching today and I wasn't surprised that something happened. I just saw so many cumulus clouds developing just after 2:00 and lots of them were just blossoming.

Other than that, it will be FAR warmer than it ever was last time. It was just terrible for me last week.

Trav.

Hey guys,

We should be fine for Saturday, though much cooler, but at least no rain.

High pressure will dominate this weekend, so it will be more clear with a cooler airmass because of that cold front that's going to pass through tomorrow (Friday) and bring in a fresh and stable airmass by Saturday. Winds will be coming from the SE at about 10 km/h followed by variable cloudiness and an associated 30% probability.

The good news is that this cooler air is temporary, as temperatures willl rebound into the mid to high 20s by Monday and even Sunday. More on this later.

Tomorrow will definitely be unstable since it's going to be hot and humid, but very wet and thundery, perhaps maybe even some heavy to severe thunderstorms can pop up. The potential is there, but no guarantees.

In all, it appears like it's going to be the same scenario like last year's Canada Day. We had one stronf storm in the morning and they kept popping up on and off throughout the day. Same kind of thing this year.

Well, what do you expect, it's Canada Day! It always rains, just like it has for Canadian displays in the competition back in the 90s!

Trav.

This evening should be comfortable with temperatures around 21C. The winds should be light to moderate gusts, but mostly stable at 10 km/h coming from the West.

I was just in downtown earlier today watching the parade on Rene-Levesque and the winds were pretty breezy and do make it feel slightly cooler. If anything, just bring a windbreaker, in case.

In all, not nearly as warm as it was last week, but at least it's still pleasant, unlike the Australian display's weather.

Enjoy the show.

Trav.

Everything looks fine for Saturday, until further notice. It will be rather warm to hot conditions. More details as Saturday gets closer.

Trav.

Guys,

Despite what was excellent conditions from what I said 3 days ago, it appears that tomorrow will be wet, courtesy of the remnants of Cindy. The rain should start sometime overnight while the clouds associated with it are apparent as we speak. The rain should continue to fall all afternoon tomorrow with some decent amount of precipitation followed by an 80% chance. The temperature will be seasonally cooler by at least 4 degrees Celsius, resulting in an expected high of around 23. The winds should be relatively light during the day at 10 km/h, but as in typical low pressure systems, they can be variable and can be gusty at times, but generally, it shouldn't be wild. They'll also be coming from the North and the West.

I've been tracking this system since it hit the southern U.S and it was pretty tricky in the way it was travelling. It was going in a fixed position at an East, Northeast (ENE) fashion for some time, but it started shifting in a more northerly fashion while maintaining an eastward motion. This is why I didn't post the latest conditions. I figured that the storm would stay well South of the border and go over the Northen New England states and hit the southern coastlines of Nova Scotia. If anything, the most I would have suspected would be that it would barely skim Montreal with it's bordering wall clouds in the outer sections, but it was hard to say.

Anyhow, we still have some hope. We don't know the evening forecast just yet and still I feel that this system is still skimming us, just with rain fall. And judging from it starting overnight tonight, chances are that it will move out by the evening hours, hopefully. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if they change the conditions from straight light rain to scattered showers and thus a 40% chance. According to some maps, it's still hard to tell on even some of the later models.

I'm still not exactly sure on the speed of the system. I'll work on that. In the meantime, if anyone knows its speed, you could tell me. It will help me make an assumption of when it could leave.

It's rather amusing, though frustrating at the same time. From Sunday onward it's going to be hot. Prior to Saturday it was relatively dry and pleasant, despite that big thunderstorm that gave torrential rains and flooding back on Tuesday.

Regards,

Trav.

Smoke,

It just changed to 60%

I don't think we should take it very seriously.

If you take a look at this satellite image, you can clearly see that the system isn't big. But it's moving slow!
http://edition.cnn.com/WEATHER/NAmerica/sat.anim.html

And notice it says "Près de 5 mm". That's nothing big.

Well, I predicte that it will be clear with a few clouds, but it will warm and a bit humid as the temperature rises.

Enkil,

Yes, I just saw the update. It is, indeed, 60%, though it is slighly higher tonight and tomorrow morning. But yes, 5 mm is nothing too big, but if we get steadier rain at any given time, I would put a 5-10 mm figure on that, though that's still not significant.

The satellite image link from CNN is comprehensive enough to see the dynamics of the storm, but it has less detail since it's on smaller scale. I've also checked with other models and you can see that classical counter-clockwise spin. It seems well defined, too. Though it isn't such a big system, it isn't small either and it does, indeed, seem to be moving slow, for the moment. Given it's size and speed, it's still hard to speculate, but I suspect that even if it clear out by the evening hours, we could still expect, possibly some lingering sporadic showers. In essence, the slower it moves, the longer it will "feel" for it to leave.

But, I agree with you. I'm also staying with my earlier prediction and saying that it could still clear out, like you said, but it could also remain overcast, but no rain. That's usually how it works with these kinds of systems.

Anyhow, it's best if we wait for the evening forecast, which should be released in a few hours.

Regards,

Trav.

Well, I got an update for tomorrow evening. It appears my prediction was right. It will be maily cloudy cloudy with a 30% chance of precip. The winds should be good enough to blow smoke away. As I also predicted, the perciptation amounts have changed to 5-10 mm. Also, the temperature has dropped to about 21 and should stay there during the evening, so it should be sustainable and pleasant.

But don't rule out the chance of rain just yet. More updates as we get closer.

This is good news, in any case.

Regards,

Trav.