Good evening,

It looks as if though another deep intense area of low pressure (the "disturbance" I was referring to last week) will be affecting most of Eastern Canada this weekend, though not quite in the same way the Nor'easter of last Sunday did - quite the contrary in fact. The story is that temperatures are on the rise temporarily. Associated with the low is a strong surge of very warm air provided by the warm front, allowing temperatures to rise drastically to about 8-10 Celsius come early to mid Sunday! For Saturday evening with respect to the final fireworks display, though, it will also be quite warm since temperatures will be actually rising as opposed to falling with the arrival of that warm front. As a result, it's possible to see some rain showers during the evening and overnight hours. The high on Saturday is about 0 to -1 C along with possible scattered flurries (wet) during the day. This is good news, as the temperatures won't be nearly as cold as they were last week and on the 1st of Dec.. The winds will be breezy easterlies at anywhere between 15-25 km/h as that low approaches. Best advice is to still obviously dress warmly, and of course to watch out for possible rain showers. In essence, a slushy weekend coming up, but at least it will help melt and thaw out some of the snow!

Finally, note that although it is indeed expected to be warm for Sunday, temperatures will rapidly drop off during the course of the day, and so the rain could quickly transform back into snow come late day Sunday, which should give way to some small snowfall overnight Sunday and of course in time for Christmas Eve. Consequently, the high of 8-10 C will more likely arrive earlier in the day as opposed to later in it.

In other news, the Winter solstice officially arrives overnight tonight at 1:08 a.m, marking tomorrow night the longest night of the year. However, to be honest, with the onset of Winter, things aren't looking too bad this coming week. In the meantime, I'm doing my best in enjoying this short-lived wonderful warm weather coming! Rain and even the risk of an embedded thundershower is possible.

And so concludes the reports for 2007! What an interesting year this was in terms of weather, not just in terms of during the fireworks, but also on an overall basis. Let's see what Summer 2008 has to offer - I'm expecting it to be a hot one for some odd reason...

Trav.

And with the conclusion to the 2007 weather reports comes a HUGE thank you to you, Trav!

It's only a matter of time before the majority of Montrealers begin turning to this forum as its primary source for weather forecasts.

Paul, time to start thinking about how you can cash in on Trav!

Tyler

Hi Tyler,

As always, it was really no problem in forwarding all the condensed weather information, and I'm enamored to know that they were useful for the most part. And with that comes a big you're welcome.

Just one last thing that I thought would be worth mentioning for tonight, but the winds will be quite gusty with the passage of that strong cold front. I mentioned this to Enkil very briefly, but these winds are the result of a sharp temperature difference behind and ahead of the front, and so as stated in my previous post about temperatures dropping off rapidly, strong winds will work to equalize the large temperature difference gap - temperatures will drop off about as much as 12 Celsius in a matter of hours tonight. Environment Canada also seems to have issued a wind warning, where winds could gust close to possibly 90 km/h, so take care if you must be out later tonight into most of the day tomorrow.

And finally, I just wanted to correct our snowfall figure from the December 16th storm, in which case we received about 32 cm and not close to 40 cm - the latter was set in areas near Gatineau, which I was looking at in error. This means that we've gotten about 64 cm from both major storms combined, both of which occurred this month.

I'll leave it there! Look forward to Summer, and again I was glad to be of service.

Take care, guys.

Trav.

^^^

I apologize for the double post, but I forgot to mention one thing to my list of updates, and that's about being able to see Mars! The sight will be quite appealing both tonight and tomorrow night (Christmas Eve) as Mars rises in the East as the Sun sets in the West at dusk.

Unfortunately, the weather will not be cooperating tonight as we're getting mostly overcasted and rainy (at times heavy) conditions this evening. However, there is a chance that we could see it in time for tomorrow evening as the clouds may subside somewhat, so if you get the chance and the weather is permitting it, take a look at around dusk and look East and you should see a bright golden-like object, which is Mars. It will look distinctive because it happens to be rising in conjunction with the sun setting, so it will allow it to shimmer nicely in the sky. I sincerely hope that we get the chance since Mars won't be as distinctively seen again until 2016.

It would have been even more splendid to see it tonight, though, since the Moon will also be gliding right past Mars to the Northeast, but as long as we can see the planet, that's what counts!

On a side note, speaking of Mars, there's a 1 in 75 chance that an asteroid could collide with the planet by around January 30th, 2008. These are actually good odds by comparison.

That's all I have to offer.

Cheers,

Trav.

