A warm Summer is possible for much of Eastern Canada this year (more information below).

Summer is once again fast approaching the Northern hemisphere and I’ve been getting fired with questions relating to what is to be expected. For those of you who recall my prediction for Spring-Summer 2010 stated at the end of March and previously in between on several occasions dating back to since I created the weather thread for 2009, I predicted a possible overall warm Spring-Summer period this year. As it turns out, all of the Spring months, so far, have well exceeded the norm in terms of temperatures, including a record-breaking March and April. With respect to May, apart from the unseasonably cool second week, the month was absolutely stellar, including a blast of July-like weather seen during this last week. May 2010 turned out to be the third warmest May in recorded history next to May 1998 and 1999 with some of the hottest temperatures not heard of for nearly 50 years for the month (i.e., yesterday, the 26th, attaining almost 35 C while next door into Cornwall and Ottawa registering values closer to 36 C). Similarly, I successfully predicted the patterns exhibited by this past Winter beforehand in terms of being mild and snow-deprived, although I never anticipated that it would be as warm as it was. If you’re interested, for additional information and corresponding tabulated statistics, please refer to the link below for a closer examination of the late Fall-Winter months described through the 3rd, 4th and the last part of the 5th post (note that some figures were later corrected).

http://www.montreal-fireworks.com/forum/index.php?action=vthread&forum =5&topic=873&page=2

Summer 2010 outlook

Temperature

The El Nino present since July of 2009 was at the forefront of my assessments and predictions. To briefly reiterate my last analysis from March with respect to this Summer, though El Nino has been dwindling since February, I suspect that its influence, along with near-neutral conditions, will continue to linger on into the Summer months before the equatorial Pacific completely reaches a neutral state (no El Nino or La Nina signals) by September. As such, I believe that this Summer will continue on the same track left behind by the Spring months, and therefore being an above normal one in terms of temperatures. The models from the National Weather Service (affiliated with NOAA), The Weather Network and Environment Canada are practically in agreement with these predictions. Bare in mind, however, that this does not necessarily imply that every single day of the Summer will in fact be very warm/hot and humid, but rather that the general trend will be above normal with more episodes of very warm to hot weather breaching into Eastern Canada – quite the contrast from the last two years.

Precipitation

Precipitation patterns are a little tricky to forecast, especially with the variability expressed by the previous months – that is, April being above normal in precipitation, while May displaying opposing results. However, with a warmer and possibly moister Summer, it is with a fair likelihood that convection currents would be more pronounced, particularly in Eastern Canada – this would allow for increased available energy for convective rains and thunderstorms, and so we could see heightened thunderstorm activity this Summer, a few of which could reach severe limits, much like those that erupted yesterday evening, the 26th of May (notice that we were off to an early start to storms this year, with the first occurring on the evening of April 6th). With this in mind, it is certainly possible to see near normal to perhaps slightly above normal precipitation patterns in some areas of both Ontario and Quebec due to the stochastic nature of thunderstorms. If the jet stream continues to keep systems South of the border, then this would conversely result in below normal precipitation amounts. Further South, I believe that hurricane activity will return to normal as compared to the below normal activity of last year (due to El Nino). Severe weather has been frequent in the U.S so far this year, even for tornado season standards.

EDIT: Interesting to note is that the daytime high of 34.7 C attained yesterday (the 26th of May) in Montreal is the hottest temperature ever measured for the city in recorded history for the month of May.
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With respect to the fireworks displays of 2010, weather reports will be posted roughly two days in advance of each display with subsequent updates to follow up, if necessary. I will keep the forecasts condensed and simplified where applicable, though a little more detail may be required if or when the atmosphere is demonstrating instability on fireworks days. You are also more than welcome to post updates, but be sure to pay particular attention to wind speed/direction, temperature, humidity (dewpoint/moisture) and the threat of precipitation, if any. I know that wind and unsettled conditions were the backdrop for a fair number of last year’s competitors, but I do hope for ideally beautiful Summer nights for all of the 2010 entrants.

Trav.

