It's not so much Wednesday during the day that I'm concerned about; it's moreso the evening. The front is moving Northeastward, and close places like Ottawa and Cornwall to our West and Southwest respectively, have the risk of showers and light rains, and so there's a possibility that it could creep our way in the latter part of the day. If anything though, I'm sure it would be along the lines of a 40-60% chance, so there's good news. Thank goodness the winds should be more and less calm, as Enkil stated, but regardless, make sure you bundle up! If there's enough clouds present, which there should be, it should keep things slightly warmer.

And yes, Friday is the bigger issue. As mentioned in my previous post above, I'll continue to track the Colorado low and keep an eye on its speed.

Trav.

According to tomorrow evening's forecast, there should be overcasted conditions, thus keeping the temperatures from dropping excessively. Still being persistent, there's a risk of precipitation during the course of the evening as well along that warm front, but even if rain does occur, I don't think it would be anything beyond the form of light showers, as depicted by various precipitation maps. Temperatures should stay at about 10-11 Celsius with light winds around 10 km/h from the Northeast and East. Bring your jackets, and of course it wouldn't hurt to bring a small umbrella.

I'm uncertain if I'll be able to make it tomorrow evening given the hour of presentation and my problem with transportation.

Trav.

Wow, that's really good! Usually, the temperature is around 5°C during night time these days. We're lucky! Friday's forecast still hasn't changed, but maybe it won't rain a lot. Hopefully, you'll be able to make it, Smoke...

Hey Enkil,

I don't think I'll be able to make it tonight as well as Friday, but maybe you or someone could always fill me in briefly with a small summary!

Enjoy the show, guys, and remember the weather conditions! Everything should be alright, but there's still the risk of showers this evening and overnight associated with the warm front, so keep it in mind. Things should be mostly cloudy and mild for the most part, though.

Trav.

Trav,

Though I'm not sure what's keeping you from going tonight & Friday, I do remember you mentioning that transportation was possibly a problem for you.

I'm driving down to Namur metro station and taking the metro to Papineau. I'd be glad to give you a ride there and back if that would help - especially since you live close by.

Sorry about the late notice, but if you get this message before 8-8:30 and want the ride, give me a call 514-651-8723.

If not, then thanks, as always, for the weather update! And I'll have the displays from both nights on video - the next-best-thing to being there.

Tyler

Hi TRae,

Wow, I really appreciate your very kind gesture, my friend, but don't worry about it. The reason for my absence tonight is simply we've been invited for dinner at my aunt's place and to have a reunion with some family that are coming up from Toronto. With respect to Friday night, I may be heading to Brockville (and traveling in the rain ). It's true that I do have trouble with transportation, but it appeared that things changed up for me otherwise this week. If anything changes for Friday, I'll definitely let you know. And it looks as if though I did indeed got your message too late, but it's no big deal. I guess I'll see you and everyone else when you get back.

And it's more than a pleasure to bring forward the weather conditions to you guys as well. It really reminds me of the good times during the actual competition in the Summer time.

Take care, enjoy the show, and thanks for everything!

Trav.

Guys,

Terrible weather conditions, though quite mild and humid, will prevail for most of the day on Friday with that approaching Colorado low, and from the types of clouds seen today, you can tell that its on the move. This is a very complex low, but I won't go into extreme details.

The trajectory of the system has changed in such a way that it will take a ride on the jet stream, move Northward and then take its original Easterly track. Because of this fallback in its prior constant motion/direction, this means that the greatest possiblity of rain/heavy rain could occur in the later afternoon to the early evening along the cold front, according to the precipitation models. Likewise, with the impeding movement, the system will naturally take somewhat longer to exit our region, in which case it won't conclude its business here until early Saturday.

However, unlike other typical Colorado lows, this one lacks somewhat in completing its full development due to the absence of colder air in the West, so things could have actually been a lot worse! On the other hand, the system is still vigorous because there is ample influxes of moisture coming in from the Gulf to sustain its current intensity. As a result, expect the risk of thunderstorms to be greatest in the afternoon to early evening (some of these, if they occur, could produce some loud bangs) in addition to rains. There is again a lot of moisture associated with this, so things will also be a bit humid and this could indeed serve to cause some of the t-storms out there to reach severe limits(I can't believe I'm stating this kind of scenario and it's almost November!).

To sum up, we have anywhere from an 60-80% chance of rain for the evening hours, along with the risk of thunderstorms, some of which could be heavy should they occur. Winds will be fairly gusty at times, as is the case with vigorous lows, at 25-35 km/h (gusts could be closer 50 km/h) from the South and Southwest, which will shift to the NW after the front comes through. Finally, I suppose we can all appreciate the gorgeous temperature of 17-19 C present at the time. Note that we could get close to the 25+ mm range, most of which will fall in the afternoon and early evening. The winds are also a concern, so I hope they won't be strong enough to delay the fireworks.

