Hey guys,

Well, we're getting the expected rain for this afternoon. I was pretty certain that we would get above 5 mm, like they proposed. I believe we have more than that already.

Anyways, it must be difficult for the crew to finish up things on a day like today. I sincerely hope that they'll manage.

The temperature this evening will be constant at 20-21C with some humidity, so it shouldn't be that bad. The winds should still be fairly light coming from the NW at 10 km/h with odd gusts at times, but no big deal. As I said before, it should be mainly cloudy, but with some clear breaks with a 30% chance of precipitation.

Just to play it safe, bring as umbrella, as lingering showers are still possible.

Finally, I'm sort of concerned about Spain on Wednesday because the remnants of Dennis will probably be here. Still a little early to confim that, though, but it will take a similar path like Cindy did.

I'll have more on this in a few days.

Regards,

Trav.

The weather should be lenient for Wednesday. Dennis is showing signs of major slowing down! About 5 mph, last check. This is also shown in satellite imagery. But, lets not get too cocky.

We should be fine, until further notice. It will be rather hot, too. Probably about 30 or more degrees.

More details tomorrow.

Regards,

Trav.

So finally there's good news and bad news.

Tomorrow night: 40% chances of rain

This is because Dennis is coming. But Dennis has expand so much that we can hardly call it a system. Its clouds are everywhere in Eastern US. Perhaps, this is why the chances of rain is 40%.

At 10:00pm, we will either get rain or a clear sky. The system is so destabilized that I can't make any prediction right now.

Tomorrow, I'll make a one by looking the latest satellite image.

Sorry for the late reply on the details, but it looks like Enkil has covered most of the scenario, but there are some changes.

Apparently, there may be many threats of weak to potent thunderstorms throughout tomorrow starting from the morning hours. This is NOT a guaranteed chance, but rather a a risk to a chance ranging to the usual values, 30-40%. However, we seem to have a "potential" problem for tomorrow evening. This is when, for the moment, the greatest chance exists, which is at 80%, so thus they'll be nocturnal since it's in the evening, if it happens.

The winds should be light in nature ranging from 10-15 km/h. I predict gusts will be anywhere from 20-25 km/h. However, remember that if thunderstorms occur, winds do, indeed, pick up, especially if they are heavy. They will be coming from the south and west, so you can see the the southerly flow drawing in all this moisture and humidity from the Gulf.

The temperature will be absurdly HOT. Maybe even moreso than that of what we've expereinced during France's display. Humidex values will be past 40 tomorrow afternoon and since heat will be retained exponentially tomorrow night, we will have an expected humidex of 38 Celsius. Truly incredible. I'm sure that Environment
Canada will issue humidex advisories tomorrow. As a result, dewpoints will be very high tomorrow and allow great capacities of water vapor content. With humdex values that high, there's going to be a high saturation point. Our expected high is anywhere from 32-35 C. Excellent, but gives way to favorable conditions.

Now, as Enkil clearly said, this is associated with Dennis, but NOT the system directly. It's mostly to do with typical convection that will give way to these potential storms. The atmosphere will definitely be unstable tomorrow, especially since the sun will be strong already in the morning. Now, Dennis is no longer organized and isn't even considered that type of low pressure system, but it is still an area of low pressure and the same idea applies, especially since the air is going to be humid.

Since it is still a relatively slow moving system, it still is hard to make speculations, but judging that we'll get potential rains on Thursday, we will most likely be more inside the system. Tomorrow night's conditions will be both because of convection and the approaching low.

On the bright side, they usually tend to fluctuate the percentages with the probability of precipitation. However, we must be prepared for anything and, once again, I'm just saying that conditions are FAVORABLE to the developments of thunderstorms, some of which can be severe, but not a guarantee.

In the meantime, I will also be checking with updated satellite imagery, but this is besides the point. As long as we have a hot and humid airmass, you can expect anything. It's going to be "juicy."