Greetings,

I simply wanted to inform and bring everyone's attention to some interesting news about the lunar eclipse taking place tomorrow night (the 20th) just in case you didn't know, and of course if you're interested. There will be three phases of the eclipse where the Moon will first pass through the Earth's outer shadow, the penumbra, and later into the inner shadow, the umbra, after about an hour and a half has elapsed, and finally back into the penumbra. The entire eclipse cycle, including the partial, will last about just over 3 hours. For those of us living under Eastern Daylight Time, the spectacle will commence around 8:42 p.m and last up till roughly 12:09 a.m. Once the Moon enters the penumbra, some of the sunlight will be blocked out on it, but at about 10:01 p.m (EST) the Moon will enter into the umbral part of the shadow, which is when the total eclipse will start. At this time, the Moon is expected to take on an interesting mix of colors ranging between orange, red, and perhaps even darkish brown. This is in part because some of the incoming sunlight hitting the Earth's atmosphere is usually refracted back towards space, but in this case it will be hitting the moon, creating some of these vivid colors through time. The total eclipse is estimated to last approximately 50 minutes before it re-enters the secondary partial eclipse. In all, this event is rather interesting since the eclipse is taking place in conjunction with a moon phase.

Regarding the weather, we should be alright since high pressure is slowly moving in giving us but a few cloudy periods, although it will be cold, so bundle up if you're planning to head out there and see the eclipse from another vantage point.

And on a celestial note, isn't it now nice to see the sunlight lasting on the horizon close to 6:00 p.m? We're gaining extra daylight fast - an average of a 2-3 minute gain each day for the past few weeks. That pattern will continue up till June 21st.

Cheers,

Trav.

Thanks for the detailed information Trav - I will be watching a bit before 10 o'clock with great interest.

Hope you're enjoying it!

Hi Trae,

Indeed, I'm enjoying the eclipse quite a bit, and I hope everyone who's getting the chance to see it is liking it to the same level! Just taking a little intermission, but I'm excited about the total eclipse coming soon!

In any case, right now the Moon is into the partial eclipse, and as it continues to push further into the outer shadow and into that of the inner, the entire surface will eventually be darkened. By 10 up till 10:51 p.m, a light orange color may emerge slowly, and perhaps a little later even a shade of red. The color actually depends on the amount of dust in the Earth's atmosphere, so if there's a lot in concentration, chances are the Moon will take on more of a redish tint and perhaps even darkish brown. If not, a lighter orange may take place, making it look like a Halloween pumpkin. Either way, a nice lunar display going on. Following 10:51, the Moon's surface will slowly gain back light from the Sun and be fully exposed 10 minutes past midnight.

Enjoy the exciting, yet somehow intimidating lunar display, guys. And it was no problem for the information! The next lunar eclipse takes place on December 20th, 2010, just before Winter solstice starts.

Take care,

Trav.

Good evening,

I figured a little analysis would be interesting since this coming snowstorm is one of much vehemence. Goodness.

As I'm sure many of you are aware of by now, a terrible low pressure system is tracking its way Northward from the United States, and this massive storm could deliver crippling amounts of snow to many highly populated areas in Eastern North America, including in and around our region. I've been tracking this system for several days now (even before our recent snowfall) since the storm was in its infancy, but now it has matured itself quite a bit since then and now has its eye set on Eastern Canada as it takes a ride on that jetstream leading it here.

With regards to Montreal, Southwestern/Eastern Quebec and Eastern Ontario, 40-50 cm (a minimum of close to a foot) is very possible in these regions, making this particular storm the king of all snowstorms we've encountered since last November. However, it's not just the snow, but also the gusty winds that will accompany it, which in fact could be in excess of 70-80 km/h from the North/Northeast tomorrow afternoon into the evening - this will create strong lashing, blowing and drifting snow. As it tracks Northward, the pressure gradient between the storm and the high pressure further to the North of Quebec will become gradually steeper, creating eventually stronger winds.

In the extreme Southern portion of New Brunswick, this looks to be an all rain event, as is the case for the majority of Nova Scotia. Central New Brunswick, this can be a persistent wave of freezing rain and ice pellets, but Northern New Brunswick, it's all snow. States' side there have been reports of copious amounts of snow in many parts of the midwest - it's all snow on the back end of the low, but South of it, it's rain, such as in Southern New York and in part why it's going to rain in Nova Scotia. Further South into Florida and Georgia, this system has been responsible for several tornado outbreaks in and North of Tallahassee, though thankfully no one was hurt there. And it's snowing as far South as Jackson, Mississippi. Quite a complex system!

For us, the snow will commence rather soon and persist until early to mid Sunday before it slows down into light flurries. There are two waves associated with this storm (think of it as the small and big asteroid from that movie "Deep Impact" lol) - the first wave will deliver anywhere from 10-15 cm of snow by tomorrow morning before the major secondary component of the storm moves later on tomorrow - this could bring us a fast additional 20-30 cm by the end of early Sunday. The center of the low is currently North of Georgia, but is slowly migrating this way to Eastern Canada, just in time for later tomorrow afternoon. Once the first wave moves out, you may notice the snow subsiding to some extent tomorrow morning, but don't let that fool you - the bigger secondary wave of precipitation is well on the way following that little episode. For the most part between both waves, the snow will be persistent, though just perhaps lighter in nature before it picks up increasingly again. There's a slight chance that we could encounter some ice pellets mixing in tomorrow afternoon, but that's much more pronounced for the Eastern Townships East of here.