In any case, all I can tell you guys is that all we can hope for is that we get our usual weather-proof fireworks barrier at the time of presentation, as was most prevalent with all the threats this past year, and that things hold off for the 45 minutes provided. I'll give one last report tomorrow before the shows are set to begin, but I'll be looking at radar and satellite imagery to see how things will be processing.

You know the drill, bring your umbrellas and be equipted! I didn't think I'd be storm watching at the end of October...

Trav.

Trav, the term "weather-proof fireworks barrier" just made my night.

Now if only the Habs can beat Ottawa.

And for those of you waiting for my videos, the first is uploaded and being processed by YouTube. I'll post a link during one of the hockey game's intermissions when it's finished.

Thanks for the update Trav.

Everything in my previous message still stands firmly, though the chance of seeing precipitation at some point in the evening is practically guaranteed. Winds still breezy from the South and Southwest with slightly weaker speeds at 20-30 km/h with occasional gusts closer to 45 km/h. Temperatures are still at 17-19 C, but it's just the rain and wind combo that is the setback. Thunderstorms are also still a possibility. Just hope that the rain holds off, or at least shows breaks between 9:45-10:30, even though hourly forecasts suggest showers and steady rainfall until early overnight.

A few words about radar and satellite imagery, there are, and have been quite a bit of bands of precipiation in our vicinity since 2:00, and is now falling steady at this time (almost 4:00) and since prior to 3:00. Most of the precipitation associated with this is mostly moderate, and some approaching near heavy-those that are associated with thunderstorms. I am detecting some lightning activity in between these bands, most of which is occurring to our South and West. Some of these can still turn severe in the coming hours until the cold front finally passes through, but no watches and warnings have been issued from Environment Canada as of yet for Montreal or areas near the island. In some contradiction, personally at this point, I don't think big Summer-like thunderstorms will erupt, merely because of shorter day length and a generally weaker temperature/pressure gradient present, but decent t-storm activity is still well possible this afternoon and evening embedded in these bands.

And Tyler, perhaps I should introduce that term more often in my future reports. And again, it was no problem for providing the update, although it isn't the best of news! However, note that we had a humidex of 30 Celsius today on October 19th, while reaching about 25 C. Now that is good news!

Well, that's all I have to say with respect to the weather. I leave the rest up to you guys.

Chow!

Trav.

Those of you thinking about attending the fireworks tomorrow night, I advise that you dress appropriately as the weather will be uncomfortably cold. We're expecting a daytime high of barely -10 C with breezy conditions (winds Westerly ranging from 20-30 km/h), creating a windchill at or near -20 C along with obviously clear skies. Because there will be minimal cloud cover in the evening, the clear skies will promote rapid loss of heat that was absorbed at the surface during whatever short daylight hours we have.

Reduce as much exposure to the cold as possible, and keep warm if you must be out there for extended periods of time. The Colorado low on the way in time for Monday/late Sunday will be our second Winter storm giving way to a Wintery mix (snow, a little bit of ice pellets, freezing rain, etc.) and possible strong winds, but at least this won't be a problem for tomorrow night, just the bone chilling temperatures!

Do you guys miss Summer already?

Trav.

It's actually going to be quite the contrast in weather conditions compared to that of last Saturday's dreadful cold. Temperatures will be a fair deal milder tomorrow evening and I'm expecting temperatures to range around -5 to -7 C during the evening hours along with winds (breezy Westerlies between 15-20 km/h) creating windchills no less than -13 C, as opposed to last week's -20s. There could be some small distribution of lingering low cloud here and there, but things will predominantly be clearing out. However, note that even though it is generally warmer, the temperatures will speed up in declining during the late evening/overnight hours to as low as -14 C due to clear skies.

In essence, nothing too impressive to be mentioned for tomorrow's weather, so things should be alright for Ampleman's performance, while the slightly milder temperatures should make things a little more comfortable, though still dress accordingly of course. The somewhat breezy winds may cause some small discomfort, but nothing you can't handle, right?

Trav.

Good evening,

If any of you are planning on heading out to see the fireworks tomorrow evening for the Fire on Ice event, be prepared to face bone-chilling temperatures once again, colder than what was experienced back on the 1st of December by a few degrees Celsius - I advise that you protect yourself adequately against this frigid weather. The winds will vary between the light and moderate border at 10-20 km/h, while predominantly coming from the East, enough to make things uncomfortable. Temperatures could be as cold as -21 C tonight, but our high tomorrow is as low as -14 to -15 C. I do however expect the evening values to moderate somewhat since some cloud will begin to move in from the Southwest associated with that big Winter storm moving up to Eastern Canada (more on this after). Windchills could easily surpass the -20 C threshold at -22 to -23 C. All I can say is to dress very warmly and again to reduce your exposure to the cold to a minimum whenever possible. Perhaps double layered clothing coupled with a thick warm coat would do it justice.

