What is causing the possible rains on Wednesday and the equally possible severe thunderstorm development later today and this evening is a cold front that extends as far down South into the Texas/Mexico border, while it was responsible for much of the severe weather South of the border (no confirmed tornadoes as of yet, thankfully). The central air pressure within the low itself has been dropping, so this storm has actually been quite volatile in the last 24 hours and continues to be vehement as it tracks West/Northwest.
To the point, while it will be unsettled for most of Wednesday, there is the
risk of consistent rain showers and lingering storms from the same associated cold front. However, there is a fair possibility that the front will be out of the area by the time the evening period is ready to commence. I suspect that most of the rain will fall during the day, but what we really need to pay close attention to is the actual
speed of the front itself. The front is currently moving at its initial speed, but models also suggest that it could equally slow down. I'm going to have to pay closer attention to this, but EC is still reporting a more promising forecast while TWN is holding on to a 90% probability of precipitation, though only for the afternoon period (the evening forecast is yet to be released later today).
At this point in time, given the speed of the front, I anticipate that things will ease by tomorrow evening and push off towards the Maritime provinces. I don't believe that stagant humidity will be an issue (compared to what it will be today) because the cold front will clear it away and subsequently drop dewpoint values as it advances throughout today and Wednesday. As such, the air will be gradually replaced by much cooler and fresher air, though it's a shame that it will be cooler than normal following Wednesday, so best enjoy the heat today, guys, just in case.
*In the meantime, ahead and along the front, squall line thunderstorms will develop (some of which could be severe in nature) as they track West. Not to say that we will indeed witness a t-storm, but if they do occur, it's quite possible for them to reach severe criteria, so keep that in mind this afternoon into the evening hours.
I have a strong feeling that I'll be quite busy watching the weather much more today, both for the fireworks and seeing if storms will develop with the passage of this vigorous front.
And let's hope for the best with respect for the weather, especially since we don't want to start a fireworks season with rain.
Trav.
