Greetings,

As I'm sure you all know, the fireworks competition of 2007 is set to start very soon, and it's therefore mandatory to monitor weather conditions to an optimal level as it is a decisive influential factor in both any fireworks display and general attendance.

I will be posting reports whenever I get the information and analyses, but if you choose to also provide updates, I highly recommend that you only post them when closer to the day of presentation rather than several days in advance since the prognostic forecasts are much less credible for a good percentage of the time.

Let's hope for a successful season without any interruptions with respect to the weather, so this way every competitor can give it their absolute best.

Edit: In other weather related news, I hope everyone has been enjoying the gorgeous sunny and hot weather for almost the past week. You can expect this to continue (with the slight risk of a non-severe t-storm) for a good while longer, for there is a persistent and blocked high pressure system keeping things so fair, delightful and Summer-like.

Regards,

Trav.

I begin to be afraid about the forecast for Wednesday. As time goes, it looks that the forecast becomes worse.

I suspect that we must be prepared for a warm and very humid night. Not the best condition to launch the firework season and to bring a large crowd to the show, especially since most have to work the next morning.

Fred

The latest forecast (15:45) from Environment Canada is looking somewhat better for Wednesday now - it looks like the rain will hold off until Thursday. Let's hope so!

Let's also hope that England, on the 27th, has better luck than they traditionally have!

Paul.

What is causing the possible rains on Wednesday and the equally possible severe thunderstorm development later today and this evening is a cold front that extends as far down South into the Texas/Mexico border, while it was responsible for much of the severe weather South of the border (no confirmed tornadoes as of yet, thankfully). The central air pressure within the low itself has been dropping, so this storm has actually been quite volatile in the last 24 hours and continues to be vehement as it tracks West/Northwest.

To the point, while it will be unsettled for most of Wednesday, there is the risk of consistent rain showers and lingering storms from the same associated cold front. However, there is a fair possibility that the front will be out of the area by the time the evening period is ready to commence. I suspect that most of the rain will fall during the day, but what we really need to pay close attention to is the actual speed of the front itself. The front is currently moving at its initial speed, but models also suggest that it could equally slow down. I'm going to have to pay closer attention to this, but EC is still reporting a more promising forecast while TWN is holding on to a 90% probability of precipitation, though only for the afternoon period (the evening forecast is yet to be released later today).

At this point in time, given the speed of the front, I anticipate that things will ease by tomorrow evening and push off towards the Maritime provinces. I don't believe that stagant humidity will be an issue (compared to what it will be today) because the cold front will clear it away and subsequently drop dewpoint values as it advances throughout today and Wednesday. As such, the air will be gradually replaced by much cooler and fresher air, though it's a shame that it will be cooler than normal following Wednesday, so best enjoy the heat today, guys, just in case.

*In the meantime, ahead and along the front, squall line thunderstorms will develop (some of which could be severe in nature) as they track West. Not to say that we will indeed witness a t-storm, but if they do occur, it's quite possible for them to reach severe criteria, so keep that in mind this afternoon into the evening hours.

I have a strong feeling that I'll be quite busy watching the weather much more today, both for the fireworks and seeing if storms will develop with the passage of this vigorous front.

And let's hope for the best with respect for the weather, especially since we don't want to start a fireworks season with rain.

Trav.

Hey guys,

I just looked at some later models this morning, and the front will move through quickly (it's showing signs of even speeding up later on), so we should be fine tomorrow evening and even now in the afternoon. At first, I found the forecasted rains on Wednesday a little strange because frontal systems usually advance quickly and depart fairly rapidly as well (unless it was influenced by blocking high pressure like we saw a few weeks ago), which is why I thought the forecast could also change for the better.

Though the air is still slightly unstable in the morning hours, nothing should be too much of concern following that period as the air behind the front is much more stable, cool and less humid. However, it might be necessary to bring a light jacket since it will be on the cool side as the sun sets and especially since the daytime high is only about 20-22 C. The winds themselves may cause a slight chilling as well.

In addition to looking out and tracking the storms this afternoon and tonight, I'm still waiting on the final data for the wind direction and speed for tomorrow evening, though I think it shouldn't be a problem. However, I'm confident to state that when the front finally comes through, we can expect the winds to eventually shift from the Southwest to the West and Northwest while I anticipate that they will be between 15-20 km/h tomorrow evening, which is very nice and ideal to clear the smoke away. Sky conditions are fair with variable clouds and perhaps some cloudy periods.

All in all, tomorrow's weather will make it seem like today's never happened.

Edit: You guys will notice the clouds appearing and swelling up in the next few hours into the afternoon; good indication of instability.

Trav.

