Greetings,

As most of you should and already know, the fireworks competition is heavily reliant on the weather, so it's good to know the latest conditions.

If any of you hear or know any new updates, you can post them here. So far, it's looking fine.

Regards,

Trav.

Saturday looks ideal:

http://www.weather.com/activities/travel/businesstraveler/weather/tend ay.html?locid=CAXX0301&from=search_10day[url=][/url]

The remnants of Arlene, the first low pressure system, should be here by tonight and stay throughout tomorrow and maybe persisting into some of Wednesday. Tempreatures will cool off somewhat, but it will still be fairly humid. We will get some descent amounts of rain with some thunderstorm activity, possibly.

However, the second low pressure system will be what changes everything. By the time the first exits, it wouldn't be too long before #2 gets in. This should bring us additional rain till Friday and continue to drop temperatures to the low to mid 20s, as I very well predicted 2 days ago. So far, it appears that Saturday will be spared the onslaught, for now, which is good news. Assuming this low pressure system takes more time to move, it should be gone by the end of Friday, or even Thursday, and thus leaving Saturday with mainly cloudy conditions, and maybe some isolated showers, with a 30% probability of precipitation.

All that said, it will be nowhere near as hot as we've experienced since June started, sorry to say. The expected temperature is 22 Celsius, which is far better than the exagerated temperature predicted before. I knew that couldn't be right. Now, the only thing we need to keep an eye on is on how long this low will stick around. Most likely we should be okay, but remember that this is a slow moving low, so persistency can be a problem. Lets wait and see what happens.

As for today, just remember that today is the last hot, humid and sticky day, so enjoy. What I really hate is when the meteorologists say that the low pressure systems will provide "relief" for southern Ontario and southern Quebec bringing fresh and cooler air. I hate that! That's not relief. This heat IS relief to me. I know many people suffer from smog and have asthma with other related problems, like heat stroke and fast dehydration because of high dewpoints, but considering what we went through in May and prior to that, we need these conditions as a reward. Also, the meteorologists fail to realize that it usually takes time before we can ever see such hot weather again, even during the summer. Sometimes we have to wait 1-2 weeks before something can happen and then a typical cold front would come through and ruin everything. Losing a month like May means that every other day needs to count. We're already almost half way through June, but this has been excellent, so far.

Despite that, Saturday is looking reasonable until further notice. The rest of the work week seems mostly wet. Enjoy the heat today, because sadly, it's coming to an end.

Regards,

Trav.

22 C is not enough. It's going to be very cold at night. I'll prolly end up going.

Do you remember last year's Pirotècnia Igual? It's was on June 19. I remember it was very cold, I was really freezing.. Do you remember the temperture?

Honestly, I'm glad that there's a cold front coming cause I have huge final exams this week and next week.
I won't be "dragged" into the summer feeling lol

Actually, it's going to be less than 22C now. The forecasted high is 16C for Saturday. Regardless if that changes, it wouldn't be substantial. In any case, it will be much cooler, thanks to that secondary cold front I spoke of a few days ago. In fact, the way that low was moving and its volume, I was so sure it would cool down things by Thursday onwards while it dumps rain. With it, there are a series of cold fronts which will push out the warm air by late Wednesday.

Also, Saturday, we may see some scattered showers along with a 40% chance. With a high of 16C, you'll need a jacket that evening. As you said, Pirotechnia Igual was really cold last year. I remember it perfectly when I had that jacket on. This year, it seems we'll get off to a similar start this year, unfortunately, despite what we've been experiencing in the past. Lets hope the rain will let off, at least. With the persistency of the second low pressure system, it's possible to witness some lingering showers, but chances are it can end by Friday.

Regards,

Trav.

Well, I got another update. It appears it will be cloudy with showers on Saturday with a 60% chance, but I suspect this prediction is a give and take type of scenario, as the second low pressure system is somewhat unpredictable in movement, but it is quite large, according to satellite imagery. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if it did change again.

However, even if it does indeed rain that day, we still have a chance at the evening forecast. Chances are the system will have moved out by then. In general, I suspect that whole low should be out of here by Friday-Saturday. But you can't rule out the chance of rains on Saturday, regardless.

As you can see outside, it is raining. This is because of the remnants of Arlene, which is now a regular area of low pressure, as I explained in the other thread. The second low pressure system, following this one, will be the bigger one that will cool off the place some more and bring more rainfall. We could get some sunny breaks in between, if we're lucky, but it looks mostly wet until Friday into Saturday, possibly.