Following an overall cool and wet start to June for much of Canada, the weather patterns are starting to adjust to more Summer-like standards for this coming week, baring a closer resemblance to what was seen for the last two weeks of May with the exception of more unstable conditions. With the jet stream being zonal/latitudinal for the first week of June, temperatures were fairly uniform (being mostly below seasonal) across Canada while a train of systems developed and were able to quickly travel across the country, resulting in persistent rains and one incident of severe weather just West of here on the 5th (an EF1 tornado spawned near the Ontario-Quebec border that afternoon).

As a nice ridge is building in for this weekend in both Ontario and Quebec, temperatures will, consequently, be rising back to seasonal to slightly above seasonal standards with a boost in humidity levels. However, because of the area of low pressure advancing from the Southwest (which is generating the ridge), this will invite the chance for some instability tomorrow (Saturday) afternoon into the evening-overnight hours along the Northern flanks of the warm front. With the air a little more rich in moisture, the chance exists for isolated pockets of convective showers and thunderstorms (heavy to severe thunderstorms mostly concentrated in Southern Ontario) during the late afternoon-evening period Saturday and running into most of Sunday. As far as highs go, mid 20's Celsius are certainly possible for the weekend while feeling like the high 20's to very low 30's with the humidity factored in. Saturday evening hovering around 17-18 C.

Winds should predominantly be light in nature during the afternoon-evening period Saturday and should not be exceeding 12 km/h at this time. Wind direction, however, may pose a problem for those stationed on the Western banks of the St-Lawrence River (Notre-Dame steet, the Western parts of the bridge and possibly the Old Port) due to the possible Easterly to Northeasterly wind tendency later in the day.

That's the way the weather should generally behave. I will continue to monitor the system's trajectory (especially in terms of wind speed/direction and precipitation tendency) and provide an update later this evening to finalize everything.

Trav.

Many thanks, Trav, to report your analyses again this year. Your posts are really useful, providing us with first hand information for the specific conditions of the event. Though they may be a bit too detailed and technical for some people, I like to read all details because weather forecast, despite the simplicity of icons often used by the media, are made of complex models and statistic methods and can't always produce a clear-cut forecast. The www.montreal-fireworks.com community is really priviledged to have its in-house meteorologist!

Fred

After monitoring the various weather model outputs as they came in today, most of what I stated in my previous post still holds truthful.

Because the system is maintained mostly to our South, humidity levels will not be as oppressive as in Southern and Southwestern Ontario for tomorrow (Saturday). Nevertheless, much like today (Friday), humidity values in Southern Quebec will continue on in the moderate-high range for tomorrow due to a steady Southerly flow. As such, with the warm front just to our South, this will generate mostly overcasted conditions for a good portion of the day into the evening with sporadic embedded showers - there is not sufficient instability and energy for strong thunderstorms to develop, but enough for some scattered showers.

As for the winds, there is variability between the East-Southeast (ESE) and East-Northeast (ENE) - this may, at times, be problematic for those on Notre-Dame, though more so for the sections of the street situated farther away from the bridge going North. Winds are also quite light in nature and may sometimes not be enough to blow the smoke quickly away (considering the humidity levels) when the display becomes more active.

Putting it together, Saturday evening's weather for Italy's performance should be mostly cloudy with the slight chance for some embedded showers (30-40%). Temperatures again hovering around 17-18 C (closer to 24-25 C during the day, depending on how much sun is present) and moderate-high humidity will make it feel a little muggy. Winds light at typically 7-8 km/h and variable between ESE and ENE, though the tendency seems more to the SE (Southeast) and ESE.
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Hi Fred,

because weather forecast, despite the simplicity of icons often used by the media, are made of complex models and statistic methods and can't always produce a clear-cut forecast.

That's exactly it. Though the computer models are essential for creating short and long term forecasts, they do not provide a concise picture of the true atmosphere. Because the models, as complex as they are, cannot interpret the realistically chaotic nature of the atmosphere, they are instead bound to several key assumptions - the models, then, idealize atmospheric conditions with time, making them subject to errors when things change suddenly in reality. Consequently, the farther you advance into the future, small errors in the short term can lead to larger ones over the longer term, which is sometimes the main reason behind long term forecasts, such as a week or more ahead, being much less reliable than, say, a few hours from now - at best, long term forecasts should serve as a general idea of what could be expected by whatever period in time. In the end, a weather "forecast" is nothing more than a prediction, and though it is correct most of the time, it never comes with 100% accuracy.

