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Weather Cooperation (or not) for Summer 2010.

 
 
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Author Smoke
Member 
#31 | Posted: 24 Jul 2010 01:10 
In reference to my above message, the newer model outputs haven't changed dramatically, although the low pressure system has been exhibiting signs of slowing. In any case, here is what to typically expect in terms of weather conditions for today, July 24th.

Temperature/Humidity

Temperatures are likely reaching the very high 20s C (possibly striking 30 C depending on how much sun is present) during the afternoon as that nearly endless warm frontal boundary continues to migrate further to the North during the early afternoon hours today. Progressively, high to potentially very high humidity will settle into Southern Quebec and Eastern Ontario for the afternoon hours, again because of the warm sector's closer proximity to the regions. Consequently, humidex values will read into the high 30s C during the day (37 C) and low 30s (I believe 33 C) by late evening along with temperatures still remaining as high as 25 C at this time, especially in the metropolitan area.

Precipitation

The area of low pressure has slowed a little, which is somewhat affecting the timing and influence of that cold frontal wave on Southern Quebec that I had mentioned above. However, the risk for convective showers and thunderstorms is still possible spanning from the afternoon hours due to the warm front (30% P.O.P) and through to the early overnight period (40% in the evening to 60% P.O.P overnight) because of the passage of the cold front. As the cold front begins to gradually close in, the air will become increasingly unstable, producing the risk for convective showers and thunderstorms (mostly non-severe storms). I wouldn't rule out the possibility of isolated severe thunderstorm cells to erupt during the very late afternoon-early evening timeframe due to the reasonable amount of energy available, as well as the humidity - the chance for severe weather becomes greater once you head Southwest into Eastern and Southern Ontario. Ultimately, skies should be mostly cloudy. ***A reminder, once again, that this sort of setup does not automatically suggest that it will indeed pour at any given point of the day, but rather that the risk for rain showers and thunderstorms are possible due to a buoyant atmosphere. Not everyone in the affected areas will in fact see unsettled conditions - the day is actually generally pleasant and Summer-like.

Wind

Winds are likely Southwesterly in tendency through the day due to the positioning of the system. I still believe that winds could shift slightly more from the South-Southwest by early evening. Either way, smoke should be often moving to the right of the audience at La Ronde, though if Southwesterlies remain present, smoke could occasionally affect spectators at the extreme right end. Winds are light for the evening hours at 12-15 km/h, though breezier at 18-21 km/h during the early afternoon (occasional gusts up to 28 km/h).
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That's the way the weather should behave. In general, light Southwesterly to gradual South-Southwesterly winds with very warm temperatures into the mid 20s C coupled with high to very humidity. Convective showers and thunderstorms possible, particularly during the very late afternoon period and onwards into the overnight - otherwise, mostly cloudy skies (with some defined cumulus congestus clouds) by that point in time. Most of the day is pleasant.

As was the case last week, a typical July day on the horizon.

Trav.

Author Smoke
Member 
#32 | Posted: 24 Jul 2010 11:32 
As mentioned in the other thread, the system has showed some additional signs of slowing down in the model runs from this morning. Because of the delay, severe weather is less likely in Southern Quebec as compared to Southern Ontario later today. There is still the slight possibility for isolated showers (30%) this afternoon and during the late evening hours (with the odd t-shower), which I would accompany with a 30% P.O.P. (from 40%) - 60% still holds truthful for the overnight period. In general, skies should be about 70% cloudy this evening.

Current cloud cover is associated with the warm front, but there will be some sunny breaks. Winds are still expected to mostly blow smoke adequately to the right of the audience at La Ronde.

For everything else, please refer to my previous post as the information provided still holds true.

Trav.

Author Saluteness
Member 
#33 | Posted: 24 Jul 2010 16:54 
Hey Trav,

By the looks of this: http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_xL7aFL3PdP0/TEtTldcr7JI/AAAAAAAAABU/lVcq9I70 pl4/s1600/IMAG0004.JPG

Looks like theres a good chance of rain. But hopefully it won't last too long. I hope.

Pat

Author Smoke
Member 
#34 | Posted: 30 Jul 2010 00:44 
As an area of high pressure is settling into Eastern Canada for much of this weekend, atmospheric instability is suppressed, and so I do not anticipate precipitation development for tomorrow (the final day of July, sadly) in its entirety - relative humidity/saturation levels at the surface and aloft are much too low. Temperatures will likely be hovering around 18 C by late evening Saturday in the metropolitan area (around 24-25 C during the day) while humidity levels should be at borderline low-moderate standards.

