Good afternoon,

The threat of thunderstorms, which have to potential to be severe this afternoon and early this evening, are most probable from now until 8:00 p.m. I'm currently detecting a powerful wave of precipitation with very high reflectivity on radar to the West near Ottawa and Southwest towards Brockville, and that was about 30 minutes ago. I'm not saying it is definitely coming this way, but just remember that there's the risk, while other bands of cells could still develop following that.

Everything from my previous post still stands firmly, but I want to include that we'll be having quite breezy condiitons from the Southwest this evening. Reasons for these winds is again because of the passage of the cold front (it's quite windy as I type this). Temperatures will drop off to 22-24 Celsius along with mostly cloudy skies and lingering humidity in the air. Though the risk is much slighter this evening (30%), please don't denounce the chance completely; this was actually the same risk percentage during England's performance, by the way.

I wouldn't rule out the chance of thunderstorms/severe thunderstorms and showers until about 11:00 to early overnight. Please bring your umbrellas and also your radios to keep yourselves updated on the risk of severe weather.

If anything changes, I'll be sure to notify you all, but if even if it does, I still wouldn't take out the chance. At this point, as things stand, we should be alright, but still be prepared.

Trav.

From the Weather Channel radar, it looks obvious that heavy thunderstorms will hit the Montreal area in the next 30-60 minutes, but they should be away after 6:00pm or so. I hope that the crew has completed the setup and that everything is well covered.

Again, we should be safe for tonight!

Fred

We should be fine, everyone; there are no new bands of precipitation.

As for the "heavy" thunderstorms, they were not even heavy in their entirety. The real heavy thunderstorms are to the East of here.

Although there is nothing new at the moment (we're now behind the front), I still encourage you all to be prepared.

Enjoy the display.

Trav.

Greetings,

My, my, I am quite busy this season (I've never seen so many risks consecutively). There is a low pressure system moving in from the West and Southwest later on tomorrow bringing with it some possible rain showers in the evening and some scattered showers in the afternoon. Winds should predominantly be the same as was the case for China, which is from the Southwest and on the breezy side.

I'll have much more details later on, but again, please bring your umbrellas and a light jacket. At this point, there seems to be no risk of storms, but just a pesky low. However, if thunderstorms occur, they are likely to be embedded.

Trav.

Good afternoon,

This reminds me of what happened to the U.S in 2002, though that was different because severe thunderstorms were in the area, whereas this could be steady persistent rainfall.

Anyhow, we are calling for light rain showers this evening and overnight. Winds will be from the South and West (or a combination of both) at 10-15 km/h with on and off breezes gaining speeds of close to, I suspect, 25-30 km/h. There is some decent moisture in the atmosphere at this time (about 15 Celsius dewpoint value), but there should be enough wind to move smoke accumulations away regardless.

I'm detecting large moderate bursts and bands of precipitation to our Southwest. These bands will be moving through in the next little while with steady rains associated with them and some possible embedded thunder. Currently, some defined dark lower cumulus are starting to move in from the Southwest introducing some of the rainfall. Ottawa, Cornwall, Morrisburg, Kingston all the way to Toronto are currently seeing rainfall, or at least some form of it. These bands are moving fairly quickly towards the Northeast. Atmospheric pressure is also dropping, which is a good indication of unsettled weather.

We could be in for some wet and damp conditions, but all I can say is that I sincerely hope things will hold off during the start to the finish of the fireworks. We currently stand at 80%.

Please dress appropriately and come equipted, as always.

Trav.

Good evening,

Once more, there is a risk of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and evening as a disturbance of low pressure will be coming through Southern/Eastern Ontario and Southern Quebec. It will be mainly cloudy tomorrow evening, but there is still the risk of storms and isolated showers. Some the of the t-storms in both provinces could reach severe limits since they are indeed associated with an upper level trough which will be enhancing instability (I'll have more information on that come tomorrow).

We stand with a good temperature of 22-24 Celsius under mainly cloudy skies and the chance of precipitation for tomorrow evening. Winds will be out from the East at 10-20 km/h with the occasional gust. Moisture levels will be identical or slightly higher than what was experienced during the American performance.

You know the routine. Just keep your umbrellas and other gear handy. I will present a final report sometime tomorrow afternoon.

Trav.