You're very welcome, and thank you for your kind comment. It will be a pleasure posting weather analyses once again this year.

Edit: I hope that everyone will be taken away by Italy's display.

Edit 2: It looks like the mostly cloudy conditions will slowly break later this afternoon into the evening with a few lingering cloudy periods - the clearing will briefly boost the temperature a little this afternoon from what they are currently (1:30 p.m). Everything else holds constant.

Trav.

As mentioned above, my only real concern is the possible lack of sufficient wind speeds this evening. Smoke obstructions would be more of an issue for those on Notre-Dame (sections farther away from the bridge mostly) due to direction, but with the borderline moderate-high humidity present, smoke buildup may be a problem for many viewers due to very light winds.

Trav.

Consistent Summer weather has returned. as expected. to Eastern Canada and is to stick around for some time. The changing patterns can be attributed to corresponding changes in the polar jet stream.

As a vigorous low pressure system advances Eastward into Ontario and Quebec for this weekend, a more Southerly flow will begin to emerge, causing a surge of heat and humidity to circulate from the Gulf of Mexico today (Friday) and particularly through to Saturday. As is the case with a hot and humid atmosphere, however, convective showers and thunderstorms are possible late day Saturday into early Sunday because of an increasingly buoyant airmass and principally due to the passage of a relatively strong cold front.

Running some of the latest models, most of these thunderstorms are non-severe in nature, but the possibility is there for some isolated severe cells to erupt late day Saturday in the later afternoon-early evening hours, especially taking into account that this front has had a history of producing severe weather. Temperatures Saturday evening are very likely in the mid 20s Celsius with high humidity (potentially very high - dewpoints 20 C or higher), making it feel into the low 30s C. Humidex values are closer to 40 C (highs quite possibly into the low 30s C) during the day, which could generate a humidity advisory (morning temperatures already into the low 20s C with moderate humidity). Skies will likely be partly cloudy in the evening with, again, the risk of thunderstorms. In the context of smoke, despite the humidity, I do not think rapid smoke accumulations will be a problem as winds are breezy at 17-21 km/h while coming from the South-Southwest (SSW) - SSW being an ideal direction since no major vantage point has to contend with smoke blowing towards them. With SSW winds, this means that smoke will be blowing mostly to the right of viewers stationed at La Ronde (left for those on De Lorimier/Notre-Dame).

I'll provide an update later on today or early Saturday once I receive newer model runs to work with. Rest assured that most of the day Saturday will in fact be nice, but it's the late afternoon-evening that I'd like to continue to monitor. Though storms are possible, I want to remind you that not everywhere will in fact see showers and storms, but rather that the risk is there for areas of Southern and Eastern Ontario as well as Southern Quebec during that time. With the isolated nature of the thunderstorms and showers, the chance is 40%. I also want to keep tabs on wind direction as a more Southwesterly tendency could blow the smoke to the extreme right end of the audience at La Ronde.

In the meantime, the UV index is high for both today and Saturday, so be sure to adequately protect yourself if you are expected to spend prolonged time outdoors.

Other than that, enjoy the upcoming weather.
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I thought it would be useful to provide a small table in helping to read dewpoint (moisture/humidity) values, in case you wanted to know:

Dewpoint of 11 C or lower: low humidity
Dewpoint of 12-15 C: moderate humidity (the case for Italy's performance)
Dewpoint of 16-19 C: high humidity
Dewpoint of 20+ C: very high humidity

Trav.

In accordance to the previous weather post, the newer model outputs from yesterday (Friday) do not deviate significantly from my analysis above. As such, I will post a recap of this evening's weather by extracting the key elements from the last message while providing some additional information where applicable.

Temperature/Humidity

Temperatures during this evening are likely into the mid 20s Celsius (as much as 27 C in the early evening to 24-25 C later on), while the high humidity will make it feel into the low 30s C. Even during the overnight hours, I doubt temperatures will drop below 20 C. Dewpoints (humidity) are also in the high range during the day itself (potentially very high), so humidex values are likely to be close to the 40 C threshold (not quite enough for a humidity advisory). Sticky.