With an area of high pressure, winds tend to be more variable in nature along with generally light to very light speeds. However, current model projections are showing the center of the system moving Eastward into the Atlantic by late evening, which suggests to me light Southerly to South-Southwesterly (SSW) winds - directional tendencies that would be ideal for all spectators. Speeds are certainly light between 7-10 km/h, which would still be reasonable considering the humidity level range.

As always, I'll provide a final update later this evening to confirm these conditions, but I want to still keep tabs on particularly wind tendency as they can change in the latter progs (again due to high pressure). Either way, I am expecting light winds under mostly clear skies with a few cumulus clouds. Temperatures a little on the cool side for the late evening with low-moderate humidity.

Trav.

Author Smoke
Member 
#35 | Posted: 31 Jul 2010 11:14 
After reviewing the later model simulation outputs both from yesterday and this morning, the information provided above still remains truthful. Here are the atmospheric conditions to typically expect for today, July 31st:

Temperature/Humidity

I'm expecting temperatures during the day today to attain 23 C along with a cool late evening temperature of 18 C (potentially 19 C in the metropolitan area). Humidity levels are leaning more on the low side, so they are naturally negligible in initiating even a slight humidex reading. Winds are very light, however, so it shouldn't feel too much cooler. Reasons behind the fairly rapid temperature drop (especially overnight) is simply because of the influence of high atmospheric pressure, low humidity and relatively calm conditions, which all favor rapid radiational cooling following dusk.

Precipitation

Not much to note here this time around. With an area of high pressure and the accompanied saturated-deprived atmosphere at low to high level, precipitation development is not really expected. There will be, however, a few groups of cumulus clouds due to weak atmospheric instability through the day, but none of them will be too defined on the vertical.

Wind

This is where it is a little tricky. Speeds again are very light throughout the day and into the evening while direction is variable in Southern Quebec. I am still anticipating winds to shift from the Southwest to more South-Southwest (SSW) to even South-Southeast (SSE) by late evening, and so smoke should be very slowly blowing predominantly to the right of the audience at La Ronde. I don't expect much in the way of rapid smoke buildup due to the largely low humidity levels. However, there may very well be periods of heavier accumulations when the display becomes more active due to the very light nature of the winds, which I'm expecting to now be calm to 4-5 km/h.
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That's the way the weather should typically behave. To sum it up, mostly clear skies with a few low cumulus cloud clusters. Humidity levels are generally low and temperatures are a little on the cool side by late evening. I suspect winds from the SSW-SSE by late evening and continuing to exhibit very light tendencies (a touch breezier during the mid-afternoon). The UV index is high today at 8, so protect yourself accordingly if outdoors for elongated periods.

A pleasant day on the way.

And Pat, that is a nice picture you shared above. The low dark cumulus clouds in combination with the overcasted mid-high level variety commonly point to some form of rain in the upcoming hours - that was in fact the case last week, though luckily not as heavy as the downpour during the American display.

Trav.

Author Saluteness
Member 
#36 | Posted: 31 Jul 2010 18:29 
This display seems to have anticipation of great weather ahead of us tonight. However, the wind is a factor that might have it's bad parts. As you mentioned, that the wind is (most likely) headed towards the right of the audience, we must hope that we are able to see most of the display without buildup of smoke blocking the view of many people.

My setup photos are on the team Goteborgs topic.

Pat

Author Smoke
Member 
#37 | Posted: 4 Aug 2010 23:54 
Heavy instability continues to affect Ontario and Quebec due to a series of systems bringing with them hot and very humid conditions today, tomorrow and over the last couple of days - I haven't really seen an atmopsheric setup like this particular one since 2006 and 2004. I did go on a little storm chase around Montreal two days ago on August 2nd when heading to Mont-Royal to obtain some photographs. Here are some photos and video that I wanted to share:

August 2nd:

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3180.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3142.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3149.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3169.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3158.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3167.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3170.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3159.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3134.jpg

Videos:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=84F0kL40ivA

Cloud to ground lightning:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IPrfnhLJsyU

Spectacular streak lightning:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxFKMoIM6k0

August 3rd:

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3209.jpg

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PH8DQZtoWE8

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WUDpvgKZ0fo

August 4th:

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3247.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3249.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3251.jpg