Greetings,

According to my observations taken outdoors and based on the weather analyses presented before me, I think that, for the most part, we should be alright. However, there is still the chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms because it is unstable, humid and the air is moist (dewpoints are high at 19 Celsius), so there's always the possibility under these conditions. I'm stating the risk because, in addition to the multitude of cumulus congestus clouds seen out there, Ottawa, Cornwall, Morrisburg also are as part of the risk this evening as well. As TRae pointed out, we should be mostly under variable to mainly cloudy skies at about 10:00 p.m, but I wouldn't rule out the chance of precipitation. That said, we are not in the severe thunderstorm watch box, but they are all around us at the moment. Thunderstorms, however, have been reported in Quebec City, Ottawa and many spots in Eastern Ontario near the border.

Everything else in my previous report still stands, but I just want to add that the winds may sometimes come from the North or Northeast at the same speeds (10-20 km/h). The bigger rains are tomorrow through to Friday, but I want to make it clear that there is again a chance showers and even a thunderstorm this evening. It wouldn't hurt to bring your umbrellas, just in case.

Trav.

Good afternoon,

As mentioned already to Pierre, for the first time since Spain's performance, I have nothing to report of for this evening's weather! All I can say is that high pressure has been moving in since last night resulting in fair and warmer Summer-like conditions with some slight humidity. Winds will be coming from the Northwest or perhaps at times from the North at 10-15 km/h while humidity levels should stay relatively constant and stable temperatures at or close to 22 Celsius. As Enkil would say, there's really nothing much to worry about this evening besides some admirable cloudy periods.

It would seem as if the weather is finally turning back into Summer from my birthday onwards into a good portion of the week, where even more humidity and higher temperatures are finally expected to return to most of Eastern Canada! Given that nearly the entire month was lousy, I think we should take the time to enjoy these conditions for a change!

Good weather coupled with a fireworks display this evening equals an excellent birthday treat. I'm very grateful.

Trav.

Good evening,

For the second time running, we will be experiencing a beautiful July-like evening with temperatures remaining constant at about 26-27 Celsius under some slight humidity making it feel like 31-33 Celsius. Skies will be predominantly clear with perhaps a few clouds here and there thanks to the same building high pressure I spoke of last time. The wind, about 10-15 km/h from the West, should be enough to blow the smoke away despite the humidity present tomorrow evening.

We will hit a high of about 30-32 C under mainly sunny skies tomorrow afternoon, so please enjoy the day and the upcoming days as well, much like we have since the 21st.

Germany should have perfect Summer weather for their performance. Best of luck to the final entrant.

Trav.

Just a final update, but the winds should be from the Southwest and still possibly from the West occasionally. However, the humidity levels will remain constant and the wind speeds this evening have somewhat diminished to about 5-10 km/h. We do seem to have about 15 km/h winds from the SW this afternoon, but I just hope there's enough wind to clear the smoke during the show this evening. I'm hopeful to see a continued wind velocity this evening identical to that expected this afternoon.

I'll post any new updates if anything different is presented later on today.

Trav.

Showers and thunderstorms/thundershowers will again make an appearance throughout the day today thanks to a very slow moving, though weakening, cold front associated with vigorous low pressure system situated well South of the border.

Winds are expected to be generally light from the South and Southwest at 5-10 km/h while moisture and humidity levels will be rather high to generate the kind of humidex (31-33 C) I'm seeing at the ambient temperature of 23 Celsius this evening, which could be a problem if there is a lack of wind at the same time. Obviously, atmospheric pressure will be low and thus making way for quite unstable conditions. Most of the storms have the greatest potential early this morning (don't be surprise if they wake you up) into the afternoon, some of which could be isolated severe. I suspect the same will hold true in the evening hours, especially with the abundant humidity involved.

There is a chance that the forecast might change for the better, but it depends on the speed of the cold front. I'll have a final weather report outlining this sometime later today.

With a mostly threatening fireworks season with weather this year, I suppose it's only natural to end the same way. Regardless of what happens, please go prepared; you know the routine. At this point, let's hope we're spared at 10:00 p.m and of course during the award presentations being held at about 1/2 hour before that.

Trav.

Possibly the final weather report for the season!

Still the risk of showers and thunderstorms today, especially this afternoon, but to a smaller degree this evening (40%). This risk is still associated with the same cold front, but I have a feeling it will move out by the time the fireworks are set to start, even for the awards presentations.