Just to note about the chance of precip. When they say "40%" or "30%" or whatever, it doesn't mean that everywhere will see a storm. It means that in any given random location in the forecast area could or will see it, depending on the situation. Just a reminder since these percentage figures are often confused in the wrong sense.

I'll be on the lookout all day tomorrow. It's hard to make predictions, as anything can happen, but I will monitor satellite imagery, as I said, as make a conclusion. I'll also report all the latest conditions. Just be aware till then. It's just one of those days.

Enkil, you might also want to check for rapid cell formation in surrounding areas.

Regards,

Trav.

Actually, just to correct my previous post, this has barely anything to do with Dennis, but it does play a part in today's potential volatile weather. The disorganized low is drawing in warm moist air, so this will provide some fuel. The heat and humidity will also be a factor. This will be all because of intense convection and heavy moisture.

Still, the forecast remains the same at an 80% chance of thunderstorms this evening in any given area. I predict that they will drop this percentage to about 60% throughout the day, but then again, I don't blame them for keeping it that high.

Once again, thunderstorms are very sporadic. It's not like a typical rainy day where you get all day rains ranging from light to moderate. Thunderstorms, however, are a scenario of, regardless of how high or low the chances are, dictating whether you get it or you don't. They are very hard to predict when and where they will pop up.

All I can say is to bring an umbrella, once again, to play it safe. Do not ignore the conditions, especially on a day like this. We already got some rain this morning, well, at least in my area.

Trav.

Well, my prediction was correct. They have dropped the chance dramatically by cutting it by 1/2.

We are now at a 40%. Every other meteorologic factors are constant. Very similar to that of France's weather, but with a higher risk of storms.

Once again, have your umbrella handy, just in case of possible developments all day today.

Trav.

Nothing much has changed. Once again, bring an umbrella.

Otherwise, enjoy Spain.

Regards,

Trav.

Hey guys,

We sould have hot and humid conditions tomorrow, once again. I believe this could be a record breaking July!

As usual, however, convection will be an issue tomorrow, but at a minimal chance in the afternoon to early evening (30%) and then losing intensity with the loss of daytime heating.

The winds should be light at about 10-15 km/h and mainly coming from the South and East. Temperatures should be anywhere from 32-35C! With the humidity and high dewpoints, it should feel like the low 40s.

In all, we should have a pleasant and rather hot summer evening.....until further notice.

Regards,

Trav.

We should be fine tonight.

It will be rather warm at 28-30C, while humidity will make it feel like 36C.

It's very hot out there. Just think of it like what we experienced during France and Spain.

Trav.

Hold on a sec...

I just got a new update. Everything is still constant, but there's a 40% chance of showers or even isolated thunderstorms. Overnight, however, we'll probably see, more likely, thundershower activity.

I'll be on the lookout, once again! And bring an umbrella, just in case. I sincerely hope that it doesn't rain for this newcomer.

Regards,

Trav.

Excellent weather conditions for tomorrow with no threats, for once. We should hit about 29C. The evening should be clear, but with much less humidity that we've been experiencing.

The evening temperature will be about 24-26, but it will feel like close to 30.

This is all courtesy of the twin cold fronts that brought in drier air, but not the high temperatures, which is rather rare. The humidity will be a less and moisture will be of lower content, so no major cloud formations and thus clearer skies. However, winds will be rather light at 5 km/h coming from the SW. But this should be ok, since humidity won't be stagnant, but keep in mind that there still is.

If they're any new updates, I'll post them here.

Pierre, this should be more comfortable for you, as well as you, Paul. But me, I like it the way it was last time! I love that "uncomfortableness."

Trav.

Excellent weather, once again for this show! Temperatures should be around 21C because of the drier and much cooler airmass. The winds should be a bit breezy coming from the NW at about 15km/h. Though tonight will be a lot cooler! Going to almost 13! Jeeze, I hate cold fronts!!!! Now you see why I want this hot stuff to stay, but at least it will return by late tomorrow!

Well, enjoy Canada! And no rain forecasted for them!

Regards,

Trav.