As expected, we should be fine tomorrow evening with winds between 15-20 km/h from the West, and possibly blowing from the Northwest at times. The temperature should be between 19 to 21 Celsius as well, though it may be slightly warmer in the metropolitan area because of enhanced heat retention in the region at night.

*Oh yes, just to keep you updated, we are now currently out of the severe thunderstorm watch. However, at about 2:00 p.m this afternoon, there was some impressive lightning strikes that were visible from the West Island. I'm hoping you got to see the strikes from wherever you were as they were quite stunning; I was particularly fond of that one blood red serpent-shaped cloud-to-ground lightning that struck North of here. I did take some photos of the cloud formations during the storm I witnessed today, so I can always post them if any of you are interested.

Other than that, enjoy the fireworks tomorrow evening without having to worry about the weather. Again if you feel like it, you can keep a light sweater/light jacket handy if the breezes make things a little cool for you.

Trav.

Good evening,

Similarly to the weather scenario we experienced last week, a cold front will yet again be slicing through the hot and humid air mass we started experiencing somewhat today and will feel even more tomorrow and on Wednesday. What differentiates this week's situation is that the front will be coming throughout the day on Wednesday rather than before hand, so the risk of thunderstorms (possibly the potential of turning severe) will exist.

What we don't know as of yet is what the conditions will be like in the evening hours (I have to track the speed and position of the front before I draw conclusions). I suspect that the risk will still exist in the evening hours, but because of the loss of daytime heating, storm development will have less of a chance to become intense, though still very much possible if conditions are right.

In any case, sadly (if you're a fan of the heat), once that front comes through, it will flush out the heat and humidity by Thursday and especially into Friday. But in its wake, it will sporadically unleash thunderstorms, and hence the risk in Southern Ontario and Southern Quebec.

So enjoy the heat until then! Tomorrow is the hotttest day and is forecasted to reach a high of 32-34 C with humidex values surpassing 40 C!

*In other news, I've been monitoring the weather in Western Canada, in particular, because they've been witnessing severe weather for almost the past 2 weeks. As I'm sure you already know by now, there have been devastating tornado touchdowns (F3s and F4s even). The hardest hit locality was Elie, Manitoba with the infamous F4, but thankfully, there were no fatalities and no major injuries, which is exceedingly rare with tornadoes of this magnitude. 8-10 tornadoes were reported and confirmed since Friday.

It goes to show that the U.S is not the only country to see strong tornadic activity!

Trav.

Good evening,

I'm concerned about the weather conditions tomorrow evening. The cold front, which is presently now a pair of cold fronts, will be on our doorstep tomorrow evening and the risk/potential of severe thunderstorms will certainly exist from the afternoon into the evening hours. In addition, ahead of the front in the early afternoon, heavy t-storms are also quite possible to develop. Regardless of the possible severity, it's not out of the question that rains and thunderstorms will threaten Southern Ontario and Southern Quebec for most of this time.

I've been monitoring the positions and relative speeds of the fronts for some time and according to several models, they will be affecting many regions in the late afternoon hours as well as the evening. By the overnight hours, the risk of severe weather will obviously subside, but there will be a continued chance of lingering showers and the risk of non-severe t-storms. In the early afternoon, ahead of the front, heavy t-storms are also quite possible to form.

I'd also like to point out that there will be plenty of humidity lingering throughout the night (humidex around a sticky 38 C) until that front completely sweeps out the heat and humidity by Thursday. If assuming that no rain falls, smoke build up should not be a problem because we have moderate winds still coming from the Southwest at 20-30 km/h.

Regardless of whatever the chance may be at the last minute, I'd very much advise everyone to bring their umbrellas and to keep the radios handy to listen in for further updates. It's all a matter of whether or not it rains/thunders at 10:00 p.m because precipitation associated with cold fronts, particularly t-storms, have random behavior in terms of development and thus not everywhere will necessarily see storms (you either get them, or you don't), so let's hope that we are spared at 10:00 p.m.

In all, be prepared for another extremely hot day with humidex values in the 40s while temperatures remain between 32 to as much as 35 C tomorrow (my kind of weather!). At the same time, keep your eyes on the sky tomorrow (Wednesday) afternoon and evening since I can certainly guarantee instability. That said, I'd rather not like to see England at the mercy of harsh weather, yet again.

I think that covers everything important that I wanted to mention so that you'll all be prepared for tomorrow's weather. If anything changes, I'll be sure to post the updates. Until then, you can be sure that I'll be on the lookout all day.

Trav.

Good day,

Well, this is my last report for the day, but there may be a chance that we could be spared from storms for the next little while as I'm not detecting any storm activity on radar since the last small t-storm we just witnessed.

Everything I said in my previous post still stands, though, and there's always a possibility of something developing, so be equipted, just in case.

Other than that, please enjoy the English display!

Trav.