Video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jUV0zCha4ls

A tornado may have been spawned with a severe thunderstorm yesterday afternoon (August 3rd) near St-Eustache while flash-flooding rains have been reported in numerous areas in Southern Quebec, including here in parts of Montreal. Thunderstorms are again possible for tomorrow (August 5th), a few which could be reaching severe standards in the mid afternoon-evening period.
---------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------
I was initially going to bring this up previously, but the weather didn't permit for ideal viewing of the rare Aurora Borealis tonight and last night due to heavy rains, thunderstorms, partly cloudy skies and patches of fog. In any case, here are some stunning viewer photos that were taken:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/yahooeditorspicks/galleries/7215762465332 5820/

Though it is common to witness this nocturnal spectacle at high to polar latitudes as well as occasionally further South into the mid-latitudinal regions, particularly intense solar eruptions, called coronal mass ejections, are capable of rendering the aurora visible to those residing further South following dusk - in this case, the rare powerful eruption was set off since August 1st, but the unleashed charged particles heading towards the Earth only arrived until last night and will linger once more into tonight (August 4th).

Solar maximums and minimums typically complete their cycles every 9-11 years. When an intense solar eruption takes place - that is, when there is a maximum in solar activity - it ejects an enormous amount of rapidly traveling charged particles (plasma) through interstellar space. The average speed of these particles is roughly 400 km per second, but are distinctively higher in both speed and energy when solar eruptions are strong. As they approach the Earth, these particles interact with the planet's magnetic field and are deflected away, creating an invisible cap-like shape around the planet along magnetic field lines. Some of these particles, however, pierce into the upper atmosphere if the magnetic field becomes overwhelmed, where they collide with the molecules and atoms of various atmospheric gases. Some of the energy from the charged particles is transferred to the electrons of the molecules of the gases, exciting them in the process while they attain higher levels of energy. Once the electrons progressively de-excite and revert back to their original orbit and energy level, they then give off radiation in the form of a photon of light, and it is this light that produces the awesome fading-emerging curtain/wave of colors in the upper atmosphere. The color rendered ultimately depends on the gases that the charged particles interact with - for atomic oxygen, the colors are commonly green or red, whereas atomic nitrogen would give off red and violet.

Other than that, pleasant weather on the way for Saturday once tomorrow's cold front passes through. More details by tomorrow evening.

Trav.

Author fredbastien
Member 
#38 | Posted: 5 Aug 2010 23:43 
Hi Trav! I saw a spectacular lightning show tonight! I'm currently on the east side of Laval island. Around 9:00pm, we could see about one strike each 1-3 seconds! The thunderstorm was far away, though, since the thunder wasn't loud. For sure, that was related to the change of air system. I'm glad to have drier air for tomorrow and Saturday.

Fred

Author Smoke
Member 
#39 | Posted: 6 Aug 2010 02:26 
As expected, severe weather has rolled through many parts of Southern Quebec and Eastern Ontario yesterday afternoon (August 5th) and during the early evening hours (see videos below) along and ahead of a vigorous cold front sliding from the WNW-NW. As Fred stated above, the storms are related to this progressively changing airmass as cooler and drier air slowly settles in behind the cold front tonight and through today and Saturday. Notice the winds have shifted from SSW-SW to now the WNW-NW.

As far as the forecast goes for France's display tomorrow (Saturday), I am anticipating continuing pleasant and dry weather along with plenty of sunshine as an area of strong high pressure moves into much of Eastern Canada later today. Winds should be predominantly light during the day Saturday from variably the WSW to Westerlies. I am, however, expecting a shift to more SSW to SW by the late afternoon hours, which would be ideal for folks stationed at La Ronde as smoke blows mostly to the right. Speeds should increase slightly to about 14-18 km/h by the early evening from the 8-11 km/h during the day due a stronger building pressure gradient. Temperatures are a little on the cool side by late evening at roughly 19-20 C in the metropolitan area (feeling a touch cooler with the possible moderate winds). Humidity levels are low and skies will be mostly clear with some high level cirrus cloud.

Other than that, expect a September-like Friday with a mix of sun and cloud through the day (slight risk of a brief morning shower) with breezy Northwesterlies. Temperatures struggling to hit 20 C.
---------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------
The computer weather models did a fantastic job predicting where the strongest storm cells would emerge over the last few days since August 2nd. As I had mentioned previously, I haven't seen an atmospheric setup like this since 2006 and 2004 where we had four consecutive days where severe weather was possible (and actually occurring for every one of these days in and around the island). For yesterday evening's severe storm, I literally watched it develop diligently since it was in its infancy and was so sure that it would eventually become a massive cumulonimbus due to the sun we received following the afternoon storm, the heavy humidity and the passing cold front.