All in all, it's still tough to say what will happen, despite what the forecast is telling me.

Regards,

Trav.

aujourd'hui j'ai écouté météo média et il ont expliqué qu'il ferait
16 degré celcius avec quelque passage nuageux.et avec 40%
de chance de précipitation.la température seras froide mais je croit
que ca feras du bien d'avoir froid après les hautes température qu'il a fait la semaine passé.mais pour les frilleux...porter un petit
manteaux.

It appears Saturday can be a give or take kind of day, but you'll definitely need your jacket in the evening. We're still expecting scattered showers, not straight rain, with a 40% chance followed by a high of 21C, but we still have a go on the evening forecast. It will actually be the coolest day of the week.

This forecast seems to be changing everyday, but you can get the indication that the threat of rain is there, but the information that we need is when the best chance of rain is during the day. I'm still working on that.

I was hoping the weather would cooperate more with some warmer temperatures, but it appears we're getting off to a similar start to last year's first-2nd show, although it appears that Monday and onwards is getting back on the hot side again, for now.

The crew members for Saturday were probably having a difficult time setting up the display, especially yesterday and today. I feel bad for them, especially since they're the first ones going.

Regards,

Trav.

Here's some good news. For some reason, since my first prediction, I figured that the second low pressure system will move out by Saturday. Most likely, it will, according to some satellite imagery. It will be persistent throughout today and all day tomorrow, but we can expect improving conditions by Saturday. From the same system, we may get some isolated showers during the day with a 30% probability, but that doesn't mean anything for the evening. Even if the wholw thing is going to take its time to move out on Saturday, it should be well out of the area by the evening hours. However, it will be best if you bring a sweater or a thin jacket, as the night will get much cooler since the expected high is about 21C. Dewpoints are expected to be low, especially since those twin cold fronts went through, thus no humidity.

I'll keep checking the latest updates in case of any changes. The way I see it, it should move out in time, but low pressure systems can be tricky, particularly this one. We'll have a more definte forecast in the next 2 days, but my prediction remains the same.

Trav.

Yup, it shouldn't rain tomorrow night.

I don't think a manteau would be necessary. I'll just wear two pullovers with a jacket. It would be enough.

Hope to make it!

Yes, we should be fine by tomorrow night, though it will be rather cool throughout the day, so bring something to keep warm. The forecast is calling for a 30% chance of precip, followed by mostly cloudy conditions with an expected high between 18-20C. As usual, the evening temperatures will drop. As I said, low dewpoint values and pretty much low humidity. The coolest day of the week, unfortunately. The evening forecast has yet to be revealed, but it should be an improving scenario, as I've been saying for the past week, but cool.

Enkil, I should be able to make it, only my family keeps saying it will be cold. But at least we have a better chance of it not raining! We'll see what happens. You're going on De Lorimier, right? I'll be there at the usual time, around 8:10-8:15.

Regards,

Trav.

It's getting better

20% chances of rain. with a 18C with 20 km/h NE

Now the only problem is the temperature. Go up! Go up! GO UPP!! lol

Yes, we may get some sunny breaks in there. As long as we have soem solar energy, we should be fine. It could hit 20C. But the evening will still be the problem. It will be absurdly cool. The 20 km winds should be enough to get rid of smoke, too.

This is why I hate when meteorologists say that "this cold front is going to provide relief from all that hot weather, and bring cooler, cleaner and fresher air." I've reflected upon those words and see their idea of "relief." Look outside and tell me if that's relief. Look at tomorrow and tell me if that's relief. The heat and humidity is relief. I know smog is a MAJOR problem as well as the stagnant air mass, but that sure beats this cold! That's why I hate when cold fronts come in. It takes so long for the place to warm up by the time a sector of warm air is expected to comes in.

Trav.

I knew it!!

It's going to 16C tomorrow night.

The temperature won't get any colder tomorrow night cause the temperatures will be raising.

Yes, it will be 16C, but make sure to bring a jacket or something to keep you warm. I'm going to bring a sweater and some jackets, in case.

The winds should be about 20 Km, so that should help clear out the smoke quickly, but it will make the place seem cooler. The airmass is dry, too.

As for tomorrow, we should see improvements in terms of temperatures. Today is the coldest day of the week, well, next to yesterday.

Trav.