Precipitation

With the contributing strong cold front that I spoke of earlier, it will be largely responsible for the isolated convective showers and thunderstorms erupting during the late afternoon-early evening period. As is common with cold fronts, bands of showers and thunderstorms (squall line storms) could very well form as well out ahead of the front. Through the course of the mid-late afternoon, daytime heating showers are possible, but as the cold front presses East to Northeastward later on in the afternoon, thunderstorms become increasingly possible. Chance for showers and storms is generally 40%, but I would raise the figure to at least 60-70% during the evening and early overnight period - surface air and air aloft are nearly saturated during the evening.

Please note, again, that some thunderstorms along and ahead of this cold front could be attaining severe limits in both Ontario and Southern Quebec - the reason being that there is a large amount of convective available potential energy ahead of the front and fairly good atmospheric instability during the late afternoon-early evening, as shown in various model runs. Daytime heating is also typically at its maximum during this timeframe. The threat of severe weather diminishes as we head into the overnight hours.

Wind

Winds are very likely from the SW to SSW, so smoke will be predominantly pushing towards the right for viewers at La Ronde (to the left for those on De Lorimier/Notre-Dame). Occasionally, however, there may be slight tilts from the SW, so smoke could sometimes blow towards the extreme right end of the La Ronde audience. Note that winds will be quite gusty for most of the afternoon with gusts reaching close to 45-50 km/h at times (sustained between 24-29 km/h). Winds should be settling by the evening, but nevertheless still breezy in the specified range above (17-21 km/h).
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Once more, the risk of showers and thunderstorms does not necessarily imply that we will indeed see unsettled conditions during the afternoon-evening hours, but rather that the "risk" is there for showers and storms due to a very unstable atmosphere - such is to be expected when weather becomes tropical-like. It's difficult to say what exactly will happen at 10-10:30 p.m, or for any specific time window for that matter, but I can safely say the risk is there for showers and storms. Best thing to do is to equipt yourselves with umbrellas.

That's the way the weather should generally behave this evening. With luck, the rain will hold off for the fireworks. Once that cold front clashes with the hot and moist airmass ahead of it, you will notice the temperatures gradually dropping (not too much) for Sunday (Father's Day) with lower humidity, although higher humidity values will pay a visit again during the work week.

I will be vigilant with radar and satellite imagery through the day.

***EDIT: In the event that severe weather threatens (I'm not saying that it will indeed occur, but if it does), I would then strongly advise seeking shelter immediately.

Trav.

With respect to tomorrow's weather (Saturday, the 26th of June), I'm picking up another area of low pressure developing towards the Southwest later tonight and pushing Northeast through the day Saturday. As such, this system will be bringing on a wave of instability to Ontario and Quebec, though conditions are not exactly favorable for thunderstorms to develop this time around. What is happening is that the polar jet stream has once again recently taken on a more zonal pattern, and this is permitting a train of systems to form and quickly move through much of the country over the coming week.

Temperatures for Saturday evening are on the cool side into the high teens (likely 17-18 C) with light winds (potentially very light) and moderate humidity. Models are demonstrating variable wind direction (usually the case when they are light in nature), but I will continue to monitor this as the current tendency is West-Southwest (WSW). I do not think the rains will be persistent through the day and there is the possibility for some partial clearing in the evening hours. Daytime highs in the low 20s C.

I'll provide a final update later this evening to confirm these conditions as I get newer model runs to work with.

Trav.

After assessing the newer model simulations, the weather conditions stated in my previous post still stands firmly for this evening. To provide an overview, here is what to generally expect.

Temperature/Humidity

Temperatures during the day should reach an unseasonably cool high of 22-23 C, though this would be attained later in the afternoon with the appearance of the sun. Later evening temperatures are likely 17-18 C (on the cool side), but pretty much holding steady at 20 C in metropolitan Montreal. Humidity levels are moderate, but will progressively be rising to higher standards later tomorrow into Monday. You may want to bring a light sweater for this evening.