Around 9:00pm, we could see about one strike each 1-3 seconds!

Fred, you're right about the lightning frequency associated with this storm. When lightning is frequent, it suggests that the storm's updrafts are quite powerful and that rapid condensation is taking place. As the influx of warm moist air becomes greater as a result of these updrafts, more ice crystals are produced at mid-high levels of the cloud, which facilitates frequent lightning. At times, frequent lightning can point to a tornadic storm as well, and there were some points where mild lowering was observed along the shelf cloud. No tornado touchdowns, however. Glad you enjoyed the storm from a distance - it must have been truly something to behold! I noticed the line of multicell storms primarily affected the West Island, Southwestern Laval and parts of central Montreal. For us here in the West Island, it was flash after flash with heavy rains (mixed with some pea-sized hail) and strong winds (up to 70 km/h) coming from the storm's downdrafts. There was some localized flash flooding as well as some isolated power outages following the storm.

Here are some photos I took (radar imagery included) as well as some video of the storms that came through yesterday afternoon and evening:

August 5th:

Afternoon storms:

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3287.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3269.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3282.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3282.jpg

Video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iBgDoGYmuW8

Evening storm:

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3318.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3316.jpg

Stages of growth:

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3297.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3298.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3301.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3305.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3307.jpg

Videos:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=25WEgeO5v0Y

Eventually more frequent lightning:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mSNEmi9szPw

Storm overhead:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lBOBNKs3dSg

And here are some beautiful crepuscular rays following the first afternoon storm that skimmed us to the North:

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3280.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3281.jpg

And a sunset image before the storm:

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3303.jpg

What a week this was for thunderstorms in Montreal - quite a rare occurrence indeed.

Trav.

Author Smoke
Member 
#40 | Posted: 7 Aug 2010 00:16 
What was stated in the first section of my above post still holds true in its entirety for the final entrant. As such, here is what to generally expect in terms of weather for Saturday, August 7th:

Temperature/Humidity

Because of the area of high pressure in place, daytime highs are expected to remain unseasonably cool at 21-22 C, although it naturally feels warm when you're in the sun. I anticipate late evening temperatures on the cool side at around 17-18 C in the metropolitan area, but unlike last week, the existing winds may provide an extra little chill. Humidity levels will continue on maintaining low standards through the day.

Precipitation

Following a week of volatile weather, I conversely do not expect any precipitation to develop for Saturday due to atmospheric stability and low relative humidity at high and low level. There will, however, be some clusters of cumulus clouds and high level cirrus during the day because of very mild instability, but like last week, very few of them are expected to be defined on the vertical - following dusk, it should be mostly clear with a few lingering cumulus clouds.

Wind

Winds are expected to be breezy during the afternoon hours at 19-22 km/h from the West-Southwest (WSW) to eventually Southwesterlies by mid-afternoon. The windiest of conditions (due to a steep pressure gradient) should fall predominantly between 2-5:00 p.m at 22-26 km/h with gusts up to 34 km/h. I am detecting winds becoming lighter by evening at 11-15 km/h and tilting more from the SSW, and so smoke should be heading adequately mostly to the right of the audience at La Ronde by 10:00 p.m. Rapid smoke buildup shouldn't be an issue due to low humidity and ideal wind speeds.
---------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------
That's the way the weather should work for our final competitor of the 2010 edition of Montreal fireworks. To sum it up, a mostly clear night with light South-Southwesterly (SSW) winds and low humidity under a few tranquil cumulus clouds.

Edit: And here is a viewer photo of a snapped tree in the Laval area from last night's storm:

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/your_weather/details/620/3091933/1/ca qc0142/plpcities?ref=ugc_city_thumbs

Trav.

Author Smoke
Member 
#41 | Posted: 9 Aug 2010 13:40 
Hi STL,

Your forecast for Wednesday, August 11th, in Appleton, Wisconsin is as follows:

Temperature/Humidity

Temperatures are expected to attain the very high 20s C and possibly low 30s C (as much as 31 C depending on the amount of sunshine present) with very high humidity (sticky), making it feel like into the very high 30s C and potentially the very low 40s C. Late day showers and thunderstorms, if any, however, will briefly cool the air when present, although the rains will increase the moisture content. Early evening temperatures holding steady from 23-24 C with continuing high levels of moisture, making it feel as high as 32 C given the relative humidity. Be sure to stay well hydrated if out for elongated periods during the day.