Winds will now be out from the North with a little more helpful speeds at 10-15 km/h rather than the light Southerly wind. The new Northerly wind is a directional shift coming from behind the front itself, which is why it is transitioning from the more pronounced Southerly and Southwesterly flow we are currently seeing ahead of the front. The North/Northeast winds starting later tonight and through tomorrow will take some humidity away, but not all of it, thankfully enough, because it is a relatively weak frontal system. Moisture levels are still stagnant (dewpoint values between 19-21 C) along with the same ambient temperature of 23 C until the front finally moves through towards the Southeast, but hopefully the given winds will indeed be present to keep any smoke build up from occurring (as in Panzera 2004 from my viewpoint).

Regardless, bring your umbrellas and come prepared, although I don't think even a tornadic supercell would stop us from attending this performance.

Finally, I want to point out that there are severe thunderstorm watches established for regions surrounding Montreal, but I wouldn't be surprised if we're added to the watch box later on as well. The severity will diminish come later this evening both with the departure of the front coupled with the loss of daytime heating. Until then, watch out for possible developing storms ahead and along the front.

What a year this was for me in watching and analyzing weather threats for the fireworks, even though everyone was not interferred by the conditions between the 10-10:30 time frame. However, with the slight threat this evening, that makes 6 out of 9 displays under the gun this season, while having 2 extremely close calls (England and USA).

In any case, a little present from me: expect a hot, hazy and humid (the 3 Hs) week with the occasional chance of thunderstorms/heavy thunderstorms (my kind of week). An impressive start to August as well, unlike June and July.

Peace!

Trav.

Hi guys,

I just wanted to share some photos that I took yesterday evening with the severe thunderstorm that just skimmed the West Island, while especially influencing regions further South. I learned that there were tornado watches associated with this monstrosity further South and West, and this was an automatic conclusion from me based on the Mammatus formations I've witnessed hanging from the anvil last night. Some of the most beautiful and intimidating cloud formations took place last evening and I have not seen anything like them in some time. Here are some photos:

The anvil (if you were at a distance, you could see the entire thing):

[url=http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/DSC00549.jpg
]http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/DSC00549.jpg
[/url]

[url=http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/DSC00542.jpg
]http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/DSC00542.jpg
[/url]

Massive congestus clouds:

[url=http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/DSC00541.jpg
]http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/DSC00541.jpg
[/url]

[url=http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/DSC00540.jpg
]http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/DSC00540.jpg
[/url]

The Mammatus (very rare to see this intricate formation so distinctively):

[url=http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/DSC00558.jpg
]http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/DSC00558.jpg
[/url]

[url=http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/DSC00555.jpg
]http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/DSC00555.jpg
[/url]

[url=http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/DSC00559.jpg
]http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/DSC00559.jpg
[/url]

Mammatus with plane:

[url=http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/DSC00552.jpg
]http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/DSC00552.jpg
[/url]

If you ever see the Mammatus, it is important that you take extreme caution if the storm is near, or is approaching your region. The cloud indicates reverse-direction convection, where the warm powerful updrafts convect downwards into the much colder air directly below the anvil, causing condensation underneath and gradually become the globules distinctively seen in the photos. This also is only seen when the storm has reached its optimum maturity, and is a clear sign that the storm is potentially capable of producing tornadic activity. Numerous watches and warnings for severe thunderstorms and potentially tornadoes were posted last night to the South.

Trav.

I'm still a little skeptical about Wednesday's weather. A warm front affecting Southwestern and Southern Ontario tomorrow will gradually approach our region later on Wednesday, bringing with it some moderate showers and light rains.

As for Friday, with respect to what I mentioned earlier about a "disturbance" developing which could change things that day, it may actually become a reality. I recently learned that the disturbance could be a vigorous Colorado low, a system that is quite common at this time of year and during the Winter months. The rains will (at this point in time) arrive Friday, and the low will deliver quite a bit of it through to Saturday, or even Sunday depending on its speed. It's a gamble, but I hope its movement will slow somewhat and hold off until Saturday. Even if Friday appears to improve, I suspect that there's still the chance that the rain could arrive in the evening hours. Unfortunately the low will cool off the milder air provided by the warm front coming on Wednesday.

Just wanted to bring it up so you're all aware of the risk.

Trav.

Wednesday's weather should be OK, but a bit cold, and Friday's weather could be a disaster. At least, there won't be strong winds. The again, who knows, the weather might change for Friday.