Precipitation

Instability is being generated by a weak cold front associated with an area of low pressure sliding from our Northwest. As specified above, mostly cloudy skies are expected for the morning to early afternoon hours (some sunny breaks in between) with periods of showers - most of these bands are pushing South, however. Conditions are not favorable for severe weather, but enough instability for some periodic showers (30-40% probability due to scattered nature) and isolated embedded non-severe thunderstorms in the early afternoon (most of these, too, staying to the South into New York). Things, again, should increasingly improve by mid-late afternoon into the evening with some more clearing and therefore more sunshine, while most of the showers will have moved to our East and Southeast. Not a bad day overall.

Wind

Winds are likely variable from between the WSW and SW through the day, but more so from the SW during the evening, which means smoke will mostly be, as was the case for Taiwan's display, blowing towards the right of the audience of La Ronde (left for those on Notre-Dame). Also, like last week, smoke will occasionally push towards the right end of where spectators are seated in the park. Speeds are again light and ranging between 12-15 km/h (cooperative), but closer to 23-26 km/h (same direction) in the afternoon with some occasional gusts reaching closer to 35 km/h.

That's the way the weather should generally behave. To sum it up, a slightly cool evening with fairly light WSW-SW winds (mostly SW by evening) and moderate humidity levels under a few lingering clouds in a scattered fashion. Should be a mostly ideal night for the fireworks, just a touch on the cool side.
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Yet another low pressure system on the way for later tomorrow, though this is responsible for the warmer and more humid weather for both tomorrow and Sunday. Unfortunately, once this low pushes East, cooler air will sag Southward on its back end and, consequently, the last few days of June will end with relatively cool conditions. More Summer-like weather returning by end-week, however, as a nice building ridge from the West slowly pushes East.

Trav.

Trav, you're the best. Thank you very much!

Tyler, nice to hear from you! Please feel free to write up some reports if you saw any of the displays.

And now for Trav, from the Environment Canada website just now:

This watch is in effect from 03:50 PM to 08:00 PM EDT.

The sky has cleared over the regions between the Southern Témiscamingue and Montréal. The airmass over that area is very unstable and humid. A line of thunderstorms has formed over Témiscamingue and others have formed over parts of the area for which a thunderstorm watch is in effect. A funnel cloud has also been observed over Montréal's west island.


Paul.

Hi Paul,

Indeed, severe weather was observed in and around the island of Montreal, including, as you had quoted, a funnel cloud forming in the West Island of Montreal. Luckily, no touchdowns were reported as the funnel cloud did not make contact with the surface, and therefore becoming a tornado. To accompany the funnel were heavy rains, gusty winds and some grumbles of thunder here in the West Island.

I observed another developing severe thunderstorm cell coming in from the WNW just around since 7:10 p.m and this one is pushing towards the East End as I write this. A final line of strong storms/heavy showers is still moving in this direction within the next couple of hours (the risk should be over following 9:30-10:00 p.m). Following this, the air temperatures will begin to drop off slowly tonight and humidity levels will significantly be reduced in the process.

I was anticipating severe weather to develop today in Southern Quebec and Eastern Ontario, especially after seeing the sun make an appearance following noon. Humidity levels were VERY high and the air was quite unstable once the sun had appeared. The storms developing out there are being set off by a pair of cold fronts (the catalyst) coming in from the NW, which again will be giving way to unseasonably cool conditions for the final two days of June. As mentioned a couple of days ago, though, Summer-like weather will likely return for the first weekend of July as an amplified ridge forming out West slowly pushes Eastward.
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***EDIT: As I had expected, a defined line of strong thunderstorms and heavy rains came racing through Southern and Eastern Quebec by roughly 8:45 p.m. EDT as well as extending into Eastern Ontario. We lost electricity for about 20 minutes when the relatively strong downdrafts of the storm (nearly 80 km/h) drew near. For visual perspective, the following images represent composite radar imagery at 8:30 p.m. EDT depicting a classic squall line (a distinctive line consisting of numerous strong multicell thunderstorms) forming along and ahead of the secondary vigorous cold front. The first photo illustrates the full extent of the squall line with a spanning distance that is the equivalent of roughly 400-450 km from the Northeast to the Southwest. The red marker there indicates the approximate location of the West Island. Notice the slight curvature in the entire band, indicating some potentially damaging straight-line winds with some of the storms. The second shot shows a more zoomed in perspective of the same line taken at the same time.