Precipitation

Convective showers and thunderstorms are possible for much of the state of Wisconsin, although mostly for the later afternoon-early evening hours because of a passing cold front descending from Western Canada. Ahead of the front, daytime heating showers and thunderstorms are possible due to the buoyancy of the airmass through the day – note that some isolated thunderstorms could be reaching severe standards due to the abundant available energy present as well as the cold the passing cold front. Because of the isolated nature of these showers and storms, I would accompany the risk at 40%, with similar probabilities later in the evening to the early overnight period as the cold front approaches from the Northwest. Skies should remain partly cloudy during the later overnight hours. The cold front is not expected to drop temperatures and humidity significantly for Thursday as another area of low pressure advances from the West and maintaining winds from the SE-SSE and bringing the continued risk for storms later in the day.

Wind

With the center of the influencing low pressure system over Manitoba by the evening hours, I anticipate light winds from mostly the Southeast. There may be locally occasional South-Southeasterlies (SSE) due the funneling effect of Lake Winnebago to your South, tilting the winds a touch towards the NNE by the time they reach Appleton. Speeds should be light at 7-11 km/h with slightly breezier conditions during the afternoon to as high as 16 km/h, and so smoke should be blowing mostly straight away from where you will be stationed towards the back end of the firing site and sometimes gently to your left. Smoke buildup will occasionally be rapid due to very high humidity and light winds, especially if or when the display becomes more active. Luckily, however, the winds are expected to blow mostly towards the display from the SE, so this should allow for a mostly decent viewing and clearing. Even if winds should tilt away from their anticipated direction by evening, I personally do not believe that the change will be enough to send the smoke towards the audience – in fact, the winds across central and central-Northern parts of the U.S are likely experiencing wind velocities similar to what you will be witnessing.
---------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------
That’s the way the weather should generally work. In essence, the air is very warm to hot standards with very high humidity. Showers and mid-late afternoon as well as early evening thunderstorms are possible. Winds light and blowing mostly from behind you.

I also wanted to take a moment and congratulate you on your achievement. Indeed, that letter was certainly very interesting, and as I had stated previously, it is a real honor that a display dedicated to a seasonally-oriented theme was selected to be performed live! It is fantastic to see that your good work will come to fruition, especially since you provided the theme with so much vitality!

I look forward to your report and experience, and, like Fred also said, I wish you a safe and enjoyable trip to Wisconsin. Luckily for you, you’re heading into the nice Summer weather (assuming of course that you like the high humidity!)

Trav.

Author Smoke
Member 
#42 | Posted: 13 Aug 2010 01:00 
Ah, the last set of forecasts for the 2010 competition.

The atmospheric setup coming into play is expected to bring with it very warm and moist conditions throughout roughly the next several days. What is happening is that the area of high pressure that has been in place for the last couple of days (yesterday inclusively) is slowly heading Eastward into the Atlantic, allowing for a nice returning Southeasterly to South-Southeasterly flow (SSE) to take over for the next few days. In addition, an intensifying area of low pressure (the same one that is soon affecting STL's current location in Appleton, WI for Friday) is heading Eastward, which is amplifying the SSE circulation of warm moist air into much of Eastern Canada for the weekend and the start of the work week. Consequently, Saturday, August 14th, is expected to be Summer-like with very warm temperatures into the high 20s C (as high as 29 C) along with high humidity, making it feel as high as 36-37 C - you'll notice the humidity building progressively today (Friday). Temperatures should remain as high as 25 C in the metropolitan area by late evening.

Because of the atmospheric pressure tendencies and a strengthening pressure gradient, I believe that winds will be moderate for Saturday at 15-19 km/h with occasional gusts of up to 26-28 km/h. Wind speeds during the evening are likely the same at 15-19 km/h and maintaining a SSE directional tendency, and so smoke should be, as was the case with France, blowing fairly quickly well to the right of the audience at La Ronde during the 10 minute display.

I am still monitoring precipitation models for Saturday evening because of slightly high relative humdity values at low and high level, but I do not expect rains and thunderstorms to really develop until early Sunday and onwards as the warm and cold fronts start advancing into the region. There will be some clusters of vertically defined cumulus clouds later in the day due to building instability, however.