As promised, here are the pictures of the massive cumulonimbus (thundercloud) that was present for about more than 2 hours in development before the display even took place. I put the pictures in the order I took them, from when it was growing to when it began giving birth to lightning in the distance. Here are the links (these were all taken from De Lorimier):

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/DSC00374.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/DSC00375.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/DSC00376.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/DSC00378.jpg


Getting there:

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/DSC00379.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/DSC00380.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/DSC00381.jpg


Until finally:

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/DSC00383.jpg

Edit: Here are two more of the small storm (with a nice entrance) that occurred this afternoon:

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/DSC00387.jpg

http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b132/Rain12/DSC00388.jpg


Hope you liked them! What a frantic evening that was.

Trav.

Perhaps it was best if there were no fireworks happening tomorrow seeing that there will be rain and embedded thundershowers taking place throughout most of the day.

That said, it's curious to see if whether or not there will be precipitation falling at 10:00 p.m tomorrow.

Edit: Actually, it wouldn't have been so bad after all today with mostly cloudy skies and accompanied on and off showers/embedded thundershowers interspersed with some possible sunny breaks. This evening will be mainly cloudy with the chance of showers. All the action will be in Southern and Southwestern Ontario with the possibility of severe t-storms.

Trav.

We shouldn't face any weather problem tonight despite 70% of rain. Even if it does rain, we will see maxmium 2-4mm of rain, which is practically nothing. It might come down torrentially, but it won't last long.

Hopefully, we'll be spared again.

Hi Enkil,

The expected accumulations of precipitation are often misleading. That same figure range (about 1-5 mm) arose earlier this afternoon and we received far more than that value in a very short amount of time due to the convective activity involved. That said, actual accumulations typically depend on the type of system formations associated with them; convection can deal copious rains in as little as 5 mins in many cases. Other than that, in my general observations, if rain typically falls regardless of what it's associated with, it ends up lingering beyond the initial range than what was expected. If nothing happens, well, then that's another story altogether.

On a side note, there's no fireworks this evening, so at least we won't have to put up with the miserable cool and wet weather tonight. Latest radar imagery sucks, but it's more disappointing for those in many parts of the Eastern U.S with the big displays happening there for Independence Day because of frontal systems coming through.

In any case, I'll have more updates for Saturday. See you then, Enkil.

Trav.

p.s. Hope you saw the storm today and the storms 2 days ago.

Hi guys,

Well, it seems I'm quite busy with weather reports this season! Indeed there is, yet again, the risk of precipitation this evening, but what differentiates last week from this one is that the possible rains are associated with a warm front, and not its counterpart, the volatile cold front. In this sense, I do not expect much in the way for thundershowers this evening both because of the lack of the lifting mechanism and that there isn't ample moisture present to get them going. What I can say is that there is still the chance for embedded thundershowers, but the risk still remains with generals rains (you have to go at least a couple hours Southwest to be appreciative of the warmer temperatures and to escape cloud cover associated with the front).

I was in downtown earlier this afternoon for the Carrifiesta parade and there were no rains whatsoever (just dense and ubiquitous cloud cover), but the winds were quite powerful (gusts were over 50 km/h). The winds should be diminishing at an acceptable level, but I think it will be a little breezy throughout the night.

Unlike last week, there's no risk of severe weather, but I suspect we'll just be again hoping that no rain showers will fall at 10 in the area (we're at 40% probability as things stand). Humidity wouldn't be abundant like last week, but there should be enough wind regardless.

I am ashamed to say this, but even in July I still have to suggest to bring a jacket this evening, especially because of the breezier conditions. Also, as you may have already gathered, please equipt yourselves with an umbrella. Southern and Southwestern Ontario are very lucky with their strong heat at the moment (as much as 36 C in some places) and will continue to be that way for the next 48 hours.

Edit: The good news is that the rain is not expected to be heavy if it does occur, but it's just the fact that there's enough instability to generate light rains or showers.

Trav.

Good afternoon,

Heat and humidity will be the pattern for today and tomorrow, but as you may have noted, it will about 4-5 degrees Celsius cooler on Thursday; this is because of a cold front. Thus, the situation will be somewhat similar to what was seen for England's presentation day with the risk of thunderstorms (some could develop into potent storms) as that front moves through.

However, given the relative speed of the frontal movement, there may be a possibility of storms to continue in the evening hours until the cool air finally ushers in later on during the overnight hours behind the cold front. While storms are possible throughout the afternoon and evening, the possibility of severe weather is most favorable between 2-8 p.m. The good news is that, for now, the main squall line is expected to move in near dinner time tomorrow.

I'll continue to track the front for the next 36 hours and provide an additional update as we approach the time of presentation. Regardless of what happens, though, it should be understood to be prepared.

Trav.