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG2835.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG2833.jpg

Corresponding to the above images, here were the actual storms coming from the West-Northwest to Northwest. This first video shows the storm moving in. You can see some scud (low dark cloud usually developing under the storm's updraft area) forming there, which signifies strong downdrafts behind the shelf cloud (the elongated dark band of cloud). In addition, there were some signs of lowering beneath the shelf cloud, which may have suggested some brief rotation and funnel cloud formation - I kept my emphasis on this for a fair portion of the footage. Some thunder can be heard at times.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=knph1TRuZfc

The footage in the next video represents the storm overhead. In combination with the strong downbursts of wind, heavy lashing rains eventually came pouring down, as well as some pea-sized hail.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1NSySUCjE3c

In any case, now that the storms have passed through and moved off into New York, the airmass is stable, the winds have shifted direction (now from the WSW to NW) and humidity levels are already proceeding towards lower values.

Trav.

Your Canada Day forecast:

In the wake of the severe weather triggered by Monday evening's (June 28th) strong cold front, cooler air has, as expected, settled into Eastern Canada from the Hudson Bay and is expected to last for a couple of days longer (today included) due to a sharp trough in the jet stream. As such, this trough does play a role in governing Canada Day's weather before Summer-like conditions make their graceful return. Here is what to generally expect in most of Southern Quebec for Canada's 143rd birthday:

Temperature/humidity:

With the trough persisting and with an area of strong high pressure advancing in, daytime highs will continue to struggle in surpassing 20 C, and overnight lows will likely hover around the mid teens (a little cooler in the the lower double digits towards the Eastern Townships during the late evening-overnight period). Temperatures are suppressed due to breezy Northwesterly winds, and the same holds true for humidity levels (low). Equipt a light jacket or sweater if you plan to be out long just before and following dusk - it will be a chilly, if not cool, night.

Precipitation:

Instability will continue to linger into Southern Quebec for Canada Day because of the wrap-around effect of the low pressure system situated (strengthened by the trough) over central Quebec, and so widely scattered showers (brief if you encounter any) during the afternoon hours are possible, particularly when advancing Eastward into the Eastern Townships and towards Quebec City - otherwise simply a mix of sun and cloud, much like today. As a result of high pressure moving in, though, the chance for instability becomes lower into the very late evening-overnight, and I thus believe there will be mostly scattered low to mid level cloud by that point in time. Saturation levels are low at the surface and aloft by late day, but a little higher as you head East and Northeast of Montreal during the very early evening/late afternoon, resulting in a continued slight risk (still at 30-40%) for scattered showers for these hours in those areas. Chance of showers for the day is 30% in most of Southern Quebec.

Winds:

As mentioned previously, winds are principally coming out from the Northwest to later West-Northwesterly (WNW) at speeds in the moderate range at 17-23 km/h, though diminishing to 12-15 km/h (same directional range) by late evening-overnight. With the low humidity, the winds will provide a little chill when they blow, especially considering the direction(s).

***If you plan on heading to Ottawa, weather conditions are similar to Montreal, and so the evening should be ideal for the fireworks there, just on the cool side.
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Two tornadoes were confirmed by Environment Canada with the squall line on the evening of June 28th, one of which touched down in the West Island in Saint-Anne-de-Bellevue (roughly 8 km Southwest of where I reside) and the other just to the North of Montreal in Mascouche, roughly 30-35 km North of the city. Both tornadoes were registered at F0 strength (the weakest), but though at the lowest end of the Fujita scale, winds are, most assuredly, powerful enough to do some damage to trees (some large) and property, which was indeed the case for both areas affected. Fortunately, no injuries or fatalities were reported. An F0 is capable of winds of up to 116 km/h.