In any case, I will confirm these conditions later this evening, especially in terms of precipitation.
---------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------
Weather conditions are fairly ideal to see the meteor shower taking place tonight and Friday night as skies will likely be mostly clear, though a little more hazy with the higher humidity. The best time to catch the event is between midnight and towards dawn - it is also preferable to be away from excessive light when scanning the skies for the shower. Reports state that you can see an average of roughly 20 shooting stars per hour.

Also, at and following dusk Friday, look straight to the West to see Venus (the bright object in the sky) joined by a crescent moon phase. After sunset, you may also be able to get a glimpse of Saturn and Mars closeby to Venus, all forming a triangle (the case for the last several days). It will, however, be a little tougher to see the other two planets if there is copious amounts of light obscuring your viewing. Locate Venus first before the other two planets.

Trav.

Author Smoke
Member 
#43 | Posted: 14 Aug 2010 01:03 
What was stated in my previous message above still stands firmly for Saturday's weather. As such, here is your final forecast for the 2010 fireworks competition:

Temperature/Humidity

With the strength of the SSE circulation, I anticipate daytime highs to reach 29 C, along with high humidity making it feel as high as 36 C. Humidity will remain high during the evening hours with temperatures steady at 24-25 C in the metropolitan area by the late evening period and feeling as much as 31 C.

Precipitation

I do not anticipate precipitation to develop during the late evening period Saturday because of blocking high pressure locked in place over the Atlantic, but there will be some vertically defined cumulus cloud cover associated with moderate instability. Convective rains and thunderstorms (some isolated severe cells) are possible for Sunday through to Tuesday.

Wind

Winds are very likely out from the South-Southeast (SSE) with this Summer-like atmospheric setup and I am expecting speeds to remain moderate from 15-19 km/h with occasional gusts of up to 26-28 km/h. Winds will be slightly breezier (from the same direction) into the mid afternoon hours at 19-23 km/h with gusts of up to 32 km/h. The result is that winds should be blowing smoke quickly to the right of the audience at La Ronde. Smoke will appear thick in nature due to the high humidity.
---------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------
That's the way the weather should generally behave. To summarize, warm late evening temperatures with high humidity under some cloudy periods due to moderate instability. Winds breezy and blowing out from the SSE. Overall, a Summery next few days on the way!

And so concludes the weather reports for the 2010 fireworks competition. It was a real pleasure in providing all of the necessary information for each display as well as some coverage of the weather extremes we've come across in between since June. I hope that everything was satisfactory and useful. I will continue to periodically provide any celestial news or if we encounter any weather extremes in Southern Quebec, which is a possibility in the upcoming days starting tomorrow (Sunday).

Trav.

Author Smoke
Member 
#44 | Posted: 16 Aug 2010 23:59 
As stated briefly in the post above, severe weather, as expected, rolled through much of Southern Quebec today, including here in Montreal early this morning. The severe thunderstorms were triggered by a vigorous slow-moving cold front, which set off powerful storms yesterday in Northern and Southern Ontario yesterday and in Southern Quebec today, one storm of which may have spawned an unconfirmed tornado East of Drummondville this afternoon.

I am happy to say that TWN once again aired some of my footage of this morning's storm. I would also like to share the videos with you guys.

Radar imagery:

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3383.jpg

Videos (I capture many beautiful CGs (cloud to ground) lightning discharges throughout):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lEurnp_OiD0

Storm overhead (a couple loud thunderclaps):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9z8a0MuQp6k

And a storm I captured while on Mount Royal on the 10th of August (looking roughly 50 km Northeast) when chasing:

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/CIMG3363.jpg

As you can tell now, humidity levels have dropped and winds were gusty today after the passage of the cold front.

Trav.

Author Smoke
Member 
#45 | Posted: 26 Aug 2010 11:45 
Don't say goodbye to Summer just yet. As I had been watching over the last 48 hours, a strong ridge of high pressure is slowly going to be persistently hovering over Eastern Canada, permitting for a good stretch of Summer-like weather starting this weekend. As such, very warm/hot and moist conditions are expected to engage Eastern Canada as the area of strengthening high pressure (along with the aid an intensifying low pressure system out West) circulates this tropical airmass from the Southwest, giving us a beautiful end to August and an equally compelling start to the month of September. This area of high pressure will also play an important role in steering Hurricane Danielle away from the Maritimes in the long range.

Enjoy the upcoming weather.

Trav.

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 Weather Cooperation (or not) for Summer 2010.

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