Hi STL,
Your forecast for Wednesday, August 11th, in Appleton, Wisconsin is as follows:
Temperature/Humidity
Temperatures are expected to attain the very high 20s C and possibly low 30s C (as much as 31 C depending on the amount of sunshine present) with very high humidity (sticky), making it feel like into the very high 30s C and potentially the very low 40s C. Late day showers and thunderstorms, if any, however, will briefly cool the air when present, although the rains will increase the moisture content. Early evening temperatures holding steady from 23-24 C with continuing high levels of moisture, making it feel as high as 32 C given the relative humidity. Be sure to stay well hydrated if out for elongated periods during the day.
Precipitation
Convective showers and thunderstorms are possible for much of the state of Wisconsin, although mostly for the later afternoon-early evening hours because of a passing cold front descending from Western Canada. Ahead of the front, daytime heating showers and thunderstorms are possible due to the buoyancy of the airmass through the day – note that some isolated thunderstorms could be reaching severe standards due to the abundant available energy present as well as the cold the passing cold front. Because of the isolated nature of these showers and storms, I would accompany the risk at 40%, with similar probabilities later in the evening to the early overnight period as the cold front approaches from the Northwest. Skies should remain partly cloudy during the later overnight hours. The cold front is not expected to drop temperatures and humidity significantly for Thursday as another area of low pressure advances from the West and maintaining winds from the SE-SSE and bringing the continued risk for storms later in the day.
Wind
With the center of the influencing low pressure system over Manitoba by the evening hours, I anticipate light winds from mostly the Southeast. There may be locally occasional South-Southeasterlies (SSE) due the funneling effect of Lake Winnebago to your South, tilting the winds a touch towards the NNE by the time they reach Appleton. Speeds should be light at 7-11 km/h with slightly breezier conditions during the afternoon to as high as 16 km/h, and so smoke should be blowing mostly straight away from where you will be stationed towards the back end of the firing site and sometimes gently to your left. Smoke buildup will occasionally be rapid due to very high humidity and light winds, especially if or when the display becomes more active. Luckily, however, the winds are expected to blow mostly towards the display from the SE, so this should allow for a mostly decent viewing and clearing. Even if winds should tilt away from their anticipated direction by evening, I personally do not believe that the change will be enough to send the smoke towards the audience – in fact, the winds across central and central-Northern parts of the U.S are likely experiencing wind velocities similar to what you will be witnessing.
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That’s the way the weather should generally work. In essence, the air is very warm to hot standards with very high humidity. Showers and mid-late afternoon as well as early evening thunderstorms are possible. Winds light and blowing mostly from behind you.
I also wanted to take a moment and congratulate you on your achievement. Indeed, that letter was certainly very interesting, and as I had stated previously, it is a real honor that a display dedicated to a seasonally-oriented theme was selected to be performed live! It is fantastic to see that your good work will come to fruition, especially since you provided the theme with so much vitality!
I look forward to your report and experience, and, like Fred also said, I wish you a safe and enjoyable trip to Wisconsin. Luckily for you, you’re heading into the nice Summer weather (assuming of course that you like the high humidity!)
Trav.