Despite what we're experiencing out there right now is only temporary. Once again, we should be fine by this evening with a 10% chance of precip along with some cloudy periods. Winds should be from the West at about 10 km/h to 15 km/h.

Though it will be on the cool side at 19C this evening, we are once again spared by the weather. It looks the same for Panzera, too. Another "potentially" perfect record weather year, except for the problems from Arlene and other subsequent storms that made trouble for Australia in mid June.

If you must know what's causing the rain today, well, it has nothing to do with low pressure, but it's just that cold front coming through slicing into that humid airmass and causing some remaining instability and thus rain. Not enough lift to preduce storms, however. The second cold front should be here by mid day tomorrow bringing with it cooler and drier air, obviously. This will be the scenario for the next little while.

Regards,

Trav.

Hey guys,

Well.............................last weather report for this year.

For the Pyjama fireworks display this evening, we can expect cooler conditions. The temperature will be similar to that of Australia's night. It was about 16C that night. This evening will be about 17C with clear skies, since we're under the influence of high pressure, which should stay constant for the next few days. So don't worry about rain. Our high today is 21C, which is the coolest this week. Winds will be light at 10-15 km/h maximum. They will also be coming from the North, which will bring in cooler air. Also, since the skies will be mainly clear, that will allow heat to escape more rapidly into the atmosphere, so it will create a cooling effect. In fact, the overnight low is barely 10C!

In all, bring a light sweater, especially since you'll all be close to the water or a body of water. That usually provides a light breeze that tends to make things feel slightly cooler.

However, some improvements in warmth for the next few days.

Well, that's it for the weather for this year's season.......................

Trav.

oh my god is frezzing fireworks night but the skie is clear is the best

jérome

Hey Jerome,

Yes, clear skies are a nice thing to have, but not when the air is dry, like it is today. When that happens and the sky is clear, you'll have that rapid radiational cooling of the ground effect at night.

Trav.

unfortunately I would not then have a coat I risk I cold. but I then likes too firework I will go there out of tee-shirt !

jérome.

Jerome,

It won't be that cold! You could just wear a light sweater. That should keep you warm enough, especially if you're going to be by the water. The temperature will be about 17C, but could be about 15C by the water.

Trav.

I dont have a ligh sweater just a bunch of tee-shirt all my cloth is at my mother home

Well, it shouldn't be so bad. It's not like it's below freezing! You remember Australia's temperature, right? Well, it will be similar to that!

Trav.

ah ok BOF I had found that the temperature was not too terrible at the time of the fireworks Australia

Ok then, so it shouldn't be so bad, but still on the cool side.

However, once you're in the city, it's always warmer for obvious reasons.

Regards,

Trav.

Jérome,

The best thing you can do is wear 2 tee-shirts, that's what I do. It helps a lot. It'd be better if you had a sweater.

Smoke,

Please come!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

thank enkil is a good idea but it is necessary just that its does not appear

jérome.

Jerome,

As Enkil said, your best bet is to put on 2 t-shirts, so this way you'll create a double layer of insulation. But, the cold won't be that dramatic. I would have been more concerned if the temperature was like it is for the overnight value!

Enkil,

You still have that time machine? I hope I'll be able to go, but I believe my chance of going is equivalent to the chance of rain happening this evening!

Trav.

yes but its is likely not to be useful has grans thing because I bicycle I with 2 tee-shirt will sweat makes

Oh yes, I forgot, you will be biking there.

But, chances are that you will be sweating a little by the time you get there. Also, you're body will generate a lot of heat, so you'll welcome the cooler conditions! But, as your body stabalizes, you'll start to adapt to the exterior temperature, so that's when you'll put on your double t-shirt. Obviously, you're not going to ride with both t-shirts on! Only when you start to feel cold.

Also, you might want to bring some water judging your distance. Better stay hydrated!

Trav.

yes I would forget absolutely anything. but usually I never bring water I am never thirsty. but I does not take to chance I bring 2 quill of Coke

Well, as long as you have some kind of fluid!

But coke will make you thirsty.

Trav.

yes of course