There were apparently numerous observations of funnel clouds that evening and earlier in the afternoon in both Ontario and Quebec, though I suspect many of the these reports had mistaken them for scud formations. As previously explained in the above post, scud clouds are clouds that commonly develop underneath the shelf cloud due to the powerful downdrafts forcing the warmer, moister air ahead of the storm to rise and condense into additional funnel cloud-like formations. Because of their ominous appearances, and the way they hang or droop beneath the shelf cloud, they are often erroneously identified as funnel clouds. Scud, however, can sometimes point to rotation, and therefore the presence of mesocyclonic activity, if or when they exhibit circular motion below the base. Wind shear, which are winds that change in speed or direction (or both) with increasing elevation, was also quite high that day, which prompted many appearances of funnel clouds.
Here is a picture shot from Saint-Anne-De-Bellevue:

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/your_weather/details/620/2899137/3/ca qc0142?ref=ugc_city_thumbs

I'll be heading down there to survey the damage.

Edit: And Tyler, it's a real pleasure to see and hear from you again, my friend. No problem, as always, for the forecasts and analyses.

Trav.

Saturday's weather for Portugal's highly anticipated display is expected to be fabulous and Summer-like. As stated several times previously, Summer weather is returning to much of Eastern Canada, and this will be giving way to some very warm temperatures over the course of the weekend and onward - there is a strong surge of warm, moist air circulating from the Gulf of Mexico with the ongoing atmospheric setup.

If the wind direction plays out the way I think it will, then surely this will be the "perfect" Summer's evening for the fireworks - at this point in time, it may be only the right end of the audience at La Ronde occasionally contending with smoke, but there is a fair possibility of smoke predominantly missing the audience altogether. Wind speeds are moderate from 16-19 km/h. Temperatures are the main story in being very warm to possibly hot standards with high humidity present, making it feel into the mid 30s C (high 30s-low 40s by Sunday and onward). Temperatures Saturday evening hovering around 24-25 C with continuing high humidity, feeling like the low 30s. For a change, I don't have any instability to speak of.

I'll have a final update by tomorrow evening, but I honestly doubt things will deviate too much.

Edit: Welcome to the hottest month of the year.

Trav.

To elaborate on the information presented in the above post, here is what to expect for this evening, the 3rd of July.

Temperature/humidity:

With an existing strong pressure gradient between high pressure to the South and low pressure to the West, a strong Southewesterly flow will be ushering in a warm, moist airmass into much of Eastern Canada. As such, temperatures will be achieving very warm to hot standards in Southern Ontario and Southern Quebec with daytime highs attaining 28-29 C (possibly striking 30 C), including here in Montreal. Humidity levels are borderline moderate-high, making it feel into the mid 30s C. Late evening temperatures likely still as high 25 C, but feeling like the low 30s with the humidity. More oppressive humidity will gradually settle in by tomorrow (Sunday) and onward (potentially accompanied by some high heat, humidex and smog advisories).

Precipitation:

I am usually used to providing much detail in this section, but again, there are virtually no unsettled conditions to report this time around. Skies will be mostly clear with a few mid level altocumulus clouds.

Wind:

This is where I would like to keep a watchful eye. I was carefully reviewing some of the later model runs today, and with the way isobars (lines of equal pressure on a synoptic weather chart) are closely aligned with each other, this suggests to me gusty conditions for much of the day today, particularly between 2:00-5:00 p.m, with gusts of up to 45-48 km/h while sustained between 30-33 km/h at this time period. Winds should subside somewhat by the evening hours, but still moderate at 22-25 km/h with occasional gusts close to 35 km/h. Gusty winds are the result of the moister airmass rushing in. Wind directional tendency remains from the Southwest during the day and the evening hours as well, so I suspect that smoke will mostly be blowing towards the right end of the audience at La Ronde.

That's the way the weather should generally play out. In essence, a typical Summer evening, but fairly breezy/windy as well. I will continue to monitor the windy conditions, especially since the winds are exhibiting a tendency to blow towards the right portion of the audience at La Ronde. If necessary, I will provide a brief update later today regarding wind speeds.

UV levels are expected to be very high for today and the following next few days, so be sure to adequately protect yourselves if you plan on staying outdoors for prolonged periods of time.

Trav.