Now, that's how the storm will work until the first half of Sunday (that entirely depends on how fast the system moves out, of course). This storm, given its strength, has the potential of breaking the record set back on March 4th, 1971 for the most snow that ever fell in a single day. On March 4th, 1971, 43.2 cm fell in Montreal, so if we get at least 43.3 cm from this coming system within a 24 hour period, then it's a new record. Similarly, to date, we have precisely 317 cm of snow since November. The record set back for the time period of 1970-1971, from November to mid April, was a grand total of 382.7 cm (or ~383). Assuming we get at least 30 cm from this storm, that'll bring us up to 347 cm, making us liable to pick up about 36.1-37 cm. From this last recent storm, we acquired exactly 19.2 cm, but expect possibly more than double that from this monstrosity of a storm. Ottawa, too, could see record-breaking accumulations (their record is about 437 cm by mid April in 1971). Either way, this is easily the second snowiest Winter on record. That same storm from 1971 was additionally responsible for 17 deaths alone in Montreal, so I'm hoping that we won't see a repeat of that.

In closing, if there's any last minute things anyone needs to do, best do it now. I'm expecting the snow to start slowly anytime now (probably already did) as the first light bands of precip on radar are slowly pushing this way in from Cornwall. I'll have final accumulations likely by Sunday-Monday. And yes, TRae, I'll prepare myself well. This is quite devastating given the MASSIVE heights of those snowbanks already seen out there. We're actually really lucky since a lot of the snow had melted during the January thaw in the first week of the month, or else we'd be even worse off. Either way, we're so buried...the snow is already almost as tall as my fence!

On a side note, don't forget to advance your clocks one hour forward this Sunday (there's some nice news that I wanted to save for ya). And yeah, another possible system could be here in time for mid week next week, but I'll keep an eye on that.

If anybody is interested in taking pictures and posting them here, feel free to do so - after all, it is, at the moment, the biggest storm this season!

Edit: I honestly don't mind beating the record, considering that we've suffered and endured so much this Winter already! Might as well! Go for it, Winter 07-08!

In any case, take care and stay safe,

Trav.

Thanks for the report, Smoke. I think the mini-storm has just ended. Now, we're between both systems. The major one should be here in an hour, I think. Right?

Hi Enkil,

I'm sorry for the late response - I've been so caught up with the storm! My apologies!

No problem for the report, my friend. Seeing the time you posted, yes, the first wave had already gone through since earlier this morning, giving us about 7 cm of snow by the time the snow had slowed down. I noticed a little mixture of freezing rain accretions mixed in this morning as well, though that was short-lived.

As for the second wave, well, as I'm sure you're very well seeing our there, it has very well started and has really picked up from 2-3:00 p.m, especially as we approached 4:00. Those precipitation bands currently coming as I write this are quite moisture-abundant, hence the REALLY chunky flakes that have been coming down over the last couple of hours. This sort of snow should persist for most of the evening, and there's still another 15-25 cm well on the way by tomorrow morning until the entire secondary component of the system finally moves off. Wind warnings as I was sure would pop up today, have just been issued by Environment Canada and gusts could get close to 90 km/h, possibly more in some cases, throughout tonight and this evening. Please beware of this.

Elsewhere, big t-storms around lakes Ontario and Erie, as well as in Maryland have developed over the last few hours. There's quite a bit of convective energy associated with the system, thus heavy thunderstorms have been errupting in more Southern parts of the system.

Regarding our snow, the reason why we're getting so much of it is merely because of our proximity to the center of the low.

Again, if anyone has pics, feel free to share them. Big clean up coming up...

Trav.

This snowstorm is just too amazing! Definitely the best one so far this Winter. The winds are very powerful and getting stronger every hour. With 90km/h winds, I think we now have our "Snowstorm of the Century". I hope we get more than 40cm lol.

You said it, Enkil, let's go for it, as I said in my last message! This is why I had also said in my report "the king of snowstorms" is coming.

I can't wait to see your footage, Enkil! I got kinda excited that I took some as well from all angles of my house, but I don't think it'll be nearly as epic as yours. The winds could very well reach 100 km/h at times. It looks just insane out there as I write this, but you're right, I also noticed the winds picking up steadily, though perhaps every half an hour at times! Take a look at the radar imagery - it's very impressive right now! Looks like a secondary band of heavy snow is still yet to follow.

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/index.php?product=satradarmaps&pageco ntent=satradarmaps&map_strd=montreal&genre_strd=satrad&idx_strd=12&ani matemaps=true

Feel free to post any new updates if you have anything you'd like to share! March 7th-March 8th - one big storm to remember for the rest of our lives. I'm just happy that I dedicated a little report to cover it.

Other than that, don't even think about going out there, guys!

Trav.

Smoke, I think I saw lightning, several times!!

You saw it, too? Then I wasn't seeing things! It's certainly possible-this system has a good deal of vertical development on it, indicative of convection.

Anyhow---Lightning coupled with snowstorm=thundersnow!

Trav.

I'm excited for the "secondary band of heavy snow" coming from Brockville. So far, this has been a great show to watch lol.