Now for the Winter storm. I was monitoring the system for days now and I was hoping it would maintain its initial East/Northeast trajectory back on Wednesday and head off towards the Atlantic. Instead, it's taking on a more North and Northeasterly path and is going to push right into most of Eastern Canada with copious snows and at times gusty Easterly winds, creating blowing and drifting snow. The storm will commence tomorrow during the overnight hours, so it won't be a problem for tomorrow evening's display. In terms of accumulations by the time the storm departs mid-Monday, well we are assured at least 20 cm, but there is a possibility that we could see even 30 cm, and potentially even close to 40 cm. Adding accumulations within the last month and assuming we get 30 cm from this storm, this means that after this storm has completed its business, we would have gotten easily between 85-90 cm so far within just a month's time since accumulations have been occurring in mid November.

It looks like we're getting a variety of situations this weekend: Tomorrow (Saturday) is freezing cold and Sunday is a big snowstorm. You guys take care if you have to go out on either day, especially Sunday into the Monday morning commute. Best advice is to stay home if possible. It's going to be one big mess out there, take my word for it.

I suppose it's safe to say that we're guaranteed a white Christmas.

Trav.

Thanks so much for the forecast Trav - I figured one was coming which is why I haven't so much as glanced at any other weather reports... knowing that yours are the only ones to trust!

I have to head downtown to hand in my last two final papers for the semester on Monday. I will make sure to give myself an extra hour or so for the commute using public transportation.

I was kind of hoping for a nice snowfall during Royal's display tomorrow night... maybe I'll get one for the final Feux sur Glace display.

Tyler

Hi Tyler,

It was no problem at all with the report, my friend, but I also felt that this Winter storm, called a Nor'easter, deserved some acknowledgement since it will be bringing quite a mess. The winds will be gusty (possible gusts could be clocked at 80-90 km/h) tomorrow as well from the NE and East, and the snow will subsequently be pelting.

As for next week for the final display, I'm watching a disturbance possibly developing for much later in the week, and so you may very well get your wish with some snowfall in time for next weekend, but I won't make any promises just yet until time marches forward.

In any case, I hope the papers went well and hope the commute to school wouldn't be too bad Monday morning.

Enjoy Royal's show tonight, while keeping warm of course. Look forward to the videos as well.

Trav.

Just for the heck of it, I wanted to throw in some little statistics about the lashing December 16th Winter storm. For the most part, snow was accumulating at a rate between 2-5 cm per hour during most of the storm's duration with the exception of when it was entering and when it was departing. I checked the maximum gust of wind at about 77 km/h, while the maximum sustained wind, which occurred at approximately 4:00 p.m yesterday, was observed at 53 km/h from the NE, which was the dominant wind direction due to the motion of a "Nor'easter". In the end, for most of the island of Montreal, depending on where you reside, the average accumulations of snow did indeed reach quite close to 40 cm where some areas were locally below that threshold value and some slightly over - the West Island received about 42 cm.

We've obviously received well above more than the average amount of snow for the entire month of December. My previous records of snow accumulation totals since mid-November actually closely match those given by observational networks, and so we've received between 95-100 cm (my 85 to 90 cm was under the assumption that we get close to 30 cm as opposed to closer to 40 from this storm) of snow as a grand total, which is equivalent to over 3 feet. To sum up for Montreal:

Snow total: ~40
Max wind gust: 77 km/h
Max sustained wind: 53 km/h (Northeasterly)
Grand total of snow to date: close to 100 cm, or ~1 meter (within a month's time)

As for snow accumulations of some selected major cities that I thought would be interesting for comparison (all in centimeters):

Quebec City: 53
Cornwall, Ontario: 51
Ottawa: 36
Windsor, Ontario: 28
Moncton: ~20
Toronto: 16 (plus ice pellets and some freezing rain)
Halifax: 15

Finally, I took these pictures and tried to get some objects comparable to about 3 feet in height in the photos. The actual height of the snow is astonishing:

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/DSC00658.jpg

In this picture you can see the chairs almost completely buried. You can also barely see the table there, which is practically covered up, and its top represents about 3 feet off the ground. This is mostly undisturbed snow:

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/DSC00661.jpg

What a storm this was! I hope that everyone got through it alright. It's too bad we're going to get about another ~5 cm by Wednesday from an Alberta Clipper.

Trav.